🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Carolina, PR; Guaynabo, PR; San Juan, PR; Trujillo Alto, PR: Flash Flood Warning issued October 19 at 1:28PM AST until October 19 at 4:15PM AST by NWS San Juan PR 🚨 St.Thomas...St. John.. and Adjacent Islands: Rip Current Statement issued October 19 at 1:10PM AST until October 21 at 8:00AM AST by NWS San Juan PR 🚨 Culebra: Rip Current Statement issued October 19 at 1:10PM AST until October 21 at 8:00AM AST by NWS San Juan PR 🚨 San Juan and Vicinity; Northeast; North Central; Northwest; Mayaguez and Vicinity: High Surf Advisory issued October 19 at 1:10PM AST until October 20 at 6:00PM AST by NWS San Juan PR 🚨 San Juan and Vicinity; Northeast; North Central; Northwest; Mayaguez and Vicinity: Rip Current Statement issued October 19 at 1:10PM AST until October 21 at 8:00AM AST by NWS San Juan PR 🚨 Northern Outer Banks; Ocracoke Island; Hatteras Island: Wind Advisory issued October 19 at 1:01PM EDT until October 20 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC 🚨 Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 19 at 12:19PM EDT until October 22 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM; Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM; Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 19 at 12:19PM EDT until October 22 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 19 at 12:19PM EDT until October 20 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026
800 AM MST Mon Oct 19 2026
Convection has reignited near Trudy this morning, with very cold
cloud tops below -80C evident north and east of the estimated center
on infrared satellite imagery. However, an earlier GPM microwave
pass indicated that westerly wind shear is affecting the tropical
storm, with shear estimated at around 15 kt based on GFS and ECMWF
SHIPS guidance. Recent objective Dvorak intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS range from 42-55 kt. Given the renewed convective activity
and the relatively consistent intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is maintained at 50 kt for this advisory.
Trudy is moving westward around 5 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge centered to its north. A westward to west-southwestward
motion, accompanied by a slower forward speed, is expected through
tonight. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast on Tuesday
as a strong deep-layer trough advances southeastward over the
eastern Pacific toward the West Coast of the United States. The
latest NHC forecast track has been nudged slightly to the left of
the previous forecast, toward the HCCA and Google DeepMind
solutions.
Despite the recent uptick in convection, cooler sea surface
temperatures, increasingly dry mid-level air and an unfavorable
upper-level wind environment are expected to support weakening over
the next couple of days. ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests
that Trudy may struggle to maintain organized convection on Tuesday,
and the latest forecast calls for the system to become post-tropical
within 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous
forecast, lying near the upper end of the intensity guidance through
12 h and near the middle of the guidance thereafter. Trudy is
forecast to dissipate by 72 h.
Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern
Mexico and west-central Mexico today, causing life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions at the beaches.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 19.5N 108.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/0000Z 19.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 20.3N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 20.9N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Adams
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.8N 137.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 140 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 319 NM NORTH OF YAP
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
INNER CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 25NM WIDE EYE, WITH EYE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C. THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND SYMMETRY OF THE
EYEWALL HAVE DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE EIR
DEPICTION, AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BY 1 TO 2C.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMV)
DEPICT CYCLONIC OUTFLOW UP TO 150MB, EXTENDING RADIALLY OUTWARD FROM
THE CENTER TO THE EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), BEFORE
TURNING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE WELL-DEFINED 25NM EYE IN THE EIR, SUPPORTED BY A DIRECT
191203Z ASCAT-B SWATH. THE ASCAT OBSERVATIONS ALSO PROVIDED HIGH-
RESOLUTION WIND DATA TO REFINE THE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD, WHICH IS NOW ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 190808Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A DISTINCT INNER EYEWALL, A
WELL-DEFINED MOAT, AND A COHESIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL APPROXIMATELY
30NM FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER, PROVIDING DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE OF
SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION (SEF) AND THE IMMINENCE OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 140 KNOTS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 AND SUPPORTED BY CIMSS D-PRINT AND SATCON OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. INDEPENDENT OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMMINENT ERC, THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) (EXCEEDING 125 KJ PER CM2), AND STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THE WESTERN
FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, AND A
BUILDING EXTENSION OF A STR CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF TAIWAN.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 146 KTS AT 190900Z
CIMSS ADT: 132 KTS AT 191130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 131 KTS AT 191130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 129 KTS AT 191134Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 139 KTS AT 191130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL
OTHER FACTORS: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC).
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 29W IS BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE
STR TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
STR NEAR TAIWAN, WHICH IS BUILDING EASTWARD SOUTH OF JAPAN. AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
STY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO 13-14 KNOTS FROM TAU 12 TO TAU
36. A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AROUND TAU 36, INDUCING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND RESULTING IN THE BIFURCATION OF THE STR INTO TWO DISTINCT RIDGE
CELLS; ONE SOUTH OF HONSHU AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA,
WITH A PRONOUNCED COL REGION OVER THE…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ENE (70°), 17.5 kt | Gust: 21.4 kt
Pressure: 30.07 steady | Air Temp: 81.5 °F
Water Temp: 83.1 °F | Dew Point: 74.7 °F
Swell: 5.6 ft | Wind Wave: 4.9 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
