🚨 Montgomery: None     🚨 Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 5 at 1:32PM EDT until October 6 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ     🚨 Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE; Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE: Small Craft Advisory issued October 5 at 1:32PM EDT until October 6 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ     🚨 Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 5 at 1:32PM EDT until October 6 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ     🚨 South Walton; Coastal Bay; Coastal Gulf; Coastal Franklin: Rip Current Statement issued October 5 at 1:32PM EDT until October 6 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL     🚨 Northwest; Western Interior; Mayaguez and Vicinity: Special Weather Statement issued October 5 at 1:20PM AST by NWS San Juan PR     🚨 West Side Mountains north of 198; Los Banos - Dos Palos; Merced - Madera - Mendota; Planada - Le Grand - Snelling; Coalinga - Avenal; West Side of Fresno and Kings Counties; Caruthers - San Joaquin - Selma; Fresno-Clovis; West Side Mountains South of 198; Buttonwillow - Lost Hills - I5; Delano-Wasco-Shafter; Hanford - Corcoran - Lemoore; Visalia - Porterville - Reedley; Buena Vista; Bakersfield; Southeast San Joaquin Valley; South End San Joaquin Valley; Mariposa Madera Foothills; Mariposa-Madera Lower Sierra; Fresno-Tulare Foothills; Fresno-Tulare Lower Sierra; South End Sierra Foothills; South End of the Lower Sierra: Heat Advisory issued October 5 at 10:15AM PDT until October 9 at 10:00PM PDT by NWS Hanford CA     🚨 West Side Mountains north of 198; Los Banos - Dos Palos; Merced - Madera - Mendota; Planada - Le Grand - Snelling; Coalinga - Avenal; West Side of Fresno and Kings Counties; Caruthers - San Joaquin - Selma; Fresno-Clovis; West Side Mountains South of 198; Buttonwillow - Lost Hills - I5; Delano-Wasco-Shafter; Hanford - Corcoran - Lemoore; Visalia - Porterville - Reedley; Buena Vista; Bakersfield; Southeast San Joaquin Valley; South End San Joaquin Valley; Mariposa Madera Foothills; Mariposa-Madera Lower Sierra; Fresno-Tulare Foothills; Fresno-Tulare Lower Sierra; South End Sierra Foothills; South End of the Lower Sierra: Heat Advisory issued October 5 at 10:15AM PDT until October 9 at 10:00PM PDT by NWS Hanford CA     🚨 Glynn, GA: Flood Advisory issued October 5 at 1:06PM EDT until October 5 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL     🚨 Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA; Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel: Small Craft Advisory issued October 5 at 12:59PM EDT until October 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA    

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 17 UTC 05 Oct 2026

Active storms summary

Select a Storm

92L (AL922026)

Type: DB Max Wind: 25 kt Min Pressure: 1010 hPa Position: 22.0, -96.5 Basin: North Atlantic
2-Day Formation: 60% (Medium) 5-Day Formation: N/A (N/A)

RACHEL (EP182026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 75 kt Min Pressure: 976 hPa Position: 20.4, -115.8 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 Rachel's satellite appearance continues to depict a ring of deep convection around a large eye. The system is dealing with some northeasterly wind shear, which has brought drier air that has entrained into the system and eroded some of the northern, particularly northwestern, side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, with the TAFB subjective Dvorak classification a T4.5/77 kt, and using this estimate, the initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. The system is moving westward or 275/6 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States and eastern Pacific. This general forward motion should continue for the next several days. Toward the end of the period, a mid- to upper-level trough will move into the eastern Pacific northwest of the cyclone, causing the system to slow and make a sharp northeastward turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and continues to blend the HCCA and GDMI model solutions. Rachel is traversing marginally warm sea surface temperatures of around 26-27C while dealing with some shear and drier air. Given recent structural changes, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity over the next day or so. Beyond 36 to 48 h, sea surface temperatures cool along the forecast track, which, combined with increasing dry air, will induce a more steady weakening trend. Determining when Rachel becomes post-tropical has been tricky, as the aforementioned trough that will turn the system northeastward may induce some baroclinic support to maintain convection. Simulated infrared imagery shows that convection may become less organized by day 5, and the latest NHC forecast now depicts the system becoming post-tropical at that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance envelope near the HCCA and GDMI in the short term, then trends closer to the rest of the consensus aids as the system weakens through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.4N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 21.1N 121.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 21.7N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 22.0N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.4N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.1N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

92E (EP922026)

Type: DB Max Wind: 25 kt Min Pressure: 1009 hPa Position: 12.1, -96.0 Basin: East Pacific
2-Day Formation: 60% (Medium) 5-Day Formation: N/A (N/A)

