ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026 Karina's cold cloud tops around the center appear more asymmetrical on satellite imagery, with dry air wrapping into the system. The latest subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB gave an intensity estimate of 90 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS ranged from 90-95 kt. With Dvorak analyses continuing to trend downward, along with Karina's degraded appearance on satellite imagery, the initial intensity estimate was decreased to 90 kt. Karina's initial motion was set slightly more westward at 275/9 kt. The system continues to be guided by a subtropical ridge to its north, but is still expected to turn more west-northwestward into the weekend as an upper-level trough moves in and weakens the aforementioned ridge. Another complicating factor for Karina's track is for it to potentially interact with Lowell early next week, which may pull Karina a bit more westward than the last advisory had suggested. Global models seem to hint at this possibility, so the latest official track forecast reflects a slight westward shift, however Karina is not expected to be a threat to the main Hawaiian Islands. The environment surrounding Karina is becoming increasingly drier based on latest SHIPS guidance, which should induce weakening in the short term. Marginal SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear are forecast to cause additional weakening over the weekend. Karina is expected to become a post-tropical system by Monday, before dissipating thereafter. The official NHC intensity forecast further hastens the rate of weakening, generally falling close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.8N 137.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.5N 140.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.0N 142.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.8N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 145.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.7N 148.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Brown NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026 The convection surrounding the center of Hurricane Marie has fluctuated today, with some mid-level dry air now appearing to wrap around its center. An earlier WSFM microwave pass depicted a compact center of circulation, but north-northeasterly wind shear has resulted in less-definition immediately north and east of the core. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity estimates have decreased a little from this morning, and currently range from 66-81 kt. Recent wind observations from the Mexican Navy Weather Station on Clarion Island indicated sustained winds near 55 kt with a peak wind gust of 76 kt. Based on these observations and the available intensity estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt for this advisory package. Marie is moving westward at 280/8 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next 48-72 h as a ridge of high pressure prevails to the northwest of the cyclone. Considerable spread persists within the track guidance beyond 72 h, largely due to differences in how a trough approaching the western United States will influence the strength and position of the aforementioned ridge. A stronger system moving into the western U.S. would erode the ridge more substantially, resulting in a more northward track, while a weaker system would allow the ridge to remain stronger and favor a more west-northwestward track. Little change was made to the track forecast through 72 h. Beyond that time, the forecast was shifted to the right of the previous track forecast and is now closer to the middle of the track guidance. Confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal. Decreasing wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 C and sufficiently moist mid-level air should support some strengthening over the next day or so. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS SHIPS guidance maintain a small potential for rapid intensification during this period, and because of this, the official NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. The rate at which Marie weakens will be highly dependent on its eventual track. A more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in slightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more west-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and likely lead to faster weakening. The official forecast calls for slow weakening during the second half of the weekend, followed by more steady weakening early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.3N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.6N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 22.4N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.8N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 23.6N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 25.0N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 29.0N 128.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 151 NM NORTH OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STILL EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED EAST OF THE LLCC, SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EASTWARD AND TURNING EQUATORWARD IS OBSERVED. A DEEP-LAYER DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ENVELOPE THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RYUKYU ISLANDS HAVE OCCASIONALLY SPIKED INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE IN RECENT HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 22W IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND PERSISTENCE OF THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION RELATIVE TO THE PAST 12 HOURS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 031638Z CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 031740Z CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 031740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 031724Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 031740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD OTHER FACTORS: DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE MOST RECENT FEW HOURS OF MOTION SUGGEST THAT THE ANTICIPATED SLOWING PHASE HAS BEGUN, WHICH WILL CULMINATE IN A NEAR-STALL AND REVERSAL OF THE TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE YELLOW SEA IS FORECAST TO TURN KROVANH SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, PASSING BY THE ISLAND IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE SLOW COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CREATES A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC CAULDRON SOUTH OF JAPAN. BEYOND 48 HOURS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT 22W WILL GRADUALLY CURVE EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA IN 72 HOURS, ULTIMATELY APPROACHING MAINLAND JAPAN AT TAU 120. REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE HOSTILE AS 22W ENCOUNTERS STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE EAST CHINA SEA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE THE STORM'S STRUCTURE IN THE NEAR-TERM. A BELT OF COLD ADVECTION SETTING UP BETWEEN KOREA AND JAPAN IS FORECAST TO SUSTAIN GALES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, EVENTUALLY WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE STORM TURNS SOUTHWARD. AS 22W PASSES OKINAWA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, THE JTWC FORECAST NOW DIPS BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE, AS SIGNIFICANT STIRRING OF THE MID-LATITUDE AIR MASS INTO THE STORM ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO MUTE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, AND DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON BROADENING AND WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION. DURING KROVANH'S REACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE SHOULD A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION PERSIST AND REACQUIRE DEEP CONVECTION. WHIL…