ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Trudy this afternoon found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 95 kt in the northeast eyewall, with a dropsonde in that area suggesting surface winds of about 85 kt. The minimum central pressure was near 974 mb. Thus, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. During the last hour or so, the hurricane's cloud pattern has started to lose organization, and this is likely a sign of the forecast increasing shear and the upcoming weakening trend. The initial motion northwestward at a slower forward speed or 325/5 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest at an even slower forward speed is forecast as Trudy shears apart vertically and becomes steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the hurricane will move away from southwest and west-central Mexico this afternoon and then move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Trudy is starting to encounter increasing southwesterly shear and a drier and more stable airmass. The dynamical intensity guidance forecasts this combination to cause rapid weakening starting near the 12 h point at the latest, and the intensity forecast follows the trend of this guidance. The new forecast follows the previous forecast in showing Trudy degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone by 60 hours and dissipating in 3 or 4 days. Both of these could occur sooner than currently predicted. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although tropical storm conditions are moving away from the Mexican coast, gusts to tropical storm-force are possible this afternoon and evening over portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the Islas Marias. 2. Coastal flooding due to storm surge should subside this afternoon and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue to impact the southwest Mexican coast in Jalisco through tonight. This rainfall may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. 4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.5N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.9N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.1N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 21.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 21.9N 110.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 140.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 258 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 29W (CHAMPI) WITH A REBUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND CONTINUED EFFORTS TO REFORM AN EYE. A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP FROM THE NORTHERN SIDE AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK. THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND IMMINENT EYE FORMATION FURTHER SUPPORT THE POSSIBLE COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO DEFINITIVELY CONFIRM THIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEVELOPING WARM SPOT IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DVORAK AGENCY FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ARISES FROM BOTH THE LACK OF RECENT WIND SPEED DATA AS WELL AS THE SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE ERC. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER HONG KONG AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 109 KTS AT 181558Z CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 181730Z CIMSS AIDT: 106 KTS AT 181730Z CIMSS D-MINT: 114 KTS AT 181559Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 91 KTS AT 181800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR CENTERED OVER HONG KONG. AT TAU 60, A SLOW IN TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED AS A POLAR TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, CREATING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STR TO THE NORTH AND THE STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE WESTERN STR OVER SOUTHERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A RESULT AND THE NORTHEASTERN STR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, INCREASING TRACK SPEED AGAIN AT TAU 72 AND CAUSING A MORE POLEWARD TURN BY TAU 96 AS 29W APPROACHES THE STR AXIS. REGARDING INTENSITY, A CONTINUED PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION OUT TO A PEAK OF 135 KTS IS EXPECTED OUT TO TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY A PLATEAU UNTIL TAU 60 AS 29W IS BEGINNING TO ENTER AN AREA OF HIGHER (100-150 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), AND MAINTAIN LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. BEYOND TAU 60, A STRONGER WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN AS OHC LOWERS AND THE SLOW IN TRACK SPEED WILL ENHANCE THE UPWELLING OF COOLER SSTS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS ADDITIONAL ERCS ARE POSSIBLE, CAUSING FLUCTUATIONS ABOVE OR BELOW THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 72 BEFORE BIFURCATING, WITH AI-BASED MODELS DEPICTING A RECURVATURE SCENARIO TRACKING IN BETWEEN TAIWAN AND OKINAWA, WHILE PHYSICS-BA…

WDPS31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.6S 160.2W INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 158 NM NORTH OF RAROTONGA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (WATI) WITH A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONTINUING TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, REVEALING THE LOW- LEVEL BANDING ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE EDGE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY, THE VORTEX IS ASSESSED TO BE DECOUPLING AS AN 181602Z F-17 SSMIS PASS REVEALED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE 91 GHZ IMAGE DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WHILE THE 37 GHZ IMAGE REFLECTED A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STRONGEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS UNFAVORABLE AS 01P HAS CROSSED THE 26 C ISOTHERM AND EXPERIENCES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CAUSED BY ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE UPPER- LEVEL JET, ALSO CAUSING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE USING A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 181602Z CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 181740Z CIMSS AIDT: 60 KTS AT 181740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 181531Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 181910Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: VORTEX DECOUPLING ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: WATI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND COMPLETING ETT NO LATER THAN TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 01P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS BECOMES INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, FURTHERING THE DECOUPLING OF THE VORTEX AND IT CONTINUES INTO COOLER SSTS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT TRANSITIONS. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AI BASED MODELS DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED THAN PHYSICS-BASED MODELS AS ETT OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL AND AI CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHARP WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH COAMPS-TC BEING THE MOST GRADUAL WHILE DECAY SHIPS WEAKENS THE MOST QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN