ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026 Correction: Updated to emphasize that Vance briefly reached major hurricane intensity earlier this evening before weakening to Category 2 strength. Satellite imagery indicates that Vance became better organized earlier this evening, with cloud-top temperatures cooling and deep convection expanding around a warming eye. However, the eye has become less distinct during the past hour or two, with some warming of the cloud tops in the eyewall, possibly due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T5.5/102 kt, although recent objective intensity estimates have trended downward toward 95 kt. Vance briefly reached major hurricane intensity earlier this evening before the recent deterioration in its satellite presentation. Given the recent degradation in satellite presentation and the latest objective estimates, the initial intensity is set at 95 kt. Vance is moving north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as a broad mid- to upper-level trough evolves over the western portion of the United States, weakening the subtropical ridge over Mexico. Although the track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through 24 to 36 h, forecast confidence decreases thereafter as the trough shifts eastward and Vance enters a region of weaker steering currents. Significant cross-track spread persists among the guidance solutions, partly due to differences in how well Vance maintains its vertical structure as increasing shear affects the cyclone. A weaker, more vertically tilted system could be steered farther westward, while a stronger, vertically coupled hurricane would be more likely to continue northward toward the southwestern or west-central coast of Mexico. Given these persistent differences, the NHC track forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous, lying close to the HCCA and GDMI aids. Vance may have reached its peak intensity earlier this evening after rapidly intensifying from 60 to 100 kt over the preceding 24 h. Although some additional strengthening is possible in the short term, recent satellite trends suggest that the hurricane may be beginning to feel the effects of a less favorable environment. Cooler sea surface temperatures associated with the wakes of recent tropical cyclones have reduced the ocean heat content along portions of Vance's forecast track. These cooler waters, combined with increasing vertical wind shear, should contribute to a weakening trend during the next day or two. However, the magnitude of weakening remains uncertain and will depend partly on how long Vance remains over the cooler waters. The aforementioned differences in the track guidance have also contributed to considerable spread among the intensity solutions, with the possibility of more substantial weakening than currently forecast. Vance could move beyond the cooler waters after 48 h, allowing for some restrengthening. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing mid-level moisture, and possible land interaction should lead to another weakening trend late in the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous prediction and lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope through much of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.0N 102.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 12.8N 102.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 13.8N 103.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 14.8N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 15.8N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 16.3N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 16.8N 104.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 17.6N 104.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 18.4N 104.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 039// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.8N 123.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 100 NM EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TY 29W HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE PRIMARILY TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN. THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED A LOOP TO THE EAST OF TAIWAN AND IS RETURNING TO A POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A GROUPING OF SUBJECTIVE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE POSITION AND RADAR FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, AS WELL AS A 232143Z SENTINEL-1 SAR PASS INDICATING A LARGE BAND OF 60-65 KNOT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 232330Z CIMSS AIDT: 77 KTS AT 232330Z CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 232053Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 232330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO OBSERVED POSITION AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER INITIALLY POLEWARD MOTION, TY 29W WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. TY 29W WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AND BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED BY TAU 60. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO ONGOING ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST, PASSAGE OVER MARGINAL (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO. THE PHYSICS-BASED AND AI MODEL CONSENSUSES ARE SPREAD BY ABOUT 50 NM FROM TAU 24 ONWARD, WITH THE AI CONSENSUS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND BOTH DEPICTING SIMILAR TRACK SPEEDS. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST MAINLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND, ALTHOUGH LYING A BIT TO THE EAST EARLY ON DUE TO RECENT STORM MOTION, IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 24. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND FLATLINE TREND FOLLOWING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE SYSTEM MERGES INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND LIKELY BECOMES INDISTINGUISHABLE AS A SEPARATE CIRCULATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 10.4N 166.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TS 30W HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN A 232132Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW BASED ON SMALL AREA OF NEAR-CENTER 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE ASCAT DATA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 232132Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 232340Z CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 232340Z CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 232254Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 240010Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 30W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE WEST. BY TAU 12, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD THE SOUTHEAST, BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, AND PUSH TS 30W TOWARD A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 48, INDUCING A TEMPORARY SLOWDOWN. AFTER TAU 72, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND PUSH THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. RAPID NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUPPORTIVE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BOOSTED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, BUT THE RATE SHOULD SLOW A BIT AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN DIRECTION AND SPEED, WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES AT THE MIDPOINT OF AN ENVELOPE OF NEARLY ALL SOLUTIONS THAT IS BRACKETED BY THE AI GFS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. SOLUTIONS FAN OUT EVENLY FROM THE START ACROSS THE DISTRIBUTION, PEAKING AT ABOUT 320 NM OF SEPARATION BY TAU 120. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE, WITH COAMPS-TC A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND HAFS A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEAR-TERM. RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE TRIGGERED ON THE LATEST CYCLE, AND THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST AND LIES NEAR THE COAMPS-TC, HAFS, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND INTENSITIES …