🚨 Montgomery: None     🚨 Franklin, NC; Granville, NC; Vance, NC: Tornado Warning issued October 11 at 1:33PM EDT until October 11 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Raleigh NC     🚨 Indian Wells Valley; Mojave Desert Slopes; Mojave Desert: Wind Advisory issued October 11 at 10:32AM PDT until October 12 at 8:00AM PDT by NWS Hanford CA     🚨 Coalinga - Avenal; West Side Mountains South of 198; Buena Vista: Wind Advisory issued October 11 at 10:32AM PDT until October 11 at 11:00PM PDT by NWS Hanford CA     🚨 West Side Mountains north of 198: Lake Wind Advisory issued October 11 at 10:32AM PDT until October 11 at 11:00PM PDT by NWS Hanford CA     🚨 Icy Cape to Cape Suckling out to 15 NM: Gale Warning issued October 11 at 9:31AM AKDT until October 11 at 10:00AM AKDT by NWS Juneau AK     🚨 Yakutat Bay: Small Craft Advisory issued October 11 at 9:31AM AKDT until October 11 at 6:00PM AKDT by NWS Juneau AK     🚨 Stephens Passage; Frederick Sound: Small Craft Advisory issued October 11 at 9:31AM AKDT until October 12 at 1:00AM AKDT by NWS Juneau AK     🚨 Icy Strait; Northern Chatham Strait: Small Craft Advisory issued October 11 at 9:31AM AKDT until October 11 at 10:00PM AKDT by NWS Juneau AK     🚨 Icy Cape to Cape Suckling from 15 to 80 NM: Gale Warning issued October 11 at 9:31AM AKDT until October 11 at 10:00AM AKDT by NWS Juneau AK    

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 17 UTC 11 Oct 2026

Active storms summary

Select a Storm

ISAIAS (AL092026)

Type: EX Max Wind: 20 kt Min Pressure: 1010 hPa Position: 37.3, -84.8 Basin: North Atlantic

RACHEL (EP182026)

Type: DB Max Wind: 30 kt Min Pressure: 994 hPa Position: 33.9, -115.4 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Remnants Of Rachel Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Rachel has dissipated over the southwestern United States, and this is the last NHC advisory. However, the remnants of Rachel are still producing areas of heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the southwestern U.S. The initial intensity is estimated to be around 30 kt. The remnant trough is forecast to continue to weaken, but the associated moisture will likely produce heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds across the Southwest U.S. today and tonight. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For more information on hazards associated with the Remnants of Rachel, Please consult products from your local weather office at https://www.weather.gov/ Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php Key Messages: 1. Damaging wind gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain, are forecast to spread farther inland over interior portions of the southwestern United States today. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect across the southwestern United States. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall from the remnants of Rachel and its associated moisture will continue to result in the potential for significant flash and urban flooding today from Southern California into the Great Basin and portions of the Southwest United States. 3. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen this morning as the highest waves associated with Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water levels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 35.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

