ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the maximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back in the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low later today. The system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the north of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous forecast. Currently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the shear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong upper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air entrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite imagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent organized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new intensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual weakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 31.1N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Deep convection continues to build around the center of Odalys as the cyclone improves in organization. The most recent objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49-61 kt. Meanwhile, TAFB's most recent Dvorak fix was T3.5/55 kt, which still the same as the previous cycle. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been held at 55 kt for this advisory. There is larger than normal amount of uncertainty in regards to the initial position of Odalys with this forecast due to high clouds obscuring the low-level center and an outage of satellite data this morning. The cyclone is currently moving northward, or 355/4 kt. A further decrease in forward speed is possible as the storm continues to move more northward, then east-northeastward tonight as a trough that is moving across the eastern Pacific toward the western coast of the United States continues to deepen. Afterwards, Odalys will be steered by the flow of the trough resulting an east-northeastward to eastward motion for the next few days. After day three, the uncertainty in the track increases due to potential interaction with Hurricane Polo, which could cause Odalys to slow down late in the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory with only a few minor adjustments, however there is a higher degree of uncertainty with the forecast track due to the low-confidence initial position and analysis. That said, the forecast is still in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for intensification over the next few days, as the vertical wind shear should weaken slightly. In addition the cyclone will be in an environment with plenty of mid-level moisture and warm sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane with in the next day or so. Between 48 to 72 h, the storm could encounter a drier mid-level air mass and increased wind shear from the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. The lastest NHC intensity forecast remains on the upper end of the model guidance, but close to the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.3N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.7N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Zelinsky NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 Polo has a spectacular presentation on geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, with a small well-defined eye surrounded by a symmetrical area of very deep convection. The upper-level outflow is quite prominent over all quadrants of the system and there are strong convective banding features surrounding the central dense overcast. A Subjective Dvorak data T-number from TAFB just after 1200 UTC was 7.0, corresponding to 140 kt, and assuming a little more strengthening since that time, the advisory intensity is set to 145 kt. Despite its great strength, Polo remains a relatively small cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye, respectively. The powerful hurricane appears to have stopped moving eastward, and it is now drifting northward at around 360/2 kt. A deep-layer ridge is becoming established over Mexico. This evolution of the steering pattern should result in Polo turning west-northwestward and beginning to move parallel, but fairly close to, the coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. There is still uncertainty as to how close the hurricane will get to the coast, and some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo makes its closest approach. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of Mexico and the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward. Polo should begin to pull away from southwestern Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the system on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. The steering currents become more uncertain over the weekend when Polo reaches the western edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its west. However Polo is likely to slow down and move more northward around day 5. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope. Polo should remain in an environment that is very conducive for strengthening during next couple of days. It should be noted that for these intense hurricanes, inner-core changes such as eyewall replacements are quite common. These changes can lead to some fluctuations in intensity. However, Polo is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward along the coast. Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 101.6W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 101.9W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 102.8W 150 KT 175 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.7N 104.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.3N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.4N 110.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.8N 112.7W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN