ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the eastern Gulf. The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S. builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That motion should take the system along or just offshore of the northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect, 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convection within the inner core of Elida has weakened since the previous advisory. The convective weakening is likely in connection to the cyclone moving over the colder ocean waters. In addition, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB came in at T3.0/55 kt, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate. However, the latest ASCAT pass, while partial, did sample of peak surface winds away from the center of around 45 kt. Thus the intensity for Elida has been held at 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Elida is expected to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating over the next day or two as it becomes increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough off the California coast. There was a slight nudge to the west with this advisory, but the track guidance maintains an overall good consistency from the last several periods. As such only very minor adjustments have been made to the NHC forecast track. The convection in the inner core of Elida looks less impressive than before, and this is an indication that the cyclone is starting to weaken. The system is moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 degrees C, and ocean waters are expected to cool further as the system continues to move northward over the next couple days. In addition, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air should also contribute to a steady weakening trend. Elida is forecast to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low on Tuesday, with the remnant low dissipating by late Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 23.2N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 34.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 37.1N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 200 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026 The system is becoming more consolidated in appearance, with less southwest to northeast elongation than seen earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass over the system showed a believable 32-kt surface wind vector over the northwest quadrant, and TAFB gave a subjective Dvorak T-number of 2.5. This is in agreement with objective AIDT intensity estimates of 35 kt from UW-CIMSS. Based on this information, the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Fausto on this advisory. The storm has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow over its southern semicircle. There is still some uncertainty in the center position, but the best estimate of initial motion is 285/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge lies to the north of Fausto with a weakness in the ridge, associated with departing Tropical Storm Elida, to the northwest. The ridge should gradually build back westward in Elida's wake. However, there will probably be just enough remaining weakness in the ridge to induce a slightly more northwestward motion of Fausto during the next 48-72 hours. The NHC track forecast is a blend of the Google DeepMind and corrected dynamical model consensus guidance. The environment ahead of Fausto looks quite conducive for steady to rapid intensification, with low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to mid-level air mass. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index shows a significantly higher than normal likelihood of RI, and the official intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring in 24 to 48 hours. This rapid strengthening could occur sooner depending on how soon Fausto develops a well-defined inner core. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 12.4N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 14.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.4N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.3N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 16.7N 120.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 121.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 17.6N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 18.5N 131.3W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN