🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Cumberland, ME; York, ME: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 22 at 1:33PM EDT until July 22 at 1:45PM EDT by NWS Gray ME 🚨 Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD; Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD; Eastern Bay; Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River: Marine Weather Statement issued July 22 at 1:29PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC 🚨 Claiborne, TN; Grainger, TN; Greene, TN; Hamblen, TN; Hancock, TN; Hawkins, TN; Union, TN: Flood Advisory issued July 22 at 1:29PM EDT until July 22 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Morristown TN 🚨 Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca; East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca: Small Craft Advisory issued July 22 at 10:27AM PDT until July 23 at 5:00AM PDT by NWS Seattle WA 🚨 Briscoe; Hall; Childress; Motley; Cottle; Dickens; King; Kent; Stonewall: Heat Advisory issued July 22 at 12:27PM CDT until July 22 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX 🚨 Briscoe; Hall; Childress; Motley; Cottle; Dickens; King; Kent; Stonewall: Heat Advisory issued July 22 at 12:27PM CDT until July 23 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX 🚨 Garza: Heat Advisory issued July 22 at 12:27PM CDT until July 23 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX 🚨 Lower Yampa River Basin; Central Yampa River Basin; Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus; Elkhead and Park Mountains; Upper Yampa River Basin; Grand Valley; Debeque to Silt Corridor; Central Colorado River Basin; Grand and Battlement Mesas; Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys; Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin; West Elk and Sawatch Mountains; Flat Tops; Upper Gunnison River Valley; Uncompahgre Plateau/Dallas Divide; Northwestern San Juan Mountains; Southwest San Juan Mountains; Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River; Four Corners/Upper Dolores River; Animas River Basin; San Juan River Basin; Southeast Utah; Eastern Uinta Mountains; Eastern Uinta Basin; Tavaputs Plateau; Arches/Grand Flat; La Sal and Abajo Mountains; Canyonlands/Natural Bridges: Flood Watch issued July 22 at 11:26AM MDT until July 23 at 3:00AM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO 🚨 Indian Wells Valley; Mojave Desert: Extreme Heat Warning issued July 22 at 10:25AM PDT until July 27 at 9:00PM PDT by NWS Hanford CA
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Bertha's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this
morning, with all of the associated deep convection having been
pushed well to the southwest of the exposed surface center due to
strong deep-layer shear. That said, dropsonde data from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure has changed very little from the previous
advisory. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak 750-mb flight-level
wind of 55 kt several hours ago, which equates to an initial
intensity of 45 kt. More recent aircraft data suggest those winds
may have decreased, but for now we'll continue to hold 45 kt in
anticipation of additional aircraft and scatterometer data over the
next few hours.
Bertha's center has been deviating a bit north of the forecast
track, and the current motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Track model
guidance insists that Bertha should resume a westward motion today,
but wobbles and deviations like the current one are normal behavior
for such a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Once a westward motion
resumes, Bertha's center is likely to straddle the coast of
Louisiana through Thursday and then reach the upper Texas coast by
Thursday evening or night. The NHC track forecast lies along the
northern edge of the guidance suite, partially to account for the
recent northward jog and partially to closely follow the typically
reliable HCCA and GDMI guidance.
The expected weakening appears to be on the verge of starting, and
the main question for the forecast is how quickly will Bertha lose
intensity. Part of that equation is how much time the center will
spend over land, while the system also continues to contend with
strong northeasterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast maintains
Bertha as a minimal tropical storm through 36 hours (around the
time of a potential Texas landfall), but it's also possible that
the cyclone could weaken to a depression or remnant low by that
time. Like the track forecast, the intensity forecast is largely a
blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance. A remnant low forecast
point is shown over Texas at 48 hours for continuity's sake, but
Bertha could have dissipated by that time.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area,
through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions
of the southwestern coast of Louisiana and upper Texas coast
tonight through late Thursday.
2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.
3. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible through Friday
morning along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest
Florida to southern Texas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 29.8N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 29.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 24/0000Z 29.4N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
Fausto appears to be contending with intrusions of dry air based on
its deteriorated satellite structure this morning. Recent AMSR-2 and
GMI passive microwave images show the mid-level eyewall of the
hurricane is no longer closed, and dry slots are evident in
geostationary satellite images. As a result of these changes, the
satellite intensity estimates have decreased this morning. The
initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is in good agreement with
the latest UW-CIMSS D-PRINT, D-MINT, and SATCON estimates.
Fausto continues moving west-northwestward (285/6 kt) while being
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. This feature is
forecast to strengthen over the next few days, which should keep
Fausto on a west-northwestward to westward heading with some
increase in forward speed later this week and over the weekend. The
track models are in good agreement through 72 h, with increased
cross-track spread noted at days 4-5. The Google Deep Mind and HCCA
remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS
and regional hurricane models are still slower and farther north.
Little change was made to the official NHC track forecast, which
continues to follow HCCA on the southern side of the guidance suite.
Some restrengthening is possible during the next day or two while
Fausto moves over warm waters in a light to moderate shear
environment. However, continued intrusions of dry air may limit the
potential for further intensification, and the NHC forecast only
shows modest strengthening during the next 24-36 h. As Fausto moves
westward, it is predicted to encounter a drier and more stable air
mass over the weekend while tracking near the 26 deg C isotherm.
Thus, slow weakening is shown during the latter half of this
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the
higher side of the intensity guidance. Note that any large northward
track deviations would likely cause Fausto to weaken even faster
than shown in this forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 16.9N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 17.7N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 18.1N 127.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 18.4N 130.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.8N 135.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.0N 146.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SSW (210°), 15.5 kt | Gust: 17.5 kt
Pressure: 29.93 steady | Air Temp: 85.5 °F
Water Temp: 85.5 °F | Dew Point: 79.9 °F
Swell: 0.0 ft | Wind Wave: 4.6 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
