🚨 Montgomery: None     🚨 South Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 NM: Gale Warning issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00PM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 North Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 NM: Gale Warning issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00PM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00AM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 NM: Gale Warning issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00PM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 NM: Gale Warning issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00PM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00PM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00PM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 12 at 3:49PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00AM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK     🚨 Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued October 12 at 3:48PM AKDT until October 13 at 5:00AM AKDT by NWS Fairbanks AK    

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 00 UTC 13 Oct 2026

Active storms summary

Select a Storm

SIMON (EP202026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 85 kt Min Pressure: 969 hPa Position: 20.3, -106.9 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 This afternoon, Simon is a small hurricane that is dealing with some easterly vertical wind shear. The inner-core continues to produce a lot of lightning but mostly in the eastern semicircle. The most recent microwave image was a 1718 UTC AWS pass that also showed this core asymmetry with the eyewall open on the northwest side on the 180 GHz channel. While the latest 18 UTC subjective Dvorak estimate remains at CI 5.5/102-kt, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to gradually decrease. Thus, the initial intensity is being reduced to a somewhat uncertain 85 kt this advisory, which also matches the D-MINT mean estimate from the AWS microwave pass above. A helpful 1712 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass was useful to help adjust Simon's radii and also to indicate its wind field has become quite small, with 34-kt winds only extending out about 40 n mi. Simon's track has thrown us a few curve balls over the past 24-36 h, and this afternoon is no exception as the hurricane made a brief westward jog, with the longer-term motion estimated at 290/3 kt. The track forecast remains problematic. Part of the slow motion Simon is exhibiting today is related to competing steering synoptic features, primarily a mid-level ridge centered near the Texas Coast versus another mid-level ridge located southwest of the hurricane. The influence of the northeastern ridge has been a little stronger, but steering diagnostics suggest that Simon may be soon reaching a bifurcation or COL point in the flow. This feature indicates the area where the net steering flow collapses and helps explain why both the deterministic and ensemble track guidance spread increases quite dramatically in 24 to 48 h. For example, the HAFS-A/B models, which earlier this morning were showing a faster northeastward turn back into Mexico, now show Simon stalling and executing a slow cyclonic loop in the waters between mainland Mexico and the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The European ensemble spread suggests that these individual solutions are likely just different flavors of the overall distribution, which is spread out in a southwest to northeast fashion. While the overall track guidance continues to have large spread, there has been a northward and faster shift this cycle. This shift is a bit odd given the current storm motion, so the NHC track forecast is initially on the left side of the guidance over the first 12-24 h, but falls back closer to the middle of the guidance envelope, and attempts to blend the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), Google Deepmind ensemble mean (GDMI), and their latest Weather Next model (WN3I). Ultimately the latest track forecast converges close to the prior one near landfall in Mexico in 72-96 h, but this remains a low confidence track forecast. The intensity forecast for Simon is also challenging. The current mid-level easterly shear affecting Simon's inner core structure has not been well anticipated by the model guidance. Small tropical cyclones like Simon are often more sensitive to negative environmental factors, and even 15-20 kt of easterly shear could be enough to disrupt the core structure, especially with nearby environmental dry air. The factors may result in additional weakening in the short-term. However, EC-SHIPS guidance shows the shear lowering below 5 kt in 24-48 h. Assuming Simon is able to maintain an inner core structure and take advantage of the more favorable conditions, restrengthening is still forecast, especially as the hurricane is expected to track over the warmest sea-surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific basin (31-32 C). The intensity guidance shows more short-term weakening compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is lower early on, but still shows rest…

93E (EP932026)

Type: DB Max Wind: 25 kt Min Pressure: 1008 hPa Position: 8.1, -93.9 Basin: East Pacific
2-Day Formation: 100% (High) 5-Day Formation: N/A (N/A)

KOGUMA (WP272026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 75 kt Min Pressure: 974 hPa Position: 32.2, 149.6 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN33 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 32.2N 149.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 492 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 27W (KOGUMA) WITH AN ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND NEARLY ALL CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS TILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY THE DISPLACED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), BUT IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE WITHIN THE RAGGED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AS TY 27W EXPERIENCES HIGH (25-30 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CAUSING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND FURTHER VORTEX TILT, AS WELL AS BEING WITHIN 25-26 C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC IN EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SPREAD OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 78 KTS AT 121606Z CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 121730Z CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 121730Z CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 121606Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 63 KTS AT 121730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 36, AS 27W NEARS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING ETT NO LATER THAN TAU 60. REGARDING INTENSITY, KOGUMA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, DESPITE THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, AS THE REMAINDER OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH VWS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 KTS BY TAU 36, INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND VORTEX TILT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF ETT. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 120 NM AND AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 150 NM AT TAU 60, ALTHOUGH REMOVING THE SLOWEST AND FASTEST OUTLIERS OF GALWEM AND NAVGEM WOULD DECREASE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD TO ONLY 40 NM. THUS, THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE ONLY OUTLIERS BEING COAMPS-TC (BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM BASED) DEPICTING A MUCH STEEPER WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE. OVERALL, THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE OUT TO TAU 36 AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE IT THEREAFTER IN LINE WITH HAFS-A AND GOOGLE DEEPMI…

TWENTY-EI (WP282026)

Type: TD Max Wind: 30 kt Min Pressure: 1006 hPa Position: 17.5, 148.2 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 148.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 195 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W WITH A SHEARED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING FROM -75 C TO -60 C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BEING OFFSET BY 10-15 KTS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR DUE TO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) SITUATED JUST TO THE EAST OF 28W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSCURED LLCC IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND AGREEMENT ACROSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, WITH THE HIGHER END OF CIMSS ESTIMATES HAVING BEEN COMPUTED BEFORE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION COLLAPSED. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 121610Z CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 121740Z CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 121740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 121610Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 121710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, 28W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 48 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO ALLOW FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OR INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE, BY TAU 48 28W WILL ENCOUNTER A SHEAR LINE AND FURTHER DRY AIR, CAUSING 28W TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH GFS AND GEFS BEING THE QUICKEST AND MOST POLEWARD SOLUTIONS, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM AND AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 75 NM BY TAU 48. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS THUS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY NOW DEPICTING A PLATEAU IN INTENSITY OUT TO TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING THEREAFTER, WITH THE OUTLIERS OF DECAY-SHIPS (BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM BASED), WHICH DEPICT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE DISREGARDED SHIPS GUIDANCE, HEDGING TOWARDS THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND, GFS, AND HAFS-A SOLUTIONS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

Streamline Wind Map

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

TC Drift Path Map

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: E (80°), 13.6 kt   |   Gust: 15.5 kt

Pressure: 30.00   |   Air Temp: 82.8 °F

Water Temp: 84.9 °F   |   Dew Point: 77.0 °F

Swell: 1.0 ft   |   Wind Wave: 2.0 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

US National Radar Loop

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

Satellite

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

GOES IR Band 13

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.