ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Edouard continued to strengthen through its landfall as a 50-kt tropical storm in southwestern Cameron Parish, Louisiana, at 1920 UTC. Current radar data shows convective bands with heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading over portions of southeastern Texas on the west side of the storm. Based on the latest surface observations, it appears a little weakening has occurred since landfall, and the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 45 kt. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Edouard is moving toward the northwest (305/7 kt) and will remain on this heading through early Wednesday, bringing the center farther inland over eastern Texas. No notable changes were made to the NHC track forecast. Quick weakening is expected now that the center is inland, and Edouard is likely to become a tropical depression tonight and dissipate by Wednesday night. Even though the system is inland, the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue through the overnight hours. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions associated with Edouard will continue along the Upper Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana coasts within the warning area through this evening. 2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana through Thursday morning as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. Significant flash flooding is possible. River flooding may also be possible. 3. Minor coastal flooding is still possible along the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts through this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 29.9N 94.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/0600Z 30.7N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1800Z 31.6N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026 Karina remains a powerful major hurricane. However, the cyclone appears to have lost a little strength. The eye of the hurricane remains cloud filled and the cloud tops around the eye are not quite as cold as they were earlier this morning. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 90 kt to about 135 kt, and based on that data and the slightly degraded appearance, the initial intensity is nudged lower to 115 kt. The major hurricane is moving westward at about 10 kt. A general slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the north of the hurricane. Over the weekend, a turn to the northwest seems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and as the cyclone approaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except for a slight northward adjustment at days 4 and 5. Even though there is a fair amount of spread in the models toward the end of the forecast period, there is high confidence that the system will pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Karina is forecast to gradually lose strength over the next several days. Although the wind shear is expected to remain low for the next few days, progressively cooler SSTs and decreasing relative humidity values should cause steady weakening. However, the hurricane could become annular, which might cause it to weaken at a slower pace than average. The models are unanimous in showing weakening, but vary on the rate. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies a little above the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.2N 129.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.4N 131.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.9N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 137.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 20.0N 138.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 140.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.6N 143.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.6N 146.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026 The satellite presentation of Marie continues to improve with curved bands over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Recent scatterometer data shows that Marie has a large wind field with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 160 nautical miles over the eastern semicircle. The ASCAT data revealed peak winds of 45 kt and given the typical undersampling of that instrument, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt. That value is near a consensus of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The storm will be moving over sea surface temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius and remain in a low shear environment during the next couple of days. With the large radius of maximum winds, it may take a little time for the system to establish an inner core, but once that occurs steady intensification is likely. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast and lies between the HCCA and GDMI models. There is some potential that Marie could strengthen more quickly over the next day or two than indicated in the forecast below. After day 4, cooler SSTs and a more stable airmass are expected to cause gradual weakening. Marie continues to move northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. A narrow ridge is forecast to establish itself to the north of Marie in a day or two, which should cause the system to turn west-northwestward. After 72 hours, an amplifying mid-level trough along the west coast of the United State could cause Marie to slow down. It is after that time period that there is larger spread in the track guidance. The NHC forecast leans closer to the typically reliable HFIP corrected consensus model and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.5N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.5N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.4N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.2N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 22.9N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 042// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.4N 116.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 129 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CAN BE SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 011400Z METOP-B ASCAT WIND SPEED IMAGE REVEALED POOR SYMMETRY IN THE LLCC AND A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN EIR AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASSESSED CENTER OF THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CORRELATION OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND THE ASCAT WIND SPEEDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED OVER MINDANAO AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 011740Z CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 011740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 011804Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 011710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 17W HAS CONTINUED TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD THEN WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24-36 AS IT ENTERS A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO ASSERT SOME CONTROL AROUND TAU 36 AND STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW SHARPLY THE TRACK WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND WHETHER THE VORTEX WILL BE JUST ONSHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE FORMER SCENARIO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 36, THEN WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SHORT TERM NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AT VARYING DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER ABOUT TAU 24, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO THE GROUPING OF AI GUIDANCE THAT FAVORS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THE SAME REASON, AS ANY TRACK REMAINING OVER WATER GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATER TAUS, HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW// NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 012100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 133.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 408 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD CIRCULATION LACKING PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE EIR ALSO DEPICTS SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND APPARENT ELONGATION ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE VORTEX STRUCTURE HAS BEEN PREVENTED BY A LACK OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMBIGUITY OF THE LLCC STRUCTURE, BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND AN EARLIER 011430Z PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT DEPICTED 35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 011740Z CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 011740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 011622Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 011740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITHIN THE COMPETING AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE NER TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THAT TIME AND ALLOW THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE FORECAST TRACK UNDER THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS 22W APPROACHES THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. AFTER TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND LEAVE THE SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN GENERAL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 48-72, TURNING SLOWLY POLEWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE STR IS ALLOWED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK AROUND 45 KTS THROUGH TAU 72. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE SUITE REGARDING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE FIRST 49 HOURS, BUT THERE REMAINS A SIZEABLE CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CONSENSUS ABOUT THE AFTER TAU 48, WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGING WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. EVENTUALLY, …