🚨 Waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Mexico Beach from 20 to 60 NM: Special Marine Warning issued July 30 at 12:32PM CDT until July 30 at 2:00PM CDT by NWS Tallahassee FL 🚨 Brevard, FL; Osceola, FL: Flood Advisory issued July 30 at 1:32PM EDT until July 30 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Huron Islands to Marquette MI; Marquette to Munising MI; Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore: Marine Weather Statement issued July 30 at 1:32PM EDT by NWS Marquette MI 🚨 Marquette; Alger: Special Weather Statement issued July 30 at 1:31PM EDT by NWS Marquette MI 🚨 Nelson; Grand Forks: Special Weather Statement issued July 30 at 12:29PM CDT by NWS Grand Forks ND 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA; Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island: Small Craft Advisory issued July 30 at 1:25PM EDT until July 30 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC 🚨 Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD; Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD; Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD; Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD; Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA; Chester River to Queenstown MD; Eastern Bay; Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River: Small Craft Advisory issued July 30 at 1:25PM EDT until July 30 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC 🚨 Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD; Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD; Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor; Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD: Small Craft Advisory issued July 30 at 1:25PM EDT until July 30 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC 🚨 Washita; Caddo; Canadian; Oklahoma; Lincoln; Grady; McClain; Cleveland; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Hughes; Harmon; Greer; Kiowa; Jackson; Tillman; Comanche; Stephens; Garvin; Murray; Pontotoc; Cotton; Jefferson; Carter; Johnston; Love; Marshall; Hardeman; Foard; Wilbarger; Wichita; Knox; Baylor; Archer; Clay: Heat Advisory issued July 30 at 12:20PM CDT until July 30 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Norman OK
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
500 AM HST Thu Jul 30 2026
Genevieve is feeling the effects of cooler SSTs and relatively dry
mid-level air this morning. Infrared satellite presentation is
showing warming cloud tops east of the center, and the deepest
convection is displaced to the south and west. However, an earlier
GMI microwave pass showed a compact, fully intact and closed
circulation, though the eye is becoming ragged and lopsided.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are slowly declining and range
from 61-69 kt, while the latest objective estimate from TAFB was
4.5/77 kt. The intensity for this advisory is lowered to 70 kt.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest at a faster pace
near 13 kt, and this motion is expected to continue into this
weekend as ridging builds to the north. By the latter half of the
weekend, Genevieve is forecast to turn toward the northwest then
north-northwest as a mid-level trough develops to the northwest and
helps steer the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast has been
nudged slightly to the left of the previous advisory, and remains in
the middle of the consensus guidance envelope, nearest to HCCA and
the Google DeepMind.
Genevieve is moving into increasingly cool waters of less than 26C,
which will be the main factor leading to gradual weakening. In
addition, drier mid-level air will impact the system over the coming
days, and the latest NHC forecast has been adjusted downward over
the next 36 h, showing Genevieve falling below hurricane strength
later today. During the upcoming weekend, the cyclone may struggle
to produce organized convection due to persistent dry air
entrainment and a more stable environment, and the system is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 h. The latest
NHC forecast intensity lies near the middle of the intensity
consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 20.6N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 21.7N 128.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 23.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 24.2N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 25.1N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 03/1200Z 27.2N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z 30.2N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 163.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 188 NM SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, STY 12W HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A
WELL-DEFINED 14-NM WIDE CLEAR EYE, TO A COMPLETELY CLOUD-FILLED AND
RAPIDLY SHRINKING EYE FEATURE, WHICH THEN DISAPPEARED BRIEFLY. THE
MOST RECENT FRAMES OF ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY, HOWEVER,
PROVIDE INITIAL INDICATION OF A NEW EYE FORMING. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SINCE 300154Z, AND THE STATUS
OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) REMAINS AMBIGUOUS. A 301017Z
MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWED A NASCENT OUTER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF
ROUGHLY 30NM, WHICH REMAINED OPEN IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT; IT
CAN BE SURMISED THAT THE ERC IS NEARLY COMPLETE BASED ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY IN THE
NEAR-TERM THAT THE EYE WILL REAPPEAR AND CLEAR OUT, AT ROUGHLY DOUBLE
THE SIZE OF THE ORIGINAL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING EYE IN THE EIR AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE MHS IMAGE NOTED ABOVE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES REMAIN ELEVATED
WHILE THE FINAL-T VALUES HAVE DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY, WITH MOST
AGENCIES REPORTING A FINAL-T BETWEEN T6.0 AND T6.5. CIMSS ADJUSTED T-
VALUES HAVE DECREASED TO T6.3, AND THE AIDT AND DPRINT ALSO CONTINUE
TO DECREASE RAPIDLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED NEAR THE AVERAGE
OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS
ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION
OF A SUBTROPICAL JET FAR TO THE EAST. THE PRIMARY FACTOR CAPPING
INTENSIFICATION IS SUCCESSIVE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND THE
CONCOMITANT EXPANSION OF THE EYE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP, SMOS, AND SAR DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN EXPANSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OF THE
ALEUTIANS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N 170W.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS
RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
PHFO: T7.0 - 140 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 132 KTS AT 301200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 125 KTS AT 301200Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 140 KTS AT 301021Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 140 KTS AT 301200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC).
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST NO LONGER EXPLICITLY
CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 12W CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN EXPANSIVE, NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED
STR COMPLEX TO THE EAST. FAR TO THE NORTHWEST, A RELATIVELY STRONG
AND DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
HONSHU. BY TAU 36, THE TROUGH WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM EQUATORWARD
EXTENT BEFORE RAPIDLY FILLING AND WITHDRAWING NORTHWARD AS THE
ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WHILE THE
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY FILLING AND MOVING AWAY, AND HENCE UNABLE TO
RECURVE STY 12W NORTHWARD, IT WILL GENERATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SSE (160°), 3.9 kt | Gust: 3.9 kt
Pressure: 30.05 | Air Temp: 86.0 °F
Water Temp: 86.9 °F | Dew Point: 77.4 °F
Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 0.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
