🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Central and Southeast Phillips; Central and Southern Valley; Petroleum; Garfield; McCone: Lake Wind Advisory issued September 24 at 11:28AM MDT until September 26 at 9:00AM MDT by NWS Glasgow MT 🚨 West Humboldt Basin - Pershing County; Lahontan Basin - Churchill and Eastern Mineral Counties: Red Flag Warning issued September 24 at 10:28AM PDT until September 25 at 10:00PM PDT by NWS Reno NV 🚨 Northern Sierra Front - Carson City/Douglas/Storey/Southern Washoe/Eastern Lyon/Far Southern Lassen Counties; Southern Sierra Front - Alpine/Northern Mono/Southern Lyon/Western Mineral Counties: Red Flag Warning issued September 24 at 10:28AM PDT until September 25 at 10:00PM PDT by NWS Reno NV 🚨 Northern High Plains; Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera: High Wind Watch issued September 24 at 11:15AM MDT until September 26 at 9:00AM MDT by NWS Great Falls MT 🚨 Southern High Plains: High Wind Watch issued September 24 at 11:15AM MDT until September 26 at 9:00AM MDT by NWS Great Falls MT 🚨 Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Manasquan Inlet NJ from 20 to 40 NM; Waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Little Egg Inlet NJ from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Little Egg Inlet NJ to Great Egg Inlet NJ from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Great Egg Inlet NJ to Cape May NJ from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Cape May NJ to Fenwick Island DE from 20 to 60 NM: Gale Warning issued September 24 at 1:12PM EDT until September 25 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ 🚨 Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE: Small Craft Advisory issued September 24 at 1:12PM EDT until September 25 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ 🚨 Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 NM: Gale Warning issued September 24 at 1:12PM EDT until September 25 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ 🚨 Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE: Gale Watch issued September 24 at 1:12PM EDT until September 26 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026
Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning. Deep convective
curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the
cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is
persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud
pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.
Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind
environment. Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere
is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly. By the weekend,
deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a
weakening trend. Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into
a remnant low.
Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt.
This general motion should continue with a slight reduction
in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the
skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 29.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Odalys has strengthened this morning. The satellite presentation
consists of a -82C Central Dense Overcast (CDO) located over an eye
feature depicted in a 1132 UTC AMSR-3 Microwave color composite
image, and a spiral band wrapping around the surface center from
the northwest. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt and is
based on a compromise of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates.
Although moderate deep-layer shear continues to inhibit significant
strengthening, intensity may fluctuate in the short term. By the
weekend, Odalys should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and
progressively cooler water. As a result, gradual weakening is
expected through the forecast period, and Odalys should become a
post-tropical cyclone early next week. The NHC intensity forecast
blends the IVCN multi-model consensus with the skilled HFIP HCCA
and Google DeepMind aids.
Odalys' initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or
060/6 kt, and is being steered by a mid- to upper-tropospheric
trough situated to its northwest and a subtropical high stretching
southwestward from Mexico. A turn toward the northeast is expected
by Friday, followed by a turn to the north with a reduction in
forward speed over the weekend. By early next week, the track
forecast becomes a bit hazy and Hurricane Polo is expected to be
east of the cyclone and could cause direct interaction complexities
in the track of Odalys. Consequently, there is quite a bit of
uncertainty with considerable increasing model guidance spread.
Further complicating the track forecast is how quickly Odalys
weakens and becomes vertically challenged while being steered by
the low-level flow. The official forecast is adjusted slightly to
the left of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and GDMI
aids.
Odalys' wind radii were adjusted based on a 0749 UTC OSCAT-3
scatterometer overpass.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026
Satellite imagery shows that while Polo remains a powerful
hurricane, there have been some structural changes during the past
few hours. First, an AMSR3 overpass a few hours ago showed a new
outer eyewall was forming, indicating that the hurricane is about
to begin another eyewall replacement cycle. Second, while the eye
and the central convective features remain well defined, there is
now an outer band in the southwestern semicircle with infrared cloud
top temperatures colder than those currently seen in the inner core.
The various satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and
the initial intensity of 135 kt is at the upper edge of the
estimates.
Polo is turning more westward with the initial motion now 295/9 kt.
A mid-level ridge building westward from northern Mexico should
steer the hurricane generally westward for the next 36 h or so.
After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the
northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther
west, with Polo likely to recurve northward and northeastward
around the western end of the ridge. The track guidance has come
into much better agreement on this scenario, although there are
significant differences in how fast the storm will move during the
recurvature. One on side, the GFS, HCCA, Google DeepMind, and
Florida State Super Ensemble are faster, and the official forecast
leans towards them. On the other, the UKMET and the regional
hurricane models are notably slower with their forward speed.
Overall, the new forecast track is near the center of the guidance
envelope and is similar to the previous forecast. The new track
takes the center away from the southwestern coast of Mexico today
and then has it passing over Baja California Sur in 96-120 h.
Fluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so while
Polo undergoes this new eyewall replacement and remains in
favorable environmental conditions. The intensity forecast shows
little change in strength at 12 h and some slight strengthening at
24 h to try to account for the cycle. After 24 h, a slow weakening
is expected through 96 h as Polo encounters somewhat increased
shear. The new forecast shows a sharp drop in intensity by 120 h
as Polo crosses the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast
lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo
for a few more hours.
3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 16.8N 104.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.0N 105.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.1N 107.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.2N 111.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 19.4N 112.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 24.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 27.0N 111.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 132.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 541 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) AND PROXY VISIBLE (PROXYVIS)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF ROBUST
CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL ROTATION. A 240912Z WSF-M COLOR-ENHANCED
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WAS THE FIRST PIECE OF DATA TO REVEAL THE
ONSET OF RAPID VORTEX DECOUPLING, WITH THE LLCC HAVING EMERGED FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 241212Z ASCAT-B
PASS PROVIDED ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE THAT THE VORTEX HAD BY THE 1200Z
HOUR, COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND BECOME EXPOSED, THOUGH STILL UNDER
THIN CIRRUS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO DEPICTED A MUCH WEAKER
WIND FIELD THAN EXPECTED, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS TO THE
NORTH UNDER THE CONVECTION, AND THE BULK OF THE WINDS BEING 30-35
KNOTS. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC AS WELL, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
RESTRICTED TO JUST 15-20 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B PASS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SAME SCATTEROMETER DATA, SET SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF
THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
SIGNIFICANT VORTEX DECOUPLING.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHRY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF HONSHU.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 241140Z
CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 241140Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 241210Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: VORTEX DECOUPLING; DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: 25W HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY
55NM SOUTHEAST FROM ITS EXPECTED 1200Z POSITION BASED ON RECEIPT OF
HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED EASTWARD AFTER TAU 60, INCREASING THE CPA TO
OKINAWA TO 90NM.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W HAS BEEN RELOCATED
BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH DEFINITIVELY
ESTABLISHED THAT THE SYSTEM VORTEX HAS FULLY DECOUPLED. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY HAS SLOWED THE TRACK SPEED BY NEARLY HALF, FROM 16
KNOTS TO 9 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 25W TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AT A STEADY 9-10
KNOTS. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DECELERATE AS IT
APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU
48. HOWEVER, RIDGE AXIS IN THIS CASE IS LOOSELY DEFINED AS THE STR
ITSELF IS EXTENDED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS, WITH A VERY LARGE
COL REGION BETWEEN IT A…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: NE (40°), 17.5 kt | Gust: 21.4 kt
Pressure: 29.98 | Air Temp: 84.4 °F
Water Temp: 86.9 °F | Dew Point: 79.2 °F
Swell: 0.0 ft | Wind Wave: 3.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