NOLO (EP152026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 105 kt Min Pressure: 955 hPa Position: 25.6, 176.2 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 060// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.6N 176.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 961 NM NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 15E (NOLO) WITH A LARGE, SYMMETRICAL EYE MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 35NM IN DIAMETER. ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK WHERE DRY AIR IS ENTRAINING INTO THE CORE. THE 050855Z ASCAT DATA REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH A THIN BAND OF STORM- AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE CONTRASTED WITH AN EXPANSIVE RANGE OF ELEVATED WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK FIXES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 050855Z ASCAT DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 15E IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 96, 15E WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN POLEWARD INTO A BREAK BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAPAN. 15E WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 15E IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT GETS PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNFAVORABLE, WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW, INCREASING VWS, AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AROUND TAU 72-96, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SLIGHTLY AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO MARGINALLY IMPROVE, ALLOWING 15E TO BRIEFLY REINTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK OR CROSS-TRACK DEVIATION. AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO INTERPRET THE RECURVE AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT BIFURCATION AFTER ABOUT TAU 60; THE GSM, COAMPS-TC, EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND, AND EXPERIMENTAL AI ECENS MEAN DEPICT A MUCH SHARPER POLEWARD TURN AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. MEANWHILE, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, NAVGEM, AND A HANDFUL OF AI-MODELS GENERALLY SHOW 15E TRACKING FARTHER WEST WITH A GRADUAL POLEWARD RECURVE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72. AFTER TAU 72, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE BULK OF TRACK GUIDANCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON GENERAL INTENSITY TRENDS, BUT NOT EXACT INTENSITY. ALL MODELS DEPICT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC…

CHOI-WAN (WP262026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 110 kt Min Pressure: 935 hPa Position: 27.3, 145.9 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 27.3N 145.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 290 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 44 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN) WITH A STEADILY DEGRADING STRUCTURE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS STARTED TO BECOME IRREGULAR, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DRY SLOT THAT WAS EVIDENT 6 HOURS AGO HAS NOW ENTIRELY ENCIRCLED THE INNER-CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE INCREASINGLY RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 26W IS NOW IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 051200Z CIMSS AIDT: 112 KTS AT 051200Z CIMSS D-MINT: 107 KTS AT 051214Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 113 KTS AT 051200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 12. NEAR TAU 12, 26W WILL APPROACH THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. TRACK SPEEDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE STARTING AROUND TAU 24 AS AN INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH PICKS UP 26W AND USHERS IT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AT TAU 36 AND COMPLETE AT TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH THE JET SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. REGARDING INTENSITY, 26W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING TAU 36, WESTERLY SHEAR WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER WEAKEN. HOWEVER, 26W WILL TAP INTO AN EXTREME POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, SUPPORTED BY A VERY STRONG JET MAX TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOMES A POTENT COLD- CORE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 140 NM AT TAU 48 WHILE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 200 NM (DISCOUNTING NAVGEM). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MODIFIED MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72…

KOGUMA (WP272026)

Type: TS Max Wind: 35 kt Min Pressure: 1000 hPa Position: 11.5, 167.9 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN33 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.5N 167.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 168 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM 27W (KOGUMA) WITH A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS TUCKED UNDERNEATH BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC SLIGHTLY EXPOSED. A 051032Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION, INTENSITY, AND WIND RADII ARE ALL PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIMELY ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 27W REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHERLY SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 051032Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 051210Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 051210Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 051210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12. AROUND TAU 12, 27W WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL THEN BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NEAR TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 27W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 60 TO 70 KTS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE STARTING AROUND TAU 24. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 60, ALLOWING FOR A QUICKER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT TAU 72, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. RIGHT AROUND TAU 120, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, STUNTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT 27W IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COMPACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO CHANGES IN THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. FOR EXAMPLE, IF SHEAR ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, LESS DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. MODEL AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 72 IS A BIT WORSE THIS MODEL RUN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 160 NM AT TAU 72, BUT THEN FANS OUT TO 320 NM AT TAU 120. NAVGEM IS A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD OUTLIER AT TAU 120 AND IS DISREGARDED WHILE THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND EC-AIFS COMPRISES …

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

Streamline Wind Map

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

TC Drift Path Map

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: S (170°), 5.8 kt   |   Gust: 7.8 kt

Pressure: 29.94   |   Air Temp: 85.5 °F

Water Temp: 86.2 °F   |   Dew Point: 80.1 °F

Swell: 1.6 ft   |   Wind Wave: 0.7 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

US National Radar Loop

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

Satellite

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

GOES IR Band 13

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.