🚨 Graham, AZ; Greenlee, AZ: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued October 21 at 5:32PM MST until October 21 at 6:00PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ     🚨 Northern Outer Banks: High Surf Advisory issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 Ocracoke Island: Beach Hazards Statement issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 East Carteret: Beach Hazards Statement issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 Hatteras Island: Beach Hazards Statement issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 Hatteras Island: Coastal Flood Warning issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 Northern Outer Banks: Coastal Flood Advisory issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 Northern Outer Banks: Beach Hazards Statement issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 Hatteras Island: High Surf Advisory issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC     🚨 Ocracoke Island: Coastal Flood Advisory issued October 21 at 8:28PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC    

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 00 UTC 22 Oct 2026

Active storms summary

Select a Storm

JOSEPHINE (AL102026)

Type: SS Max Wind: 55 kt Min Pressure: 990 hPa Position: 37.1, -69.6 Basin: North Atlantic
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday. Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial intensity based on the scatterometer data. Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave ridge passes across the northeastern United States. The storm should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking the system away from the US. By Friday, the low should turn eastward, to the south of Newfoundland. Model guidance is in good agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid HCCA. The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic. Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN

VANCE (EP222026)

Type: TS Max Wind: 35 kt Min Pressure: 1003 hPa Position: 9.4, -99.6 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 Satellite imagery shows that the system continues to produce deep convection in improved banding features, as depicted in recent microwave images. An earlier scatterometer pass shortly after the previous advisory showed that the low-level center was slightly farther south and had a peak wind of 27 kt. The latest satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB are 32-35 kt, and using these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory, making the system Tropical Storm Vance. The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow forward motion is expected with a turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. There continues to be some disagreement in the short term over when the turn toward the northwest will occur The GFS and hurricane regional models continue to show a southwest motion, while the HCCA and GDMI show the system slowing and turning sooner. The latest NHC track forecast is closest to the HCCA and GDMI, the best-performing models this season, and was shifted slightly to the right compared to the previous one. Vance is within a conducive environment for steady to rapid intensification (RI), with warm sea surface temperatures near 29-30C, low wind shear, and favorable upper-level divergence. RI SHIPS and DTOPS guidance remains very bullish, showing RI over the next 12-60 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and the peak intensity was increased slightly from the previous one, although it remains slightly below the GDMI and HCCA aids. In 72 hours, wind shear is forecast to increase and the system will move into a slightly drier mid-level air mass. Thus, a weakening trend is shown at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.4N 99.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 9.5N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 9.8N 101.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

Streamline Wind Map

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

TC Drift Path Map

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: NE (50°), 13.6 kt   |   Gust: 17.5 kt

Pressure: 30.03   |   Air Temp: 79.0 °F

Water Temp: 81.5 °F   |   Dew Point: 67.8 °F

Swell: 2.0 ft   |   Wind Wave: 2.0 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

US National Radar Loop

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

Satellite

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

GOES IR Band 13

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.