ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 Proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the convection around Fay has increasingly become more sheared in the last several hours. Infrared imagery does still show some of the convection has cloud tops near -70 C. In addition, the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was 2.0/30 KT, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 33-43 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated initial motion of 235/11 kt. Fay is expected to keep a general southwestward to west-southwestward motion for the next couple of days as the cyclone is guided by the flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic. The current NHC track forecast is almost identical to the previous one with just a few minor adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. With the convection expected to pulsate for the next couple of days, the intensity will also fluctuate as well. However that convection will likely become increasingly separated from the center as the SHIPS guidance indicates increasing vertical wind shear over the couple of days. Based on the global models, Fay will struggle to maintain deep convection as it moves into a more stable air mass and an area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity forecast is based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance and Fay is still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so. The global models show the system degenerating into a trough afterwards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 24.0N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.1N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 22.7N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 22.6N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected numerical value in second paragraph Satellite imagery shows Hanna's convective structure has not changed much and still displays an exposed low-level center due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The deepest convection remains displaced east of the tropical storm's center. A 0225 UTC OSCAT scatterometer pass revealed an asymmetric wind field. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, slightly below objective estimates ranging between 34 and 43 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion continues east-southeastward at 115/13 kt. Hanna is embedded in the flow between a longwave trough to its northeast and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic pattern should result in a continued east-southeastward motion over the next 24 h or so, with a gradual slowdown in forward speed as the mid-latitude trough leaves Hanna behind. Much of the track guidance then shows a slightly quicker east-northeastward motion after the cyclone becomes vertically shallow and influenced by a low-level ridge centered south of the Azores. The updated NHC track forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, roughly in between the simple (TVCN) and corrected consensus (HCCA) aids. Tropical Storm Hanna is forecast to persist in a moisture-starved environment, with moderate to strong vertical wind shear prevailing over the next 48 to 72 h. However, some near-term fluctuations in intensity are possible during this period as intermittent bursts of deep convection well east of the center may allow for slight intensification. Thereafter, Hanna is expected to be devoid of deep convection around the 60 h mark, degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 35.2N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 34.4N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 33.9N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 34.2N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 34.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 35.8N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 37.0N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Pasch NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected for Key Message number 1. Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out (WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z. There is some uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95 kt range. The center has been over land for about 3 hours now, and it is estimated that the maximum winds have come down to about 70 kt. The hurricane is moving northeastward, or 30 degrees at 9 kt. A significant increase in forward speed is expected this morning as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S. This track should take the system inland over the Mexican state of Sonora late this morning. The track forecast is a little slower compared to the previous forecast for the first 12 hours, mainly due to the slower initial motion. Some slight additional weakening is likely for another couple of hours while the center of Polo remains over land. When the center emerges over the Gulf of California, atmospheric and oceanic conditions could allow for Polo to maintain its intensity. The latest HAFS models show landfall in Sonora around 60 kt, but it is possible that Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches that state. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. Although Polo is likely to dissipate between the hour 12 and 24 points, a 24 hour point is included for continuity. Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is still bringing hurricane-force winds to Baja California Sur, and residents there should remain in a safe shelter through this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread into mainland Mexico early today. A dangerous storm surge is expected in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today. This rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early Wednesday. 3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas. 4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 26.2N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 28.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 31.7N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 300 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 Rachel has been exhibiting a pattern of bursting very deep convection over the past several hours with cloud tops as cold as -90 deg C. However, the deep convective area has a rather shapeless appearance on satellite imagery, and is lacking convective banding features. The storm continues to experience some north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Tail Doppler radar research mission indicate that the system is becoming more vertically aligned. Nonetheless, since the system's satellite signature indicates arrested development, the advisory intensity is held at 50 kt which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Blending center position estimates from the NOAA aircraft along with geostationary and microwave satellite-base center fixes, the motion estimate is 300/10 kt which is about the same as before. Rachel should move along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge with a more northwestward motion being induced by a 500 mb cutoff low over the southwestern United States during the next few days. By late week, the trough is forecast to lift out and the ridge should become reestablished to the north, with Rachel expected to resume a west-northwestward motion by around 72 hours. The official track forecast is slightly south of the one from the previous advisory but on the northern side of the track guidance envelope. Rachel should be moving through a favorable atmospheric thermodynamic environment and over generally warm sea surface temperatures during the next several days. Assuming that the vertical wind shear does not become too prohibitive, strengthening is forecast. There is a possibility that the system's intensification could be slightly inhibited by some cooler waters due to the wake of Hurricane Polo. The official intensity forecast is close to the simple intensity model consensus, but the corrected consensus guidance is somewhat higher, as noted in the previous advisory discussion. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight or on Wednesday. 2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in regions of steep terrain. 3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.7N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 105.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 17.1N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 18.4N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 19.3N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 19.8N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 20.2N 110.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 20.7N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 21.1N 113.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 29.0N 135.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 447 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED WEST OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ANCHORED ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ASYMPTOTES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 290245Z AMSR3 COLOR-ENHANCED 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE VORTEX IS SHALLOW AND STRONGLY DECOUPLED, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CORES RESTRICTED TO THE DOWN-SHEAR EASTERN FLANK. SYNOPTICALLY, THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) INDICATE AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS OVER HONSHU ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, IMPOSING MODERATE-TO-STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DIRECTLY ACROSS TS 25W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KNOTS, BIASED SLIGHTLY ABOVE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES (ADT/SATCON), BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ASSESSMENTS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER WINDS OF 45 KNOTS ACCOUNTING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH VWS (20-25 KTS), RESTRICTED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND MID- LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION, MARGINALLY OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 290426Z CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 290540Z CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 290540Z CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 290427Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 290540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE VORTEX. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STR TO THE EAST, RIDING POLEWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE OF HONSHU, THROUGH TAU 48. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE LATITUDE OF YOKOSUKA, 25W WILL INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE, PHASE WITH AN APPROACHING POLAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) ETT IS PROJECTED TO COMPLETE BY TAU 60, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE RESTRUCTURED AS A COLD-CORE, ASYMMETRIC EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE COUPLED WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT RIGHT-ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF A 140-KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EAST OF HOKKAIDO. REGARDING INTENSITY, 25W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT PERIODIC PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION, FUELED BY THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT, WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 40-45 KNOTS FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 36. AS ETT ENSUES, BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS AND UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE WILL ARREST THE WEAKENING TREND AND INDUCE SECONDARY RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A HYBRID/EXTRATROPICAL GALE BY TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE EXHIBITS EXCE…