Catherine's Tropical Cyclone Watch

🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm; Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued November 3 at 3:26AM PST until November 3 at 10:00PM PST by NWS Medford OR 🚨 Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm; Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued November 3 at 3:26AM PST until November 3 at 10:00PM PST by NWS Medford OR 🚨 Coastal waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm, including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary: Small Craft Advisory issued November 3 at 6:22AM EST until November 3 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Charleston SC 🚨 Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to 60 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued November 3 at 6:22AM EST until November 4 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston SC 🚨 Rio Arriba, NM: Flood Warning issued November 3 at 4:22AM MST until November 3 at 12:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Union County: Wind Advisory issued November 3 at 4:18AM MST until November 3 at 8:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Waters from Pt. St. George to Cape Mendocino CA from 10 to 60 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued November 3 at 3:10AM PST until November 4 at 3:00AM PST by NWS Eureka CA 🚨 Coastal waters from Pt. St. George to Cape Mendocino CA out 10 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued November 3 at 3:10AM PST until November 3 at 9:00PM PST by NWS Eureka CA 🚨 Waters from Cape Mendocino to Pt. Arena CA from 10 to 60 nm: Small Craft Advisory issued November 3 at 3:10AM PST until November 4 at 3:00AM PST by NWS Eureka CA

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 11 UTC 03 Nov 2026

Select a Storm

MURASU (IO042026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 65 kt Min Pressure: 984 hPa Position: 15.8, 80.2 Basin: North Indian

HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.

IN-FA (WP302026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 70 kt Min Pressure: 982 hPa Position: 23.1, 139.1 Basin: West Pacific

HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.

WDPN31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 044// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.1N 139.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 158 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WITH A STEADILY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SIGNS OF A REDEVELOPING EYE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 030300Z AMSR3 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI ALONG WITH EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AMSR3 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 30W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE WEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 030412Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 030600Z CIMSS AIDT: 61 KTS AT 030600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 62 KTS AT 030412Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 63 KTS AT 030600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 30W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 12. THE STR TO THE WEST, WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR TAIWAN, WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TAU 12, KEEPING THE SPEED OF ADVANCE BELOW 5 KTS. AFTER TAU 12, AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERN RIDGE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THIS WILL CAUSE 30W TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 30W IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 36, WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, PUTTING AN END TO THE REDEVELOPMENT. 30W WILL THEN CROSS THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM AROUND TAU 48, FURTHER AIDING IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE EXCEPTIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BAROCLINIC FORCING IS FORECAST TO ALLOW 30W TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON-INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AT TAU 60 WITH COMPLETION AROUND TAU 72, AS THE VORTEX BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 50 NM AT TAU 48 AND 160 NM AT TAU 72. NAVGEM IS THE SOLE EAST-OF-TRACK AND SLOW OUTLIER IN THIS MODEL RUN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THOUGH, E…

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: ENE (60°), 7.8 kt | Gust: 9.7 kt

Pressure: 29.90 steady | Air Temp: 79.7 °F

Water Temp: 81.5 °F | Dew Point: 75.0 °F

Swell: 3.6 ft | Wind Wave: 1.3 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.

CJ · TC