ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Odalys has not changed much in organization since earlier this morning. The hurricane is producing very deep convection near the center with most of the convective banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is limited over the northwestern quadrant. The advisory intensity is held at 65 kt for now, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a recent DPRINT objective estimate from UW-CIMSS. The system continues to move east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours as Odalys is steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico. A turn toward the northeast and then north, on the southeastern side of the trough, is forecast in a couple of days. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern becomes ill-defined, and potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could complicate the track of Odalys late in the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance. Based on the latest Decay-SHIPS model input, Odalys will be experiencing moderate vertical wind shear for the next 48-72 hours. Some strengthening is likely while the cyclone traverses sufficiently warm ocean waters during the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, increasing shear and marginal SSTs ar expected to bring about a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the objective guidance. This is similar to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.2N 126.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.8N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 19.3N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 22.1N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Polo is continuing to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with infrared imagery showing multiple rings of cold tops near and around the center. Overall, the hurricane is not as intense as it was 24 h ago, as the eye has become less distinct and the eyewall cloud tops have warmed. The various satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, and based on this trend the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 130 kt. Outer rainbands in the northeastern semicircle have reached the coast of Mexico. Polo is starting its forecast turn toward the northwest with the initial motion now 325/4 kt. Water vapor imagery suggests a mid-level ridge is building over Texas and Mexico, and the dynamical models forecast this ridge to build westward to the north of Polo for the next 2-3 days. This evolution should result in Polo moving northwestward and then west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed. The forecast becomes more uncertain after 60-72 h. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to the north to weaken around that time as a mid-latitude trough moves into the western United States. There is also the possibility of interaction with Hurricane Odalys to the west. The guidance becomes divergent by 120 h, with the GFS/HCCA/Google DeepMind/Florida State Superensemble showing a northward motion close to Baja California, while the regional hurricane models/UKMET/Canadian show a northwestward motion farther away from Baja. The track forecast goes with the northward motion scenario, but there is a significant amount of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast. The trends of the intensity forecast guidance suggest that Polo could weaken a little during the next day or so, followed by re-intensification during the ensuing 24 h. The first two days of the intensity forecast follow these trends, and there could be fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on top of this overall trend. After 48 h, the environment gradually becomes less favorable due to slightly stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air entrainment. The guidance forecast slow weakening during this time, and the new intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and then lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.5N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 105.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.0N 107.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 112.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

WDIO31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.8N 84.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 380 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B COMPLETELY OBSCURED BY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR FROM THE AREA REVEALS A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING TOWARDS THE INDIAN COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR REVEALING THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE PGTW DVORAK FIX LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 231000Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 231130Z CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 231130Z CIMSS D-MINT: 42 KTS AT 231028Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 231130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF A MID-LAYER STR CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. 01B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM PRIOR TO TAU 12. REGARDING INTENSITY, 01B IS CURRENTLY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED LAND INTERACTION THAT WILL PROHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED NO LATER THEN TAU 24. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIKEWISE, RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.5N 137.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 413 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (SURIGAE) AS A COMPLETELY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERIPHERY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING VISIBLE FROM UNDER THE EXPANDING CANOPY. THE 231101Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE HIGHEST 30 KT WIND SPEEDS ARE A RESPECTABLY SIZED SWATH CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT IS RELEGATED TO A SMALL STRIP OF 15-20 KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), HIGH (100-120 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 231101Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 231140Z CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 231140Z CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 230945Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 231140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 25W (SURIGAE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR CURRENTLY CENTERED TO ITS NORTH-NORTHEAST. 25W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TRACK SPEED THROUGH TAU 48-60, AT WHICH POINT, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND A WEAKER MID- LAYER STR CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CHINA. AROUND TAU 60-72, SURIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE AND TURN NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS AND BEGIN TO TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. BETWEEN TAU 72-96, 25W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE ABOUT THE STEERING RIDGE WHILE TRACKING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. FROM TAU 96 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, 25W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE THE DEEP-LAYER STR MAINTAINS STEERING AUTHORITY OVER THE SYSTEM. REGARDING INTENSITY, 25W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 48. AT THAT POINT, 25W MAY UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TAU 48-96. DURING THAT TIME, SURIGAE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IN ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS OVER HIGH OHC VALUES. 25W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK AT TAU 120, WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL …