ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 800 PM MST Tue Oct 27 2026 The structure of Vance continues to be heavily sheared and ragged based on the current visible satellite imagery. Some of the most recent images have shown that a small convective burst has occurred near the center, however it is also being blown away by the westerly wind shear at this point. In addition to the shear, there is dry air that is getting into the core of the storm, which is keeping the center of Vance fully exposed. The most recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 28-33 kt, while the latest TAFB Dvorak fix is a T2.0/30 kt. Given the available data the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt for this advisory. Vance is moving northwestward at 310/07 kt, as the storm is being steered by a low-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. A gradual turn toward the north is forecast over the next few days due to a strong mid-level trough moving across the U.S. West Coast. As a result, Vance should move toward the Gulf of California by Thursday. The current NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, with some minor adjustments being made based on the latest HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. The intensity portion of the forecast has plenty of uncertainties due to a variety of variables. The cyclone is over warm waters of 29-30 C for the next several days, but the wind shear is expected to be around 40 kt based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance. This could allow for convection to develop near the center, but that convection will then be blown away by the shear. This could also mean that there could be brief fluctuations in intensity at times due to the convection. The most recent GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite guidance shows that there could be one or two more convective bursts from Vance due to some upper-level divergence sometime tomorrow. However, the impacts that this convection could have on the storm are still uncertain. At this point, the cyclone is still expected to become post-tropical around 36 h. By 60 h, it is expected to be a post-tropical remnant low, and finally by 72 h the circulation of Vance is forecast to dissipate. If the storm cannot maintain organized deep convection, it is possible that Vance could transition to a post-tropical cyclone sooner than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. 2. Interests along the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of Vance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.3N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.5N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 30/0000Z 23.5N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 30/1200Z 25.3N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven NNNN

WDIO31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ARNAB) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.2N 81.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 543 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIA FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B. A FORTUITOUS 280030 SENTINEL-1D SAR PASS CAPTURED THE COMPACT LLCC JUST OFFSHORE. THE SAME SAR PASS REVEALED A PEAK VMAX OF 67 KTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAME DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE (INVEST 90B) TEMPORARILY IMPEDING THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN CHINA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS AIDT: 88 KTS AT 272300Z CIMSS D-MINT: 79 KTS AT 272321Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 69 KTS AT 280000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02B MANAGED TO WANDER BACK OFFSHORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE (INVEST 90B) IMPEDED THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT INLAND IMMINENTLY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE STEERING RIDGE TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY TO 02B OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER LAND WILL RESULT IN RAPID DECAY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ABOUT THE NORTHWARD TURN AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DIRECT NORTHWARD TRACK. SURFACE FIELDS IN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CORRECTLY DEPICTED A QUASI- STATIONARY PERIOD NEAR THE INDIAN COAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BLENDS THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, THEN FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT ABOUT THE RAPID DECAY OVER LAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.9N 159.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 817 NM EAST OF SAIPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 30W WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 NM DIAMETER EYE THAT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT AND WARMED TO 19 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SURROUNDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS HIGHLY SYMMETRIC WITH UNIFORM COLD CLOUD TOPS. A 271859Z RCM-3 SAR PASS REVEALED THAT THE SYMMETRY IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE RELATIVELY COMPACT SURFACE WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER OF THE EYE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE ESTIMATES GIVEN THE LARGE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS PHFO: T6.5 - 127 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 130 KTS AT 280000Z CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 280000Z CIMSS AIDT: 122 KTS AT 280000Z CIMSS D-MINT: 121 KTS AT 272315Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 133 KTS AT 280000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE TRACK SPEED OF TY 30W HAS INCREASED TO 8 KTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CURVE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72 IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. A SECONDARY STR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, CREATING A COL REGION AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FROM TAU 72 ONWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A PERIOD OF ERRATIC AND SOMETIMES QUASI STATIONARY MOTION DURING THAT TIME, ALTHOUGH THAT CANNOT BE EXPLICITLY REPRESENTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE TRACK FORECAST INSTEAD PLACES THE POSITION AT TAU 96 AND 120 IN THE GENERAL AREA OF THE MEAN MOTION VECTOR. THE INTENSITY OF TY 30W HAS REBOUNDED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING TO A PEAK AROUND 130 KTS BEFORE LEVELING OFF. THE LARGE DIAMETER EYE AND SOME ATTEMPTS AT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE EXPLICITLY DEPICTED IN THE HAFS-A MODEL FIELDS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSITY CAP AND LATER GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 96, COLD WATER UPWELLING RESULTING FROM THE SLOW TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 65 NM AT THAT TIME AND MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. AFTER TAU 72 THE GUIDANCE SUITE DEPICTS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD, BUT GENERALLY WITH WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD COMPONENTS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN AT A SUBJECTIVE MEAN AMONG THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LATE TAUS. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITHIN A 20 KT ENVELOPE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF …