🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Coconino, AZ; Gila, AZ; Yavapai, AZ: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued October 21 at 10:34AM MST until October 21 at 11:00AM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ 🚨 Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM; Waters from Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME from 25 to 60 NM or the Hague Line; Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 60 NM: Gale Warning issued October 21 at 1:34PM EDT until October 23 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Caribou ME 🚨 Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM: Gale Warning issued October 21 at 1:34PM EDT until October 23 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Caribou ME 🚨 Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 21 at 1:34PM EDT until October 22 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Caribou ME 🚨 Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME: Small Craft Advisory issued October 21 at 1:34PM EDT until October 23 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Caribou ME 🚨 Coastal Duval: Coastal Flood Advisory issued October 21 at 1:31PM EDT until October 22 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Coastal Flagler; Southeast Coastal St. Johns: Rip Current Statement issued October 21 at 1:31PM EDT until October 23 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Inland Flagler; Eastern Clay; Eastern Putnam; South Central Duval; Western St. Johns: Coastal Flood Advisory issued October 21 at 1:31PM EDT until October 22 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Coastal Nassau; Northeast Coastal St. Johns; Coastal Glynn; Coastal Camden: Rip Current Statement issued October 21 at 1:31PM EDT until October 23 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of
southern Mexico (EP94) has continued to become better organized this
morning. Deep convection has increased, and showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated within curved banding
features. A subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB
was T2.0/ 30 kt. Visible satellite shows that the low-level
circulation center is now well-defined, and advisories are therefore
being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow
forward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and
then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern
and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The
NHC track forecast leans towards the GDMI and HCCA solutions and is
on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS and some of
the hurricane regional models continue to move the system more
southwestward over the next 12 hours or so and are on the western
portion of the track suite.
Environmental conditions are highly conducive for rapid
intensification. The cyclone is located over very warm waters in the
eastern Pacific within an environment of low vertical wind shear,
abundant mid-level moisture, and divergence aloft. Rapid
intensification guidance is also well above climatological mean,
particularly in the 12-60 h period. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS
RI probabilities for a 55-kt increase in 48 hours are 73 and 83
percent, respectively. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly
forecast during that time. By 72 hours, vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase, and mid-level dry air could begin to entrain
into the circulation. As a result, a weakening trend is shown later
in the forecast period. The official NHC intensity forecast is near
the upper end of the guidance, although the Google DeepMind does
show a higher peak intensity.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 9.5N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 100.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 9.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 127.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 145 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 432 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 60 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 29W MAINTAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, FEATURING A
30-NM-WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH
EXTENSIVE BANDING FEATURES AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS BUT HAVE
SINCE REVERSED COURSE. IN BD-CURVE-ENHANCED IMAGERY, A RING OF
WHITE AND COLD-MEDIUM-GRAY SHADES HAS ENCIRCLED THE EYE. THIS
FOLLOWS SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES AT 210922Z AND 211003Z, WHICH
REVEALED CONCENTRIC CONVECTIVE RINGS AND INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE RECENT CLOUD-TOP COOLING IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INNER EYEWALL OR THE OUTER RING. THUS FAR, THE EYE HAS SHOWN NO
INDICATION OF DISRUPTION, REMAINING CLEAR, CIRCULAR, AND AS WARM AS
+20 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS TRAVERSING COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF 50-70 KJ PER CM2, WHICH IS LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTAINING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE IN EIR IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 145 KTS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS.
ADT IS DISCOUNTED AS BEING TOO LOW BECAUSE ITS EARLIER PEAK WAS
CONSTRAINED BY THE LARGE-EYE SCENE TYPE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SE OF HONSHU
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
RCTP: T7.0 - 140 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 150 KTS AT 211200Z
CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 211200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 141 KTS AT 211200Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 148 KTS AT 211004Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 138 KTS AT 211200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE CPA TO KYUSHU HAS BEEN DELAYED BY
APPROXIMATELY 4 HOURS.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 29W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR THROUGH TAU 24. DURING
THIS TIME, VWS WILL REMAIN LOW, BUT COOLER SST AND LOW OHC WILL
PROMOTE RAPID WEAKENING. THE CIRCULATION IS ALSO VERY LARGE, WITH
GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. CURRENTLY, THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR CAUSED BY A DEEP
TROUGH PASSING OVER HONSHU. THE STR WILL REBUILD WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
RIDGE LEADS TO A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, FROM LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN TAIWAN TO RECURVATURE TOWARD KYUSHU.
UNDER THE TAIWAN SCENARIO, THE STR WOULD REBUILD QUICKLY AND
PREVENT STY 29W FROM GAINING SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM WOULD
THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60,
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND, EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A
TROPICAL STORM, AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL CHINA NEAR
TAU 96. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, THE RIDGE WOULD BUILD
LATER OR MORE SLOWLY, ALLOWING STY 29W TO TURN POLEWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU. THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING THE SYSTE…
AGUEDA
(SH022027)
Type: TSMax Wind: 45 ktMin Pressure: 1000 hPaPosition: -5.3, 52.2Basin: South Indian
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AGUEDA) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 5.3S 52.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 775 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM. PERSISTENT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO WRAP AROUND THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. A 210235Z WSF-M MWI PASS
REVEALED A WESTWARD VORTEX TILT WITH HEIGHT, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY IS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE, AND THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO TIGHTEN. DESPITE MODERATE
MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), TC 02S IS TRAVERSING WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEST TO MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND MAY SUPPORT
LIMITED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
PGTW AND FMEE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN FLANK OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 210403Z
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 210600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 52 KTS AT 210530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 210523Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 210600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A
STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, TURNING TC 02S WESTWARD.
THE WESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, AS
THE CIRCULATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AS IT MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT LIMITED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ELEVATED VWS AND THE TILTED VORTEX WILL PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY ABOUT TAU 24, PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL FACILITATE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 24, FOLLOWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE TRACK
GUIDANCE, WITH DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICTING THAT TC 02S WILL MOVE
FARTHER POLEWARD PRIOR TO TURNING WESTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND IS POSITIONED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE AI-MODEL MEAN, WHILE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND LIES EQUATORWARD OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OVERALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE HAS TRENDED WEAKER, WITH MOST MODELS
DEPICTING NEAR-STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24, FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING. GIVEN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A TIGHTENING
SYSTEM, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 24 AND CONVERGES TOWARD …
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: NE (40°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 15.5 kt
Pressure: 30.09 | Air Temp: 78.4 °F
Water Temp: 82.2 °F | Dew Point: 66.2 °F
Swell: 3.0 ft | Wind Wave: 2.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
