ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Douglas is no longer a tropical cyclone. The system has not produced organized deep convection in the last 12 hours, and its low-level center is completely exposed in proxy-visible satellite images due to increasing westerly shear. Recent ASCAT data showed the system is still producing tropical-storm-force winds in its northern semicircle, and the extent of those winds was slightly larger than previously estimated. Since Douglas is now a post-tropical low, this will be the final NHC advisory. The initial intensity is 35 kt based on the scatterometer winds and more recent satellite estimates. The scatterometer data also indicated the center of Douglas is slightly left of our previous estimates. The system is moving toward the north-northwest (335/7 kt), but a northwestward turn is expected during the next day or two as the low becomes steered by the low-level flow. Based mainly on the initial position adjustment, the NHC forecast track has been moved to the left, which brings it closer to the multi-model consensus. Redevelopment is not expected due to strengthening westerly shear, increasing mid-level dry air, and decreasing sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track. Thus, the low is predicted to gradually weaken this weekend and then open into a trough and dissipate by Sunday. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 22.0N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.9N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.9N 154.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 545 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TY 09W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, INCREASING FROM 85 KTS TO 105 KTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONTINUALLY IMPROVING SYMMETRY, WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL IN THE VISIBLE CHANNEL. THE DVORAK-ENHANCED INFRARED CHANNEL SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE EYE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, UNINHIBITED IN THE CURRENT LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SPREAD OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) EXCEEDING 110 KJ PER CM3, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF KYUSHU EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 030530Z CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 030600Z CIMSS AIDT: 105 KTS AT 030600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 97 KTS AT 030329Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 109 KTS AT 030600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI) HAS CONTINUED ON A NEARLY WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING IN THE STEERING RIDGE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS EASTWARD WELL TO THE NORTH OF TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF ADVANCE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CPA TO SAIPAN AND ROTA REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, EXPECTED AROUND 052200Z. THE ORIENTATION OF THE STR CURRENTLY ANCHORED SOUTH OF KYUSHU AND ITS SLOW WESTWARD MIGRATION OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS WILL RESULT IN A PRIMARILY WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 THE TRACK TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 150 KTS. AFTER TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE TO 20 KTS AT TAU 60 AND 30-35 KNOTS BY TAU 120, STIFLING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE PROBABILITY OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) REMAINS HIGH, AS SUGGESTED BY HAFS-A, WHICH INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE PEAK INTENSITY. IN THE EVENT OF AN ERC, THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND FURTHER LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A TIGHT ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH SUGGESTS A TRACK SOUTH OF ROTA. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE HAS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM AT TAU 72 AND 75 NM AT TAU 120. TRACK SPEED IS SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAIN IN THE LATER TAUS WITH A…

WDPN32 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.6N 109.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 125 NM NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY RECONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS PREVENTED THE CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TS 10W SLOWLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN ISLAND WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE AREA BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRIMARILY BASED ON THE CENTER OF ROTATION IN THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T2.0-T2.5, SUPPLEMENTED BY THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, WITH WARM SSTS, LOW OHC, MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF KYUSHU AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 030600Z CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 030600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 030559Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 030600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MAYSAK) HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN ISLAND OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT WORKS TO RECONSOLIDATE. A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IMMINENTLY AND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND INITIATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER HAINAN. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, 10W WILL REEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN ON ITS WAY TO A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR THE SINO-VIETNAMESE BORDER REGION AROUND TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TRACK TURNS NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER LAND. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AS 10W CLIPS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF HAINAN, THEN BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 40 KTS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE HAS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 36 WHEN THE SECOND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN, REMAINING WITHIN A 10 KT ENVELOPE UNTIL RAPID DISSIPATION OCCURS OVER THE MAINLAND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN