🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales; Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson; Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox: Extreme Heat Warning issued July 24 at 10:33AM MST until July 25 at 8:00PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ 🚨 Western Pima County Including Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument; Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells; Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail; South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park; Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle; Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford: Extreme Heat Warning issued July 24 at 10:33AM MST until July 25 at 8:00PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ 🚨 Northern Campbell; Southern Campbell; Western Crook; Weston County Plains; Newcastle: Heat Advisory issued July 24 at 11:31AM MDT until July 26 at 8:00PM MDT by NWS Rapid City SD 🚨 Harding; Northern Perkins; Butte; Northern Meade Co Plains; Ziebach; Northern Foothills; Rapid City; Southern Foothills; Custer Co Plains; Pennington Co Plains; Haakon; Western Fall River; Northern Oglala Lakota; Northern Jackson; Bennett; Mellette; Todd; Tripp; Sturgis/Piedmont Foothills; Southern Meade Co Plains; Hermosa Foothills; Eastern Fall River; Southern Oglala Lakota; Southern Jackson; Southern Perkins; Northeastern Crook: Heat Advisory issued July 24 at 11:31AM MDT until July 26 at 8:00PM MDT by NWS Rapid City SD 🚨 Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued July 24 at 1:27PM EDT by NWS Wilmington NC 🚨 Cody Foothills; North Bighorn Basin; Southwest Bighorn Basin; Southeast Bighorn Basin; Northeast Johnson County; Southeast Johnson County; Wind River Basin; Lander Foothills; Natrona County Lower Elevations: Heat Advisory issued July 24 at 11:26AM MDT until July 26 at 9:00PM MDT by NWS Riverton WY 🚨 Chaves County Plains: Heat Advisory issued July 24 at 11:18AM MDT until July 24 at 8:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 S of Cape Lookout NC to Surf City NC out to 20 NM; Waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City NC from 20 to 60 NM: Special Marine Warning issued July 24 at 1:18PM EDT until July 24 at 1:45PM EDT by NWS Newport/Morehead City NC 🚨 Jefferson; Perry; Franklin; Jackson; Williamson; Union; Johnson; Pope; Alexander; Pulaski; Massac; Fulton; Hickman; Carlisle; Ballard; McCracken; Graves; Livingston; Marshall; Calloway; Perry; Bollinger; Cape Girardeau; Wayne; Carter; Ripley; Butler; Stoddard; Scott; Mississippi; New Madrid: Heat Advisory issued July 24 at 12:18PM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
500 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2026
Fausto has become a well organized hurricane. The cloud pattern is
fairly symmetric, and there is a closed ring of deep convection
surrounding a roughly 15 n mi diameter eye. Beyond the inner core,
the hurricane is maintaining some curved bands, especially east of
the center, and well established outflow. The latest satellite
intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt, and based on a blend of
that data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 90 kt. Fausto's
wind field is a little smaller than average when compared to other
hurricanes in similar locations of the Pacific Ocean.
The hurricane is moving westward at about 14 kt. The track forecast
appears fairly straightforward. A narrow mid-level ridge is
expected to remain in place to the north of Fausto during the next
several days, and that should cause the hurricane to move westward
to west-northwestward at about the same pace. The NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and lies on the
fast side of the model guidance, in best agreement with HCCA and
GDMI. This track takes Fausto near the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portions of next week.
The models are in good agreement that Fausto is likely near its peak
intensity. However, it is worth noting that the guidance has
struggled to capture the trends in Fausto's intensity over the past
few days. Nonetheless, decreasing water temperatures and drier air
should cause the cyclone to gradually lose strength, and an increase
in westerly vertical wind shear early next week will likely aid in
that weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and shows steady weakening through
the period. There is relatively high confidence that Fausto will be
a tropical storm when it is in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands.
Key Messages:
1. Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands during the early to middle portions of next week,
there is an increasing risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall.
However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude
of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the
progress of this storm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 18.6N 131.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.0N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 137.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.8N 140.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 20.1N 142.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.3N 145.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.0N 151.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.6N 157.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
900 AM CST Fri Jul 24 2026
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized with the area
of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring well offshore of
southern Mexico. In addition, 0807 UTC AMSR-2 passive microwave
images indicate the system has a closed low-level circulation with
good definition. The current satellite presentation suggests it
could be dealing with some northeasterly shear, with deep convection
mostly west and southwest of the estimated center position. Since
this system meets tropical cyclone criteria, we are initiating
advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity
of 30 kt based on a T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Some
scatterometer data expected later today should help refine the
center position and intensity estimates.
The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but
this is somewhat uncertain since the depression just formed. The
system should maintain a west-northwestward or northwestward heading
during the next several days with a ridge entrenched to its north
and northeast. Overall, the track model guidance is tightly
clustered with limited cross-track spread. There are more
differences in the along-track direction, with the Google Deep Mind
ensemble mean significantly faster than the rest of the models. The
first NHC track forecast uses a consensus approach and generally
falls between the simple (IVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids.
Generally weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, very warm SSTs around
30C, and a strongly divergent upper-level environment are likely to
support steady to rapid intensification (RI) during the next few
days. The bulk of the intensity guidance is very aggressive with
strengthening, particularly in the 24-72 h window when the shear
falls below 10 kt. The DTOPS shows a 76 percent chance of a 65-kt
increase in 72 h, and more than 60 percent of the Google Deep Mind
ensemble members show the system becoming a major hurricane. The
NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI between 36-72 h and has
it reaching major hurricane status early next week, in agreement
with the simple consensus (IVCN) and slightly below the HCCA aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 9.0N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 9.3N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 10.5N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 12.9N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 14.0N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 15.3N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 17.2N 115.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NOUL) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 120.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 381 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 11W (NOUL) AS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. THE 240850Z
37 COLOR COMPOSITE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED, BUT
RAGGED, MICROWAVE EYE. THE SURFACE OBSERVATION REPORTED BY THE
STATION AT CALAYAN, PHILIPPINES FROM 241000Z INDICATED SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 31 KTS, GUSTING TO 66 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLUSTERING
OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
VISIBLE IN THE WEATHER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING TREND IN AMINATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE IT REMAINS STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU
24-26, AT WHICH POINT, STORM MOTION MAY BECOME MORE ERRATIC THAN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST, AS LAND INTERACTION CAN UNPREDICTABLY
IMPACT TRACK SPEED AND TRAJECTORY. REGARDING INTENSITY, NOUL IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
AWAY FROM LAND AND INTO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. 11W MAY UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN 24-36 HOURS,
INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY TIME. NOUL IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 24 AT 85 KTS, JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. 11W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
POST-LANDFALL, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 60.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD IN INTENSITY OCCURRING
AT THE PEAK INTENSITY; GFS IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE PEAK
INTENSITY AT 65 KTS, AND EXPERIMENTAL AI GOOGLE DEEPMIND IS ON THE
HIGHER END AT 95 KTS. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS LIE CLUSTERED BETWEEN
70-80 KTS. SEVERAL RI AIDS HAVE MET CRITERIA, SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE THE MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WITH UNCERTAINTY
STEMMING FROM THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST RI AND THE WEAKENING
TREND AFTER 11W MAKES LANDFALL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INT…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: E (80°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 13.6 kt
Pressure: 30.09 | Air Temp: 85.1 °F
Water Temp: 85.1 °F | Dew Point: 79.0 °F
Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 2.0 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
