🚨 Central Mountains; Lower Washington County; Zion National Park; Southern Mountains; Upper Sevier River Valleys; Bryce Canyon Country; South Central Utah; Capitol Reef National Park and Vicinity; Western Canyonlands; Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell: Flood Watch issued October 20 at 11:29AM MDT until October 23 at 12:00AM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Castle Country; San Rafael Swell: Flood Watch issued October 20 at 11:29AM MDT until October 23 at 12:00AM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Niagara River to Hamlin Beach NY; Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay NY; Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay NY: Small Craft Advisory issued October 20 at 1:29PM EDT until October 20 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY 🚨 Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 20 at 12:26PM CDT until October 21 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 NM; Coastal Waters extending out to 25 NM South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket; Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 NM South of Block Island; Ocean Waters from Provincetown to Nantucket from 20 to 60 NM; Ocean Waters from Marthas Vineyard to Nantucket from 25 to 60 NM; Ocean Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard from 25 to 60 NM: Gale Warning issued October 20 at 1:23PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Boston/Norton MA 🚨 Boston Harbor; Narragansett Bay: Small Craft Advisory issued October 20 at 1:23PM EDT until October 22 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Boston/Norton MA 🚨 Cape Cod Bay; Nantucket Sound; Vineyard Sound; Buzzards Bay; Rhode Island Sound; Block Island Sound: Gale Warning issued October 20 at 1:23PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Boston/Norton MA 🚨 Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary; Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay: Small Craft Advisory issued October 20 at 1:23PM EDT until October 22 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Boston/Norton MA 🚨 Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM; Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 20 at 1:16PM EDT until October 21 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Caribou ME
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 133.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 155 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 639 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 62 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 29W MAINTAINS A CIRCULAR, WELL-DEFINED EYE
EMBEDDED IN A NEARLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND FLARING CONVECTION ON
THE FAR OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 30-NM-WIDE EYE AS WARM
AS +22 DEGREES CELSIUS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF -80 TO -83 DEGREES CELSIUS. BD-CURVE-ENHANCED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUSTAINED THICK RING OF THE COLD-MEDIUM-GRAY
SHADE AND EVEN SOME COLD-DARK-GRAY SHADES SURROUNDING THE EYE. A
200853Z WSF-M MWI PASS REVEALS A SOLID EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY SPIRAL
RAINBANDS. COINCIDENT SAR PASSES AROUND 200910Z BY RCM-3 AND
SENTINEL-1D DEPICT A NARROW AREA OF LOW EMISSIVITY BETWEEN AN INNER
RING OF EXTREME WINDS AND THE EYEWALL, SUGGESTING THAT THE RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NEAR 15 NM. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONFINED TO
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE STORM CENTER, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF DOUBLE
EYEWALLS, AND MAY INSTEAD BE INDUCED BY MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE
EYE. STY 29W REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF VERY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) OF 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS, VERY HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OF 150 KJ PER CM2, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE WELL-DEFINED EYE IN SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN RAISED TO 155 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
UNANIMOUS T7.5 FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP. ADT IS ASSESSED TO BE TOO
LOW, WITH THE LARGE EYE SCENE TYPE LIKELY CAPPING THE RAW T-NUMBER
AT 6.5.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF HONSHU
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 139 KTS AT 200600Z
CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 201200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 138 KTS AT 201200Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 154 KTS AT 201142Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 150 KTS AT 201200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 29W IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED SOUTH OF HONSHU.
BY TAU 24, A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AND APPROACH HONSHU, ERODING THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
STR AND BUILDING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR, ALLOWING STY 29W TO TURN POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 72 AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KYUSHU. WITH EYE AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LIKELY AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. WHILE LOW VWS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TAU 72, STY 29W WILL TRAVERSE AN AREA OF MUCH LOWER OHC
NEAR 60 KJ PER CM2 AFTER TAU 24, LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND. FROM
TAU 60 TO JUST AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER A PATCH OF
HIGHER OHC NEAR TAIWAN, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY LESSEN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. STEADY WEAKENING WILL RESUME THEREAFTER DUE TO LOWER OHC
AND INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMEN…
AGUEDA
(SH022027)
Type: TSMax Wind: 40 ktMin Pressure: 1003 hPaPosition: -4.7, 53.2Basin: South Indian
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 4.5S 53.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 877 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). CURVED BANDING
EXTENDS WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER. A 200545Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NEAR THE PGTW FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON T2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND FMEE, AS WELL AS SCATTEROMETER DATA.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD, TURNING THE SYSTEM
BACK TOWARD THE WEST. LOW TO MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, WHILE SST
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 48. THESE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KTS AND SHIFT
TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, ENTRAINING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION. THESE MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING, WITH DISSIPATION PREDICTED BY TAU 96.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE SPREAD OUT, WITH AI
MODELS INDICATING A LESS POLEWARD TRACK THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
HAFS-A AND GFS ARE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AI-MODEL MEAN, WHILE
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND GUIDANCE LIES FARTHER NORTH. ECMWF IS MORE
ALIGNED WITH THE AI GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
VERY NEAR THE AI-MODEL MEAN, INDICATING A LESS POLEWARD TRACK THAN
THE BULK OF THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS. SIMILARLY, SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
EXISTS AMONG THE INTENSITY AIDS. HAFS-A AND GFS ARE THE WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS, WHILE DEEPMIND DEPICTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KTS. GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SHEAR, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, INDICATING ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, IF THE SHEAR EASES, THE COMPACT SYSTEM
MAY INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY AND ACHIEVE A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ENE (70°), 19.4 kt | Gust: 23.3 kt
Pressure: 30.07 | Air Temp: 80.8 °F
Water Temp: 82.0 °F | Dew Point: 73.9 °F
Swell: 5.2 ft | Wind Wave: 5.9 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
