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Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 17 UTC 16 Jul 2026

Active storms summary

Select a Storm

90C (CP902026)

Type: DB Max Wind: 25 kt Min Pressure: 1008 hPa Position: 13.6, -166.3 Basin: East Pacific

ELIDA (EP052026)

Type: TS Max Wind: 50 kt Min Pressure: 997 hPa Position: 15.6, -116.9 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026 There has once again been little change in the structure of Elida during the past several hours. Infrared satellite imagery indicates a large area of cold cloud tops near the center, although these tops are in a rectangular block rather than a curved band. A just- received GMI microwave overpass showed that the convection was located primarily southeast of the center and, while there was some curvature it was poorly organized. The various satellite intensity estimates are in the 45-55 kt range, and based on these the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The initial motion is now 280/11 kt. The cyclone is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery west of California. Due to this, Elida is forecast to turn northwestward during the next 24 hours, with this general motion continuing through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario through 72 h, but there is some spread after that. The models that forecast Elida to remain vertically deep, such as the GFS and the HAFS models, show a more northerly track, while other guidance shears the cyclone apart and keeps the low-level portion moving northwestward. Since the expectation is that Elida will be weakening over cold water by that time, the official forecast goes with the more northwesterly track. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 96 h, and is a little north of the previous track at 120 h. Elida has 36-48 h of favorable conditions left before the forecast track has it reaching decreasing sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance shows steady intensification during this time, although the current structure is a caution flag about how much strengthening might occur. The new intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 75 kt in 36-48 h. After that, cooler waters and increasing vertical shear should cause steady weakening, and Elida is now expected to become a remnant low by 120 h. The new intensity forecast is a little below the bulk of the guidance models through 24 h, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance between 36-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.7N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 22.2N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 25.2N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 27.7N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

Streamline Wind Map

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

TC Drift Path Map

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: E (100°), 9.7 kt   |   Gust: 11.7 kt

Pressure: 30.14 steady   |   Air Temp: 86.0 °F

Water Temp: 86.2 °F   |   Dew Point: 80.1 °F

Swell: 1.3 ft   |   Wind Wave: 1.6 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

US National Radar Loop

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

Satellite

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

GOES IR Band 13

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.