🚨 Hartford, CT: Flash Flood Warning issued August 7 at 8:30PM EDT until August 7 at 11:30PM EDT by NWS Boston/Norton MA 🚨 Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage; Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI; Eagle River to Manitou Island MI; Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI; Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI; Portage Lake to Huron Island MI to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays; Huron Islands to Marquette MI; Marquette to Munising MI; Munising to Grand Marais MI; Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border; Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore; Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 7 at 8:29PM EDT until August 7 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Marquette MI 🚨 Alger, MI; Baraga, MI; Delta, MI; Dickinson, MI; Houghton, MI; Iron, MI; Keweenaw, MI; Marquette, MI; Menominee, MI; Schoolcraft, MI: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 7 at 8:29PM EDT until August 7 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Marquette MI 🚨 Green Bay south of line from Cedar River to Rock Island Passage and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI; Green Bay south of line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 7 at 7:29PM CDT until August 7 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Green Bay WI 🚨 Florence, WI; Forest, WI; Marinette, WI; Oconto, WI: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 7 at 7:29PM CDT until August 7 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Green Bay WI 🚨 Hartley, TX: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 7 at 7:29PM CDT until August 7 at 8:30PM CDT by NWS Amarillo TX 🚨 Lincoln, NM: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 7 at 6:28PM MDT until August 7 at 7:15PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Barbour, WV; Harrison, WV; Lewis, WV; Upshur, WV: Flash Flood Warning issued August 7 at 8:28PM EDT until August 7 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV 🚨 Sevier; Howard; McCurtain: Special Weather Statement issued August 7 at 7:27PM CDT by NWS Shreveport LA 🚨 Montgomery: None
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.6N 126.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 70 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT INNER CORE WITH AN INTERMITTENTLY WELL-DEFINED SMALL
DIAMETER EYE. SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE STILL SEPARATED
BY A MOAT OF DRIER AIR BUT VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE EYE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CYCLIC PHASES OF WARMING
EYE TEMPERATURES SURROUNDED BY COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS, AND VICE
VERSA. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THESE
FEATURES AND EXTENSIVE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CORE CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE COMPACT CENTRAL CORE WITH
ITS PERSISTENT EYE HAS A NOTABLE WOBBLE WITHIN THE BROADER WIND
FIELD RESULTING IN ANOMALOUSLY ERRATIC 6 HOURLY POSITIONS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WHILE THE MEAN STORM MOTION HAS MAINTAINED A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXCELLENT SELF-CONTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT
WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL DIAMETER EYE AND THE
CENTER OF THE EYE IN RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SPREAD OF AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES ON THE HIGHER END AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ON THE LOWER END. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS
FAVORABLE, WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. WEAK DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PENETRATING THE CENTRAL CORE BUT MAY BE
OFF-SETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER HONSHU
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 84 KTS AT 071800Z
CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 071800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 90 KTS AT 071800Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 071730Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 73 KTS AT 071800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: WEAK DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 12W (DOLPHIN) HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD (MEAN STORM MOTION) WITH A NOTABLE
SOUTHWARD DIP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE COMPACT CENTRAL CORE
OSCILLATES WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. THE STEERING RIDGE
CENTERED OVER HONSHU HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT AN EXTENSION OF A
SEPARATE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND CHINA HAS BUILT IN FROM THE WEST AND
AIDED IN MAINTAINING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE TRACK
IS FORECAST TO RECURVE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD. LANDFALL SOUTH OF
SHANGHAI IN EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48, AFTER WHICH
THE TRACK INLAND TAKES ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. TY DOLPHIN
HAS MANAGED TO REINVIGORATE OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS TO AN INTENSITY
OF 90 KTS AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
EASTERN CHINA. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID DECAY OVER TERRAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE RECURVING TRACK SCENARIO BUT HAS AN 85 N…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 32.0N 158.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 959 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE NEAR THE LLCC. THE LLCC AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS SURROUNDING IT HAVE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGER
EXTENSION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW DISPLACED WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN IR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE PERSISTENT STRUCTURE
OBSERVED IN EIR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 26-27 C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND POOR OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 31 KTS AT 071810Z
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 071810Z
CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 071810Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 071554Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 071830Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (CHAN-HOM) HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AT A HEALTHY 16 KT
TRANSLATION SPEED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING
AND RETREAT TO THE EAST AROUND TAU 12 AS A SEPARATE STR BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME WEAK AS A
RESULT AND INDUCE A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SPEED BETWEEN TAU
24-48. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK WESTWARD AND REGAIN CONTROL OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES
TOWARD HONSHU. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY WHILE IT REMAINS IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
REACH A PEAK OF BETWEEN TAU 60-72. AS 14W APPROACHES HONSHU IT
WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A COMPLEX
MIDLATITUDE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THAT FAVORS SUBTROPIC TRANSITION
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETING BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND MODULATIONS INDUCED BY
THE EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 125 NM
AT TAU 72 IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
MIDLATITUDE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 320 NM BY TAU 120 FOR THE SAME
REASONS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
SCENARIO. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AFTER …
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: E (100°), 9.7 kt | Gust: 11.7 kt
Pressure: 30.03 falling | Air Temp: 84.7 °F
Water Temp: 86.0 °F | Dew Point: 79.3 °F
Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 2.0 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
