Catherine's Tropical Cyclone Watch

🚨 Maricopa, AZ: Flash Flood Warning issued October 30 at 10:36PM MST until October 30 at 10:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ 🚨 Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD; Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD; Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD; Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD; Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA; Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD; Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD; Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA; Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor; Chester River to Queenstown MD; Eastern Bay; Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River; Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD; Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:36AM EDT until October 31 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC 🚨 Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm; Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:35AM EDT until November 2 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm; Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm; Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:35AM EDT until November 2 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:35AM EDT until November 2 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:34AM EDT until October 31 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ 🚨 Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:34AM EDT until October 31 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ 🚨 Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:34AM EDT until October 31 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ 🚨 Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE: Small Craft Advisory issued October 31 at 1:34AM EDT until October 31 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 05 UTC 31 Oct 2026

Select a Storm

IN-FA (WP302026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 115 kt Min Pressure: 951 hPa Position: 20.5, 143.4 Basin: West Pacific

HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.

WDPN31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.5N 142.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 55 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 30W (IN-FA) MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE 40 NM DIAMETER EYE CONTAINING SEVERAL MESOVORTICES. A 302211Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS 30W BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SMALL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS. THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS REMAINED CONSTANT AT 19 C WHILE THE SURROUNDING COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE OSCILLATED BETWEEN -65 AND -75 C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALTHOUGH 30W CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER (LESS THAN 75 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT FROM AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 302212Z CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 302330Z CIMSS AIDT: 116 KTS AT 302330Z CIMSS D-MINT: 115 KTS AT 302212Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 114 KTS AT 302330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 30W HAS COMMENCED ITS POLEWARD TURN AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP AND A SLOW IN TRACK SPEED AS THE PASSAGE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING TAU 36, THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A SEPARATE STR CENTERED TO THE WEST WILL BUILD, DRIVING 30W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 60. AFTER THIS POINT A SECOND, WEAKER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD, WEAKENING THE WESTERN STR AND ALLOWING THE ORIGINAL EASTERN STR TO REGAIN STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, CAUSING A NORTHEASTWARD TURN NO LATER THAN TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, 30W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 A STEEPER TREND IS FORECAST AS THE LOWERING OHC AND SLOW IN TRACK SPEED WILL CAUSE 30W TO UPWELL COOLER SSTS. AFTER THIS POINT, WEAKENING SLOWS SLIGHTLY AS TRACK SPEED INCREASES, ALLOWING 30W TO OUTPACE ITS COOL WAKE, BUT BY TAU 96 VWS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE AS IT APPROACHES THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE WHICH LIE FAR EQUATORWARD. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE FIRST LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE AND SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOW FOR THE REBUILDING OF THE ORIGINAL STEERING STR IS THE MAIN SOURCE OF CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT ACROSS MODELS. THE MAJORITY OF AI-BASED MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE UP THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS WITH THE ADDITION OF ECMWF AND E…

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: ENE (70°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 13.6 kt

Pressure: 30.01 | Air Temp: 80.4 °F

Water Temp: 80.2 °F | Dew Point: 77.2 °F

Swell: 3.0 ft | Wind Wave: 3.0 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.

CJ · TC