🚨 Arthur, NE; Garden, NE; Grant, NE: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 23 at 5:29AM MDT until June 23 at 5:45AM MDT by NWS North Platte NE 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Ellis, OK: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 23 at 6:28AM CDT until June 23 at 7:15AM CDT by NWS Norman OK 🚨 Beaver, OK; Lipscomb, TX: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 23 at 6:26AM CDT until June 23 at 7:30AM CDT by NWS Amarillo TX 🚨 Finney, KS; Haskell, KS: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 23 at 6:24AM CDT until June 23 at 7:15AM CDT by NWS Dodge City KS 🚨 Inland Broward County; Metro Broward County; Inland Miami-Dade County; Metropolitan Miami Dade; Coastal Broward County; Coastal Miami Dade County; Far South Miami-Dade County: Heat Advisory issued June 23 at 7:20AM EDT until June 23 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Miami FL 🚨 Logan, WV; Mingo, WV: Flood Warning issued June 23 at 7:17AM EDT until June 23 at 10:15AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV 🚨 Little River; Miller; Bowie: Special Weather Statement issued June 23 at 6:12AM CDT by NWS Shreveport LA 🚨 Dundy, NE; Hitchcock, NE: Flash Flood Warning issued June 23 at 5:12AM MDT until June 23 at 9:15AM MDT by NWS Goodland KS 🚨 Hooker; Arthur; McPherson: Special Weather Statement issued June 23 at 6:11AM CDT by NWS North Platte NE
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.1N 124.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 474 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CORE. THE CONVECTION IS NOTABLY SHALLOWER IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS APPLYING PRESSURE TO
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK WHILE THE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL HAS PERSISTED
WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW. A 230453Z AMSR-2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND FURTHER DEMONSTRATES THE
ASYMMETRY OF CONVECTIVE BANDING SEEN IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI
AND THE AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS UNFAVORABLE AS THE SLOW SPEED OF
ADVANCE HAS ENHANCED UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER, COMBINED WITH
MODERATE (20-25 KTS) NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 109 KTS AT 230600Z
CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 230600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 98 KTS AT 230600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 102 KTS AT 230500Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 97 KTS AT 230600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 07W (MEKKHALA) HAS SLOWED IN ITS
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
AROUND THE AXIS OF THE STEERING STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
TRACK IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A PRIMARILY NORTHWARD COMPONENT OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS,
THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED AS IT
APPROACHES OKINAWA. THE CPA TO KADENA AB IS EXPECTED AT 260100Z AS
THE CENTER OF TY MEKKHALA TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY
ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND SKIRT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONSHU, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO AFTER TAU 96. THE ALREADY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH COOLER SST AND
INCREASING VWS, WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL INITIATE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND SHOULD ALLOW 07W TO MAINTAIN 50-55 KT
INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RECURVING TRACK OF 07W THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 100 NM. AFTER TAU 72, SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
ACCELERATING TRACK SPEED AND THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 990 NM. JGSM AND
NAVGEM COMPRISE THE SLOWEST OUTLIERS OF THE GROUP, SUCH THAT
EXCEPTING THEM RESULTS IN A MORE MODEST 550 NM ALON…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.8N 144.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 66 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 08W (HIGOS) WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT, PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE
BECOME MORE VIGOROUS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. A PARTIAL 230313Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONFIRMED THAT THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ANIMATED MSI AND
AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 08W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 230600Z
CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 230600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 230600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 230404Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 230600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED STR THROUGH TAU
48. NEAR TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC. 08W WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
STR WITH A NORTHWARD TURN. THE TRACK WILL THEN BECOME NORTHEASTWARD
AS 08W ACCELERATES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST OF HONSHU AS IT
COMMENCES ITS RECURVE, THOUGH THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST
COMPARED TO THE PERVIOUS FORECAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN AT TAU 72 WITH COMPLETION AROUND TAU 96 AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE VORTEX BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED AND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND INTERACTION
WITH THE WIND FIELD OF 07W WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.
NEAR TAU 72, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP AND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE, CAUSING 08W TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 96, SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 60 KTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW 20 C AS 08W TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE CYCLONE. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT THE VORTEX INTERACTS MORE WITH THE WIND FIELD
OF TY 07W (MEKKHALA) THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A MUCH MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING AND A POTENTIAL ABSORPTION
SCENARIO SOUTH OF HONSHU.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS IN THE
GUIDANCE. ONE GROUP CONSISTS OF NAVGEM…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ESE (120°), 7.8 kt | Gust: 7.8 kt
Pressure: 30.12 rising | Air Temp: 83.7 °F
Water Temp: 84.6 °F | Dew Point: 78.8 °F
Swell: 1.6 ft | Wind Wave: 1.0 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
