🚨 Hudspeth, TX: Flash Flood Warning issued October 28 at 6:29PM MDT until October 28 at 9:30PM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 🚨 Otero, NM: Flash Flood Warning issued October 28 at 6:26PM MDT until October 28 at 8:15PM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Webster; Hamilton; Greene; Boone: Special Weather Statement issued October 28 at 7:24PM CDT by NWS Des Moines IA 🚨 Ashland, WI; Bayfield, WI: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued October 28 at 7:18PM CDT until October 28 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Duluth MN 🚨 Coastal New Hanover: Rip Current Statement issued October 28 at 8:15PM EDT until October 29 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington NC 🚨 Hudspeth, TX: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued October 28 at 6:14PM MDT until October 28 at 6:45PM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 🚨 Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI; Black River To Ontonagon MI; Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park: Special Marine Warning issued October 28 at 8:13PM EDT until October 28 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Marquette MI 🚨 Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park: Marine Weather Statement issued October 28 at 8:11PM EDT by NWS Marquette MI 🚨 Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI; Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI; Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland; Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM: Special Marine Warning issued October 28 at 7:10PM CDT until October 28 at 7:45PM CDT by NWS Duluth MN
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Vance Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026
200 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026
Vance's convection continues to be displaced northeast of the
center, with visible satellite imagery still showing an exposed
low-level circulation. An ASCAT pass over Vance from around 1640 UTC
showed the highest winds displaced well away from the center as
well, with a peak value of 29 kt, although this pass missed the
deepest convection to the northeast. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB gave Vance a final T-number of 2.0,
while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 27 to 34 kt.
Based on primarily scatterometry data and satellite imagery, the
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and Vance is downgraded to a
tropical depression.
The initial motion was estimated to be 010/8 kt. Vance is being
steered by a longwave trough centered over the east-central
Pacific. Track guidance generally agrees on keeping the storm
motion fixed at north-northeast over the next 48 hours, as the
trough will be slow to shift eastward. The latest NHC track
forecast has changed little from the previous advisory, and
generally follows a blend of the last forecast and the latest HCCA
guidance.
Vance remains in a hostile environment characterized by strong
vertical wind shear, and global models generally depict the system
becoming post-tropical within the next 24 hours. The system may
dissipate shortly thereafter, perhaps before even reaching the coast
of Sinaloa. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
suggest that Vance may undergo one more round of diurnal convection
overnight tonight. However, the latest NHC intensity forecast
generally holds the system's intensity steady, given how hostile the
environment is despite the potential convective re-development.
Regardless of Vance's dissipation time, heavy rain can still be
expected along and ahead of the system's north-northeastward track.
Key Messages:
1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact
portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall
may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern
Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit,
especially in areas along steep terrain.
2. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of
Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 20.1N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 21.2N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.6N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 30/0600Z 24.1N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.6N 156.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 427 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 55 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STILL
LARGE AND CLEAR EYE, THOUGH IT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SURROUNDING RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS
PERIODICALLY BECOME BROKEN IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND THE
DISTRIBUTION OF INNER CORE CONVECTION NOW SKEWS WESTWARD,
INDICATING SOME DISRUPTION BY WHAT MODELS ASSESS TO BE 10-15 KT OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BELOW THE OUTFLOW LAYER. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW ITSELF CONTINUES TO BE RADIAL IN NATURE AND PRESENT IN ALL
QUADRANTS, THOUGH STRONGEST WESTWARD. OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY FAVORABLE AS THE STORM TRACKS THROUGH A REGION OF OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 KJ PER SQUARE CENTIMETER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 120 KT BASED ON A GRADUAL FALLING
TREND IN AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 133 KTS AT 281513Z
CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 281730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 122 KTS AT 281730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 135 KTS AT 281551Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 132 KTS AT 281800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) CONTINUES TO TRACK
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CARRY IN-FA THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BETWEEN TAU 36
AND 48. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTING THE
STORM'S QUASI-ANNULAR STRUCTURE AND CAUSING SLIGHT WEAKENING, BUT
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
NEAR-STEADY INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. SOME SLIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, BOTH UP AND DOWN, MAY OCCUR DUE TO
INTERNAL VORTEX DYNAMICS AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE 30W TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IWO
TO. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BEHIND IT NEAR AND EAST OF TAIWAN,
IMPEDING IN-FA'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS WILL PREVENT 30W FROM RECURVING INITIALLY, BLOCKING THE STORM
AND FORCING IT TO TURN BACK WESTWARD BEYOND TAU 72 TO THE SOUTH OF
IWO TO. MODELS EXHIBIT MODERATE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT
SHAPE AND SPEED OF THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 60. REGARDING THE INTENSITY
FORECAST, THE STORM'S SLOWING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 MAY CAUSE SOME
OCEANIC UPWELLING, THOUGH ITS MAGNITUDE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED TRACK NEAR A TIGHT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT GRADIENT,
DECREASING QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST WEAKENING IS THUS
FORECAST AROUND THAT TIME. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE OTHERWISE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR MAINTAINING A
STRONG TYPHOON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK F…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: NNE (30°), 19.4 kt | Gust: 23.3 kt
Pressure: 30.03 steady | Air Temp: 78.4 °F
Water Temp: 80.8 °F | Dew Point: 71.6 °F
Swell: 3.6 ft | Wind Wave: 3.9 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
