🚨 Coastal Waters from Cape Charles Light to Virginia-North Carolina border out 20 NM; Coastal waters from NC VA border to Currituck Beach Light NC out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 25 at 1:31AM EDT until October 26 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA 🚨 Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Eddy County Plains: Special Weather Statement issued October 24 at 11:31PM MDT by NWS Midland/Odessa TX 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 San Juan, NM: Flood Warning issued October 24 at 11:18PM MDT until October 25 at 12:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 San Juan, NM: Flood Warning issued October 24 at 11:06PM MDT until October 25 at 1:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 San Juan, NM: Flood Warning issued October 24 at 11:01PM MDT until October 26 at 3:00AM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Majuro Coastal Waters: Special Weather Statement issued October 25 at 3:01PM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU 🚨 West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet; Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet; East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet: Flood Watch issued October 24 at 10:53PM MDT until October 25 at 6:00AM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 🚨 Otero Mesa; West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands; East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo; Southeast Tularosa Basin; Western El Paso County; Eastern/Central El Paso County; Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains; Salt Basin; Southern Hudspeth Highlands; Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties; Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County: Flood Watch issued October 24 at 10:53PM MDT until October 25 at 6:00AM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 🚨 Hudspeth, TX: Flash Flood Warning issued October 24 at 10:44PM MDT until October 25 at 12:15AM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026
900 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026
Vance continues to look disorganized on satellite images, and it
seems that southwesterly shear is keeping the convection displaced
from the center. The hurricane is also moving over cool waters,
which is also inhibiting intensification as well. GPM microwave
images show that the structure of the cyclone is vertically tilted
due to the aforementioned shear. Despite the system's ragged
appearance, the Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is still
T5.0/90 kt while the objective intensity estimates are in the range
of 68-81 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been kept to 80 kt
based on a combination of that data, however, it could be generous.
The intensity forecast still has plenty of uncertainties. Vance is
generally expected to weaken during the next 12 h due to the
continuous of shear while it remains over cool SSTs. After that
time, the hurricane's intensity could fluctuate when Vance moves
over warmer waters, but the wind shear will likely remain elevated.
After 48 h, the wind shear is expected to increase even further and
that should result in a gradual weakening trend. It is possible
that Vance could weaken more than forecast given the expected
increasing shear and intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one with only a few
minor adjustments made.
The initial motion remains slowly north-northwestward or 340/4 kt.
The cyclone is currently being steered by a weak low- to mid-level
ridge over eastern Mexico, and it is moving toward a large
mid-latitude trough over the western United States and northwestern
Mexico. Vance should move into an area where the steering currents
are light, thus the hurricane is expected to move even slower over
the next few days. The latest guidance shifted significantly to the
west compared to the previous forecast, including the highly skilled
forecast aids HCCA and GDMI, which has added some uncertainty in the
track forecast. The new track forecast was adjusted slightly to the
west and is a little slower than the previous one. However, the
current track is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, and
additional adjustments to the west could be needed.
Key Messages:
1. Due to the uncertainties in both the track and intensity
forecasts, it is too early to say what wind and storm surge
impacts Vance may cause along the coast of Mexico. Interests in
southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of the
hurricane.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance will
impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacán to Jalisco during
much of next week. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides across Colima and western portions of
Michoacán and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 13.7N 103.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.2N 103.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.1N 104.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 15.6N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 16.1N 104.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 17.3N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 18.4N 105.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 19.6N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
043//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 29.0N 124.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 356 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W AS A FULLY EXPOSED, SHALLOW, AND RAGGED
CIRCULATION, OVERWHELMED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY
AIR. THE 242141Z WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE SYSTEM IS SHALLOW
AND ELONGATED, AND INDEED, 29W IS A SHELL OF ITS FORMER SELF.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY
HIGH (30-35 KTS) VWS, COLD (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ELIMINATING ANY CONVECTION, NEGLIGIBLY OFFSET BY
THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
RAGGED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 250040Z
CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 250040Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 57 KTS AT 242243Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 54 KTS AT 240010Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 30-35 KTS
SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 29W (CHAMPI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE FRINGES OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET: EXHIBITING TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, VORTEX ASYMMETRY, AND NO
DEEP CONVECTION. TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN
TAU 24, BUT LIKELY MUCH SOONER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AS 29W TRACKS POLEWARD, WITH SSTS
CONTINUOUSLY DROPPING, VWS INCREASING AS PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET DECREASES, AND CONTINUED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR INUNDATING THE
SYSTEM. THE DEGRADING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 12-36, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 29W WILL
DEGRADE INTO A TROUGH AND THEREFORE DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM AND HAFS-A,
WHICH ARE FARTHER POLEWARD THAN THE BULK OF GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING
THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE
IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36. AS A RESULT,
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.5N 165.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 224 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 30W AS A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER
AXIS, SIGNALLING 30W IS VERTICALLY STACKED AND PRIMED TO INTENSIFY.
THE 242015Z SSMIS REVEALS A SYMMETRICAL, BUT FAINT, MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LARGE, RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE MICROWAVE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION LIES WEST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), MODERATE (75-100 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
(OHC), AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT PREDOMINANTLY
CONTROLLED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 242340Z
CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 242340Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 56 KTS AT 242014Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 53 KTS AT 242340Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 30W (IN-FA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE FRINGES OF A
BUILDING NER CENTERED TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUOUSLY
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE NER BUILDS AND GUIDES THE STORM
THROUGH TAU 24. BY AROUND TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH TO THE EAST, CAUSING A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TAU 36-60. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
STEERING AUTHORITY BY TAU 48, AND CAUSE 30W TO ACCELERATE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDING INTENSITY, 30W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) IMMEDIATELY. 30W IS EXPECTED TO RI THROUGH TAU
24, WHEN THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT TEMPORARILY HALTS
INTENSIFICATION. 30W MAY ALSO BRIEFLY WEAKEN AROUND TAU 36-60. ONCE
30W TRANSITIONS STEERING ENVIRONMENTS AND BEGINS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, IT WILL ENTER A REGION OF ELEVATED (100-125 KJ
PER CM SQUARED) OHC VALUES, SUPPORTING A SECOND ROUND OF
INTENSIFICATION. 30W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT TAU 120, THOUGH
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS (GFS,
GEFS, HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC) THAT DEPICT 30W TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48-60 BEFORE LOOPING BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
DISREGARDING THOSE MEMBERS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WITH THE
BULK OF PHYSICS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALL EXPERIMENTAL AI
MEMBERS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE
ALSO, IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120. SEVERAL JTWC RI AIDS
MEET CRITERIA, HEAVILY SIGNALING THE POSSIBILITY OF RI FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UNCERTAINTY EMERGES REGARDING THE INTEN…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ENE (60°), 15.5 kt | Gust: 25.3 kt
Pressure: 30.16 | Air Temp: 76.8 °F
Water Temp: 80.2 °F | Dew Point: 62.8 °F
Swell: 0.0 ft | Wind Wave: 5.2 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
