🚨 Cochise, AZ: Flood Advisory issued July 20 at 10:28PM MST until July 21 at 12:15AM MST by NWS Tucson AZ     🚨 Tampa Bay waters; Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM; Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued July 21 at 1:27AM EDT by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL     🚨 Montgomery: None     🚨 Wexford: Special Weather Statement issued July 21 at 1:23AM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI     🚨 Vance; Warren: Special Weather Statement issued July 21 at 1:22AM EDT by NWS Raleigh NC     🚨 Mercer; Putnam; Schuyler; Sullivan: Special Weather Statement issued July 21 at 12:16AM CDT by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO     🚨 Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM; Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM: Special Marine Warning issued July 21 at 12:16AM CDT until July 21 at 1:45AM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA     🚨 Santa Cruz, AZ: Flash Flood Warning issued July 20 at 10:12PM MST until July 21 at 1:15AM MST by NWS Tucson AZ     🚨 Rappahannock River from Urbanna to Windmill Point; York River; James River from Jamestown to the James River Bridge: Small Craft Advisory issued July 21 at 1:10AM EDT until July 22 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA     🚨 Coastal waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chincoteague VA out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued July 21 at 1:10AM EDT until July 22 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA    

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 05 UTC 21 Jul 2026

Active storms summary

Select a Storm

BERTHA (AL022026)

Type: TS Max Wind: 35 kt Min Pressure: 1003 hPa Position: 28.5, -86.0 Basin: North Atlantic
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern semicircle. There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to become the dominant steering influence which should induce a west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction, on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will increase during the next couple of days. This should limit intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from Alabama westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday night and Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the Florida Panhandle, Metro New Orleans, and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area on Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north of Fort Myers to southern Louisiana with isolated instances of flash flooding possible westward into portions of Texas coast later in the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN

FAUSTO (EP062026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 65 kt Min Pressure: 988 hPa Position: 14.4, -117.0 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Although some residual northerly shear remains evident, satellite imagery shows that the low- and mid-level circulations have become much better aligned than they were yesterday. Recent microwave and scatterometer data also support the improved structure, and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB indicate that Fausto has reached hurricane intensity. Based on these data and the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt, making Fausto the first hurricane of the 2026 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion is estimated to be 315/8 kt. A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, high pressure is forecast to build north of Fausto, causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and gradually accelerate. Track guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter, a gradual increase in cross-track spread develops, with the GFS and the multi-model consensus (HCCA) on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and GDMI on the left, or south, side. The updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous advisory and reflects a blend of the HCCA and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Fausto is expected to move into an environment of lower vertical wind shear while remaining over warm waters and within a moist air mass during the next couple of days. These conditions should support steady to rapid strengthening, although some lingering northwesterly shear could initially temper the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Fausto to approach major hurricane intensity in about 48 h and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope through this time. A gradual weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.7N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.2N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 16.7N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 17.1N 123.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 18.8N 133.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 19.7N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC) NNNN

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

Streamline Wind Map

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

TC Drift Path Map

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: W (260°), 13.6 kt   |   Gust: 15.5 kt

Pressure: 29.89 falling   |   Air Temp: 85.5 °F

Water Temp: 85.8 °F   |   Dew Point: 79.2 °F

Swell: 1.6 ft   |   Wind Wave: 2.6 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

US National Radar Loop

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

Satellite

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

GOES IR Band 13

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.