🚨 Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM: Dense Fog Advisory issued November 8 at 6:27AM EST until November 8 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Northern Coastal Humboldt: Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 8 at 3:24AM PST until November 8 at 12:00PM PST by NWS Eureka CA 🚨 Coastal Del Norte; Southwestern Humboldt; Coastal Mendocino: High Surf Advisory issued November 8 at 3:24AM PST until November 8 at 10:00PM PST by NWS Eureka CA 🚨 Northern Coastal Humboldt: High Surf Advisory issued November 8 at 3:24AM PST until November 8 at 10:00PM PST by NWS Eureka CA 🚨 Zapata; Jim Hogg; Brooks; Starr: Flood Watch issued November 8 at 5:24AM CST until November 9 at 9:00AM CST by NWS Brownsville TX 🚨 Benton; Carroll; Washington; Madison; Craig; Ottawa; Mayes; Delaware: Frost Advisory issued November 8 at 5:09AM CST until November 8 at 9:00AM CST by NWS Tulsa OK 🚨 Washington; Nowata; Pawnee; Tulsa; Rogers; Creek; Okfuskee; Okmulgee; Wagoner; Cherokee; Adair; Muskogee; McIntosh; Western Osage; Northeast Osage; Southeast Osage: Frost Advisory issued November 8 at 5:09AM CST until November 8 at 9:00AM CST by NWS Tulsa OK 🚨 Benton; Carroll; Washington; Madison; Craig; Ottawa; Mayes; Delaware: Dense Fog Advisory issued November 8 at 5:09AM CST until November 8 at 9:00AM CST by NWS Tulsa OK 🚨 Duval, TX; Webb, TX: Flash Flood Warning issued November 8 at 5:04AM CST until November 8 at 8:00AM CST by NWS Corpus Christi TX
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 137.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 273 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 31W
(CEMPAKA) WITH AN IMPROVED STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
INDICATED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE FORMATION OF VIGOROUS
BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE LACK OF RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY CAUSES
THERE TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATUS OF THE INNER CORE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED SOLELY ON
THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE UPPER-END OF THE AGENCY DVORAK AND
CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 31W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 080600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 59 KTS AT 080600Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 080600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: 31W IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
WATER RATHER THAN COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR ONLY
ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS BEFORE AN INCOMING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BREAKS
DOWN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND REPOSITIONS IT TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT, 31W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY FROM TAU 12-24
AS IT BECOMES PLACED WITHIN A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AROUND
TAU 24, THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND THE FORMATION OF
A SMALLER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SHARP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TURN. THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY IS THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, 31W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD
AS THE VORTEX SHALLOWS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. REGARDING INTENSITY, 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 95 KTS IN RESPONSE
TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS. AROUND TAU 24,
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING. BY TAU 60, SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 35 KTS AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL BECOME
SIGNIFICANT, INSTILLING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THIS FORECAST
NOW INDICATES THAT 31W WILL FAIL TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION, INSTEAD BECOMING HIGHLY STRETCHED AND DISSIPATING OVER
WATER AROUND TAU 96. THE 30 KNOT INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST REFERS MORE TO THE SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RATHER THAN THE WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 31W
DUE TO THE VORTEX MERGING WITH THE BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS RUN, WITH TRACKERS NOW MOSTLY CONVERGING TO SOMEWHAT OF A
MIDPOINT OF THE TWO EXTREMES PRESENT IN MANY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THE VERY SLOW MODEL GROUPING IS NOW ONLY MADE UP OF NAVGEM
WHILE THE FAST GROUP HAS BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GENERAL…
THREE
(SH032027)
Type: TSMax Wind: 35 ktMin Pressure: 1008 hPaPosition: -12.9, 51.3Basin: South Indian
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.9S 51.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 553 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S WITH A SHALLOW AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT THIS TIME. A 080227Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED NATURE
OF THE LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 03S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY BORDERLINE (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF MADAGASCAR
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 080600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 080600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 080553Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 080600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 24
HOURS
FORECAST DISCUSSION: 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, PASSING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
UNSUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, 03S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN TC-STRENGTH FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER WATER NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NO LATER THAN TAU 24. IF CONVECTION
IS UNABLE TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER, THEN DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR
EVEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 24 IS MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 100 NM BETWEEN THE
NORTHERNMOST GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST NAVGEM. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON 03S MAINTAINING 35 KTS FOR AT MOST 12
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. NOTABLY, THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND GFS DEPICT
IMMEDIATE WEAKENING, WHICH, BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE, IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: NE (50°), 13.6 kt | Gust: 15.5 kt
Pressure: 30.02 steady | Air Temp: 76.6 °F
Water Temp: 79.5 °F | Dew Point: 67.5 °F
Swell: 0.0 ft | Wind Wave: 3.0 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
