🚨 Montgomery: None     🚨 Crockett, TX; Schleicher, TX; Sutton, TX: Flash Flood Warning issued July 17 at 12:33PM CDT until July 17 at 3:30PM CDT by NWS San Angelo TX     🚨 Jefferson; Henry; Des Moines; Van Buren; Lee; Henderson; Warren; Hancock; McDonough; Scotland; Clark: Heat Advisory issued July 17 at 12:32PM CDT until July 18 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Quad Cities IA IL     🚨 Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM; Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM; Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME: Small Craft Advisory issued July 17 at 1:30PM EDT until July 19 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Caribou ME     🚨 Waters from Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME from 25 to 60 NM or the Hague Line; Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 60 NM: Gale Warning issued July 17 at 1:30PM EDT until July 19 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Caribou ME     🚨 South Central Duval; Northern Inland St. Johns; Western St. Johns: Special Weather Statement issued July 17 at 1:29PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL     🚨 Gilmer: Special Weather Statement issued July 17 at 1:27PM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA     🚨 Orange; Southern Lake County: Special Weather Statement issued July 17 at 1:27PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL     🚨 Anderson, TN; Campbell, TN; Morgan, TN; Scott, TN: Flood Advisory issued July 17 at 1:25PM EDT until July 17 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Morristown TN     🚨 Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon: Red Flag Warning issued July 17 at 10:23AM PDT until July 18 at 10:00PM PDT by NWS Pendleton OR    

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 17 UTC 17 Jul 2026

Active storms summary

Select a Storm

90C (CP902026)

Type: DB Max Wind: 25 kt Min Pressure: 1006 hPa Position: 14.0, -166.3 Basin: East Pacific

ELIDA (EP052026)

Type: TS Max Wind: 55 kt Min Pressure: 994 hPa Position: 16.5, -120.5 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Recent satellite observations have shown that Elida's structure has not improved by a significant margin over the past several hours. Dry air is still entraining into the circulation, and the system remains asymmetric with most of the convection located over the eastern half of the circulation. Based on the available data, the intensity of Elida is held at 55 kt. Tropical-storm-force winds extend well to the east and south of the center. Based on recent fixes, Elida's position has been shifted a bit to the north of the previous track with a initial motion estimated at 300/9 kt. A deep-layer trough remains entrenched off the west coast of the United States, which should cause Elida to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by Sunday. The track guidance continues to shift a bit more to the east, thus the official NHC track forecast has again been nudged in that direction. The models do still have a wide spread of solutions at days 4 and 5. Elida has a very limited time to strengthen over warm waters and in a low-shear environment. However, if the structure cannot improve quickly, then the chances of the cyclone becoming a hurricane will continue to decrease. The peak intensity has been brought down to 65 kt with this advisory. This does keep the intensity forecast in-line with the bulk of the guidance. Weakening should being around 36 hours due to Elida moving over cooler waters and into a region of increasing shear. Elida could lose organized deep convection and become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.8N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.0N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 24.1N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 26.0N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 30.4N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1200Z 33.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi NNNN

97E (EP972026)

Type: DB Max Wind: 20 kt Min Pressure: 1009 hPa Position: 10.7, -105.2 Basin: East Pacific
2-Day Formation: 70% (High) 5-Day Formation: N/A (N/A)

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

Streamline Wind Map

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

TC Drift Path Map

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: ENE (60°), 5.8 kt   |   Gust: 7.8 kt

Pressure: 30.17   |   Air Temp: 85.1 °F

Water Temp: 86.4 °F   |   Dew Point: 78.6 °F

Swell: 1.6 ft   |   Wind Wave: 1.0 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

US National Radar Loop

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

Satellite

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

GOES IR Band 13

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.