🚨 Tinian; Saipan: Tropical Storm Warning issued October 2 at 3:34AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Ellis, TX; Kaufman, TX; Rockwall, TX: Flood Advisory issued October 1 at 12:31PM CDT until October 1 at 2:30PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX 🚨 Pottawattamie, IA: Flood Warning issued October 1 at 12:29PM CDT until October 2 at 4:00PM CDT by NWS Omaha/Valley NE 🚨 Pottawatomie, KS: Flood Advisory issued October 1 at 12:19PM CDT until October 1 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Topeka KS 🚨 Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass; Far Northeast Highlands; Union County: Wind Advisory issued October 1 at 11:12AM MDT until October 1 at 6:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Northeast Highlands; Harding County; Eastern San Miguel County; Guadalupe County; Quay County; Curry County; Roosevelt County; De Baca County: Wind Advisory issued October 1 at 11:12AM MDT until October 1 at 6:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Jewell, KS; Mitchell, KS; Osborne, KS; Smith, KS: Flood Advisory issued October 1 at 12:10PM CDT until October 1 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Hastings NE 🚨 Coastal Volusia; Coastal Indian River; Coastal St. Lucie; Coastal Martin; Mainland Northern Brevard; Northern Brevard Barrier Islands; Mainland Southern Brevard; Southern Brevard Barrier Islands: Rip Current Statement issued October 1 at 1:10PM EDT until October 2 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Gulf of America from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out and beyond 5 fathoms; Gulf of America from West End of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to 5 Fathoms; Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal out to the reef; Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued October 1 at 1:06PM EDT by NWS Key West FL
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
800 AM MST Thu Oct 01 2026
Satellite images show that Rachel continues to produce deep
convection with cold cloud tops near -80 to -85C. GLM lightning data
also depicts increased lightning activity in the inner core of the
storm. An AMSR3 microwave pass that arrived shortly after the
previous advisory indicated that the low-level center was slightly
farther east within the deep convection and, while there still was
some tilt between the low- and mid-level core, the inner structure
is becoming better defined, particularly on the southern side of the
circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have increased slightly
and vary depending on where the low-level center is placed. The
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was Data-T 5.0/90 kt
with a Final-T of 4.5/77 kt, and the last three DMINT estimates
using various microwave images over the past several hours ranged
between 88-91 kt. Given the improved structure in the microwave data
and current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 90
kt for this advisory.
The system continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/5 kt, and
this motion is expected to continue at a slightly slower forward
speed over the next couple of days. As a trough over the western
U.S. lifts northeastward, a mid-level ridge will build to the north
of Rachel, and a westward motion at an increased forward speed is
expected through the end of the forecast period. There are some
along-track differences in the guidance this cycle regarding when
the westward acceleration begins, with the GDMI and HCCA moving
initially slower than the global models. The NHC track forecast has
been slowed down slightly in the short term, and trends toward the
HCCA and GDMI aids.
Environmental conditions remain generally favorable for
strengthening, with warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of
mid-level moisture. The only inhibiting factor has been the wind
shear that has kept Rachel's strengthening rate more gradual to
steady. Although the wind shear had been forecast to lessen, it has
not done so, and the latest SHIPS forecast now keeps the shear
moderate over the next two days or so. Given the current structure,
the NHC forecast indicates continued strengthening for the next day
or so, which lies above the model guidance. In about 2-3 days, wind
shear is forecast to decrease though the hurricane should encounter
drier mid-level air while the system moves almost parallel to the
27C isotherm. These factors should cause a weakening trend but how
fast that weakening occurs will be highly dependent on the structure
of the system. Additionally, with weak shear and the hurricane
paralleling the 27C isotherm, the structure can sometimes become
annular, moderating the weakening rate. The latest NHC intensity
forecast trends back toward the HCCA intensity aid during the latter
part of the forecast period with gradual weakening, although there
remains uncertainty at that time range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 19.6N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 19.8N 110.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 20.0N 111.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.1N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 20.3N 113.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 114.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 20.5N 117.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 20.6N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Not much has changed in the satellite imagery for Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E over the last several hours. Convection
continues to burst intermittently over the low-level center. The
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T1.5/25 kt, while the UW-CIMSS
intensity estimates are in the range of 27-41 kt. Based on the
available data, the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt for
this advisory.
The system is moving eastward or 90/14kt, and that general motion is
expected to continue until the depression dissipates. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more hostile within the next day
as easterly shear increases and more dry mid-level air gets
entrained into the center. The guidance aids continues to support
this scenario, showing the system dissipating within 24 h. The
current NHC intensity forecast is essentially an update from the
previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.5N 145.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 91 NM NORTH OF TINIAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 26W BEGINNING TO TUCK UNDER THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
AND REDUCING THE VERTICAL TILT. THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO FIGHT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS ATTEMPTING TO EXPAND
UPSHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD
BANDING HAS BECOME TIGHTER AND NOTICEABLY MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE
011158Z ASCAT DATA REVEALS A TIGHT, SLIGHTLY OBLONG INNER CORE
SURROUNDED BY A VAST WIND FIELD. A 011358Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM
SAIPAN RECORDED 32 KTS SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH
(125-150 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
011157Z ASCAT PASS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 011157Z ASCAT DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 011240Z
CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 011240Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 011240Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 26W (CHOI-WAN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. AROUND TAU 12, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL PASS, ERODING THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE. IN RESPONSE, 26W WILL SLOWLY CURVE POLEWARD INTO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD.
26W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM TAU 24-60 WITH
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST PROVIDING THE
NORTHEASTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 60, THE NOW
RE-ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD, CAUSING 26W TO
BRIEFLY CURVE NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE ASSUMING A GENERALLY NORTHWARD
TRACK FROM TAU 96-120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 26W IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. AT AROUND TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, INCLUDING REDUCED VWS OF 10-15 KTS, AN
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PROVIDED BY THE RETREATING STR, AND
HIGH (125-150 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). DUE TO THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TAU 24-72, AN INCREASED RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION MAY BE OBSERVED, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND A PEAK INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 110 KTS. BY TAU 72,
26W IS FORECAST TO ENTER INTO A REGION OF LOWER OHC (50-75 KJ PER CM
SQUARED), WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 72-
120. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH BOTH PHYSICS-BASED AND EXPERIMENTAL AI-
BASED SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATING VERY SIMILAR TRACKS. AFTER TAU 72, THE
PHYSICS-BASED MODELS DEPICT …
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SE (130°), 13.6 kt | Gust: 15.5 kt
Pressure: 29.92 | Air Temp: 85.5 °F
Water Temp: 86.4 °F | Dew Point: 77.4 °F
Swell: 0.0 ft | Wind Wave: 3.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
