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Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2026
Dry air entrainment has once again impacted Fausto this morning.
While the hurricane briefly closed off an eyewall a few hours ago,
the latest satellite images show that inner core convection has
eroded on the western side of the circulation. The initial intensity
is held at 70 kt, which falls between the latest D-MINT and D-PRINT
estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T4.5/77 kt Dvorak classification from
TAFB.
The hurricane is moving westward (280 degrees) at 11 kt, and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days as
a ridge strengthens to the north of Fausto. There is increased
spread in the track models beginning around day 3, with the Google
Deep Mind notably faster and farther south than the GFS and the
hurricane regional models. The NHC track forecast remains on the
southern side of the guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP
corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.
While the longer-range forecast brings the center of Fausto
generally toward the Hawaiian Islands, it is too early to speculate
on potential impacts to the islands at this point.
Fausto continues to periodically struggle with intrusions of
drier mid-level air within its circulation. Although the deep-layer
shear is fairly low, model soundings suggest that stronger
west-northwesterly mid-level shear during the next couple of days
may cause continued bouts of dry air entrainment. Then, the SHIPS
guidance shows mid-level humidity values falling below 50 percent by
this weekend. So although Fausto will be over marginal SSTs
throughout the period, a gradual weakening trend is predicted while
the system moves into the Central Pacific. This forecast keeps
Fausto a tropical cyclone through day 5, but model simulated
satellite imagery suggests the system could struggle to maintain
organized convection by early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.9N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 18.1N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 18.5N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.8N 132.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.1N 135.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.3N 137.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.4N 140.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.1N 145.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 151.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.0N 126.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 396 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 11W WITH A RADIALLY EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) THAT FULLY OBSCURES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
11W IS CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION, BOTH SURFACE AND
VERTICAL, AND A RECENTLY FORMED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PROMOTES
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON LOWER LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING STEADILY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 60, WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAU 48-60 TO THE NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 11W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UP UNTIL LANDFALL,
FOLLOWED BY DRASTIC WEAKENING CAUSED BY TERRAIN INTERACTION. WHEN
11W ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AT AROUND TAU 12, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, OPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND A PEAK GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. CURRENTLY, 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A STEADY
RATE WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48 AT
75 KTS, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ULTIMATELY, LAND INTERACTION WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE 11W BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 60, SUPPORTING THE NEAR-TERM JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES THEREAFTER, AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON 11W'S TRACK WHILE OVER LAND. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AFTER LANDFALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS
ARE STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS) CONTINUING TO DISPLAY A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK INTENSITY BELOW TYPHOON-STRENGTH. HWRF,
COAMPS-TC (GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS), AND THE EXPERIMENTAL AI GOOGLE
DEEPMIND SUGGEST A MUCH QUICKER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK
NEAR 85 KTS. THE GFS INTENSITY SOLUTION IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO
EXTREMES. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFS SOLUTION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FROM TAU 0-72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LATE-TERM FORECAST STEMS FROM THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WEAKENING
TREND AFTER 11W MAKES LANDFALL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SSE (150°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 13.6 kt
Pressure: 30.03 | Air Temp: 84.6 °F
Water Temp: 85.1 °F | Dew Point: 79.2 °F
Swell: 2.6 ft | Wind Wave: 3.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
