🚨 Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties; Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties; Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties; The Little Rockies; The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge; Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties: Red Flag Warning issued July 31 at 11:34AM MDT until August 2 at 9:00PM MDT by NWS Glasgow MT 🚨 Bosque; McLennan; Falls; Limestone; Robertson: Heat Advisory issued July 31 at 12:33PM CDT until July 31 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX 🚨 Palo Pinto; Hood; Somervell; Freestone; Anderson; Leon: Heat Advisory issued July 31 at 12:33PM CDT until July 31 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX 🚨 Montague; Cooke; Grayson; Fannin; Lamar; Young; Jack; Wise; Denton; Collin; Hunt; Delta; Hopkins; Parker; Tarrant; Dallas; Rockwall; Kaufman; Van Zandt; Rains; Johnson; Ellis; Henderson; Navarro: Heat Advisory issued July 31 at 12:33PM CDT until July 31 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX 🚨 Hill: Heat Advisory issued July 31 at 12:33PM CDT until July 31 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX 🚨 Bradford; Western Clay; Western Putnam: Special Weather Statement issued July 31 at 1:27PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Eastern San Gabriel Mountains: Heat Advisory issued July 31 at 10:24AM PDT until August 2 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 🚨 Interstate 5 Corridor; Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor: Extreme Heat Warning issued July 31 at 10:24AM PDT until August 2 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 🚨 Western Antelope Valley Foothills; Eastern Antelope Valley Foothills; Antelope Valley: Extreme Heat Warning issued July 31 at 10:24AM PDT until August 2 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
500 AM HST Fri Jul 31 2026
Genevieve is mainly comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with some convective banding near the center and in the
northwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates continue to
decrease, with most of them suggesting an intensity near 50 kt.
That will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 290/13 kt.
A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should
steer it generally west-northwestward for the next three days or
so. After that time, a turn toward the northwest is forecast due to
the ridge breaking in response to a mid- to upper-level trough
forming north of 20N between 140-160W. The track guidance remains
in good agreement with this scenario, and the new official forecast
is again almost identical to the previous forecast.
Sea surface temperature analyses indicate that Genevieve is
approaching a small patch of warmer water with temperatures near
25C. This should result in a slight increase in the water
temperature under the core of the cyclone for the next 18 h or so.
Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for a pause in the
weakening from 12-24 h, followed by resumed steady weakening as the
system again encounters cooler water and is affected by increasing
shear. The new intensity forecast now calls for the cyclone to
decay to a remnant low by 60 hr. The global models are in good
agreement that the remnant low will persist for several days after
the convection dissipates, and this is reflected in the forecast.
It should be noted that if the convection does not persist during
Genevieve's passage over the warmer water, the cyclone could
degenerate to a remnant low earlier than currently forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 22.1N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 22.6N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 23.4N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 24.2N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 25.1N 139.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 26.1N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z 27.2N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1200Z 29.9N 145.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1200Z 33.3N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.1N 160.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 368 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 49 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 12W (DOLPHIN) CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE REPEATED EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES (ERC), AND IS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDST OF ITS THIRD
ERC IN AS MANY DAYS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MICROWAVE IMAGES TO SUPPORT A HIGH-CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT OF THE ERC
STATUS, BUT A 311148Z TMS-06 184GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A
SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED INNER EYEWALL, OPEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, WITH A MUCH LARGER OUTER SECONDARY EYEWALL. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY ENLARGING
EYE, NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 20 NM WIDE, WHICH HAS REMAINED CLOUD-FREE
THROUGHOUT THE ERC PROCESS. THE ASSOCIATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT, WARMED, AND BECAME INCREASINGLY
RAGGED UNTIL THE 1200Z FIX, WHERE THE TREND REVERSED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LARGE EYE IN
THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
LATE RECEIPT OF A 310735Z SAR PASS REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130-135
KNOTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CURRENT ERC, SUGGESTING THAT WEAKENING
HAD ALREADY COMMENCED. AGENCY FINAL-T VALUES ARE HOVERING IN THE T6.5
RANGE, WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AIDT HAVE BOTH FALLEN TO NEAR 130
KNOTS, SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, MODERATE TO
HIGH OHC, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ENHANCED BY A WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS
RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
PHFO: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 311200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 125 KTS AT 311200Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 136 KTS AT 311148Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 138 KTS AT 311200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN EXPANSIVE STR COMPLEX FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE EAST COAST
OF HONSHU WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND REACH ITS MAXIMUM
EQUATORWARD EXTENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED JET
MAX EXITING THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE TROUGH
WEAKENING AND RECEDING POLEWARD WHILE BUILDING THE STR SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
STY 12W WILL PULL WARM AIR POLEWARD AND BUILD THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
STR TO THE NORTH OF STY 12W. AS THE DEEP TROUGH RECEDES, IT ALLOWS
RIDGING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE 35TH PARALLEL, ULTIMATELY ESTABLISHING
A RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. STY 12W WILL TURN ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48 AND
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDING INTENSITY, THE REPEATED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES SHOW NO
SIGN OF CEASING; WHILE THE CURRENT CYCLE WI…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: S (180°), 3.9 kt | Gust: 5.8 kt
Pressure: 30.08 steady | Air Temp: 86.5 °F
Water Temp: 87.1 °F | Dew Point: 78.8 °F
Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 0.7 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
