ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026 Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery shows that while Douglas continues to produce bursts of convection, the convection is poorly organized and located mainly in a nearly linear band to the north of the center. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range, and given the rather ragged appearance the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is 355/5 kt. A northward motion should continue for the next 12 h or so as the storm moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After that, the guidance generally agrees that Douglas should turn generally northwestward as the weakening cyclone is steered more by the low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. Douglas is now passing over the 26C isotherm and is experiencing 10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear. The shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves over colder water, and dry air is likely to entrain into the circulation. Based on this, the intensity guidance agrees that Douglas should weaken during the forecast period, becoming a depression sometime tonight, a remnant low sometime on Friday, and dissipating by 96 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.4N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.5N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 21.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 22.3N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 23.1N 131.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.3N 158.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 770 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CORE OF TS 09W. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY OBSCURED, THE SLACKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE VORTEX HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED VERTICALLY. ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 020704Z WSFM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE WITH IMPROVED SYMMETRY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER OF ROTATION IN ANIMATED EIR AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY LIMITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE 10-15 KTS OF EASTERLY VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 021030Z CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 021200Z CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 021200Z CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 020840Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 57 KTS AT 021200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI) HAS CONTINUED ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48 AS A STR CENTERED NEAR KYUSHU BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 72 UNDER THIS STEERING INFLUENCE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD TO THE NORTH, TEMPORARILY WEAKENING THE STEERING GRADIENT. AFTER TAU 60, TS 09W RETURNS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, WITH A CPA TO SAIPAN AROUND 052300Z. INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 60. HAFS-A CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) STARTING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 60, CONTINUING THROUGH PASSAGE TROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF AT A PEAK OF 135 KTS FROM TAU 72 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND EC-AIFS AS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, MO…

WDPN32 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.6N 111.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 182 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INCORPORATING WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REORGANIZING AROUND THE BROADER SURROUNDING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. LACKING ANY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA TO FURTHER ILLUMINATE THE NATURE OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD EXPOSED IN THE ANIMATED EIR. WITH THE REORGANIZATION UNDERWAY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINAL WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY 15-20 KTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 021140Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 021140Z CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 021118Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 021140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W HAS SLOWED ITS TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REORGANIZES. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HAINAN IS FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 18, THEN 10W IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER WATER IN THE GULF OF TONKIN JUST BEFORE TAU 30, WITH A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR THE SINO-VIETNAMESE BORDER REGION SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 48. THE DECAYING REMNANTS WILL THEN TRACK INLAND OVER MAINLAND CHINA ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BEFORE TRACKING OVER HAINAN, THEN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN, REACHING A PEAK OF 40 KTS JUST BEFORE THE SECOND LANDFALL. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR THE SINO-VIETNAMESE BORDER REGION, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 95 NM AT TAU 48. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPRISE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND IS THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED CLOSER TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SECOND LANDFALL, THEN RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE PERIOD OF TIME THAT T…