SIMON (EP202026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 130 kt Min Pressure: 933 hPa Position: 18.9, -105.2 Basin: East Pacific
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 900 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 Simon continues to be a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it gets ever closer to the coast of Mexico this morning. Since the previous advisory, the eye definition on infrared satellite has cooled slightly and the overall central dense overcast related to the eyewall convection has been shrinking in size. There was a helpful GPM microwave pass at 1152 UTC, showing that the inner core is showing some hints of disruption, with a larger outer band becoming more dominant on Simon's northwestward side. The 12 UTC subjective Dvorak fix was T6.5/125 kt, and the objective satellite estimates are in the 119-127 kt range, so the initial intensity is being nudged down to 125 kt for this advisory. The hurricane has maintained a north-northwestward motion this morning, or 345 degrees at 5 kt, bringing the hurricane very close to the coast of Mexico. On Simon's current heading, dangerous wind, surge, and rainfall effects appear likely over portions of west-central Mexico in the Hurricane Warning area today. It also remains possible the hurricane makes direct landfall between Playa Perula and Cabo Corrientes in the next 12-18 hours. However, like the previous forecast cycle, the most reliable guidance aids (HCCA, GDMI, WN3I) have shifted westward once again, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction, but due to continuity constraints is not shifted all the way to those solutions yet. To make matters even more uncertain, there are some deterministic global model solutions (00 UTC ECMWF, 06 UTC GFS) that show Simon turning southwestward near the end of the forecast period, and that is also seen in a handful of the Google DeepMind ensemble members. This NHC track continues to favor a track that stays closer to the coast of Mexico before going inland into Mexico in 72-96 h. Needless to say, this is a low confidence track forecast with higher than usual uncertainty given the spread in the guidance. The intensity forecast also presents challenges. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the forecast is sensitive to how close Simon passes to western Mexico during the next day or so. A track closer to the coast or inland would likely result in more severe disruption of Simon's circulation due to the high terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains, leading to rapid weakening. However, with the track shifting further offshore, this weakening may not be as severe, though some negative topographic influence is shown in the majority of the guidance leading to weakening. However, like the track, the current intensity forecast is low confidence forecast because only a small deviation either east or west could result in Simon either dissipating after landfall or staying much stronger than the current forecast offshore. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise between these extremes. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito. Residents should shelter in a safe room to ride out the storm as the most significant hazards with Simon are now ongoing. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 19.2N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 12/0000Z 19.9N 105.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 12…

NOLO (EP152026)

Type: TD Max Wind: 25 kt Min Pressure: 1008 hPa Position: 32.4, 144.9 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.

KOGUMA (WP272026)

Type: HU Max Wind: 110 kt Min Pressure: 947 hPa Position: 26.2, 147.4 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN33 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 26.2N 147.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 341 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 44 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 27W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CIRCULAR, CLEAR EYE MEASURING 20 NM IN DIAMETER EMBEDDED IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND STRENGTHENING POLEWARD EXHAUST ALOFT. THE CDO CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GRADUALLY WARMED AND BECOME LESS UNIFORM, WHILE THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS HELD STEADY AT 16-17 DEGREES CELSIUS. A 110811Z GMI PASS SHOWED A CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING A DETERIORATING INNER EYEWALL, INDICATIVE OF AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). TY 27W IS NOW MOVING OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE ERC, COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SST, IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DEGRADATION OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THIS DEGRADATION IS REFLECTED IN THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS RANGING FROM 112 KTS TO 115 KTS AND THE PGTW FINAL T-NUMBER OF T5.5 WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY OF T6.0. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED, CLEAR EYE IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR 28N 167E AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 111130Z CIMSS AIDT: 114 KTS AT 111130Z CIMSS D-MINT: 115 KTS AT 111142Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 114 KTS AT 111130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR, CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 24, AND THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 60, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER KAMCHATKA, SHIFTING THE MAIN JET CORE FARTHER NORTH. AS TY 27W ACCELERATES POLEWARD, IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE JET CORE BUT PHASE WITH THE RIGHT-FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130-KT JET STREAK BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 60. THIS INTERACTION WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WELL INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 96. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS TY 27W UNDERGOES ERC AND TRAVERSES WATERS WITH MARGINAL SST AND LOW OHC THROUGH TAU 24. THIS COOLER WATER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD WAKES OF FORMER TY 26W AND 15E. THEREAFTER, THE VORTEX WILL CROSS THE 26-DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS. VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 24, REACHING 30-40 KTS BY TAU 48. THESE CONDITIONS ALONE WOULD LEAD TO VERY RAPID WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK INTERACTION WILL MODERATE THE RATE OF WEAKENING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER WEAKENING TREND NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BROADENS AND UNDERGOES ETT. …

95W (WP952026)

Type: TD Max Wind: 25 kt Min Pressure: 1008 hPa Position: 16.1, 150.8 Basin: West Pacific
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

Streamline Wind Map

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

TC Drift Path Map

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: ENE (60°), 17.5 kt   |   Gust: 19.4 kt

Pressure: 30.09   |   Air Temp: 82.6 °F

Water Temp: 85.1 °F   |   Dew Point: 77.2 °F

Swell: 1.0 ft   |   Wind Wave: 3.3 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

US National Radar Loop

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

Satellite

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

GOES IR Band 13

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.