🚨 Corson; Campbell; McPherson; Walworth; Edmunds; Dewey; Potter; Faulk; Stanley; Sully; Hughes; Hyde; Hand; Jones; Lyman; Buffalo: Heat Advisory issued July 25 at 6:27AM CDT until July 26 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Aberdeen SD 🚨 Traverse; Big Stone; Brown; Marshall; Roberts; Day; Spink; Clark; Codington; Grant; Hamlin; Deuel: Heat Advisory issued July 25 at 6:27AM CDT until July 26 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Aberdeen SD 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Hall; Childress; Motley; Cottle: Heat Advisory issued July 25 at 6:21AM CDT until July 25 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX 🚨 Cody Foothills; North Bighorn Basin; Southwest Bighorn Basin; Southeast Bighorn Basin; Northeast Johnson County; Southeast Johnson County; Wind River Basin; Lander Foothills; Natrona County Lower Elevations: Heat Advisory issued July 25 at 5:19AM MDT until July 26 at 9:00PM MDT by NWS Riverton WY 🚨 Madison, IL: Flood Advisory issued July 25 at 6:09AM CDT until July 25 at 9:15AM CDT by NWS St Louis MO 🚨 Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm; Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm; Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm; Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm; Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm; Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm: Small Craft Advisory issued July 25 at 3:41AM PDT until July 25 at 5:00PM PDT by NWS Seattle WA 🚨 Barber: Heat Advisory issued July 25 at 5:37AM CDT until July 27 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Dodge City KS 🚨 Trego; Ellis; Scott; Lane; Ness; Rush; Hamilton; Kearny; Finney; Hodgeman; Pawnee; Stafford; Stanton; Grant; Haskell; Gray; Ford; Edwards; Kiowa; Pratt; Morton; Stevens; Seward; Meade; Clark; Comanche: Heat Advisory issued July 25 at 5:37AM CDT until July 27 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Dodge City KS 🚨 Barber: Extreme Heat Warning issued July 25 at 5:37AM CDT until July 25 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Dodge City KS
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2026
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has
changed little during the past several hours. However, intermittent
intrusions of mid-level dry air have begun to erode the deep
convection over the northwestern quadrant and eyewall. Despite these
fluctuations, Fausto continues to maintain a well-defined eye and
well-established upper-level outflow. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 75 to 90 kt. Based on
the recent satellite trends and a blend of the available intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. A strong subtropical ridge
is forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto through the
forecast period, steering the cyclone generally westward during the
next several days. The latest track guidance remains tightly
clustered through about 96 h, with somewhat greater spread
developing thereafter as the system passes just north of the main
Hawaiian Islands. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus (HCCA) to the
north and the ECMWF to the south. Although the current forecast
brings Fausto just north of the Hawaiian Islands during the Tuesday
through Wednesday time frame, the islands remain well within the
typical day 4-5 track error envelope, and interests across the state
should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane.
A gradual weakening trend appears to have begun as intermittent
intrusions of mid-level dry air begin to erode Fausto's convective
structure. However, the hurricane is expected to remain well
organized through much of Saturday while moving over warm waters.
Thereafter, progressively cooler sea surface temperatures, a drier
surrounding environment, and increasing westerly vertical wind shear
by early next week should result in continued weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, maintaining a
well-defined cyclone through Saturday before gradually eroding the
convective structure late this weekend into early next week. By the
time Fausto approaches the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a
weakening tropical storm with the deepest convection becoming
increasingly displaced from the low-level center. The NHC intensity
forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and remains
near the upper end of the guidance envelope.
Key Messages:
1. Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands early next week, uncertainty remains regarding its
exact track and intensity. The current forecast brings the center
just north of the islands, but a track farther south would result in
a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Interests
across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the
Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to
begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the
state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and
continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves
into the area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 18.8N 135.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.1N 136.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 19.5N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 141.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.2N 144.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 20.6N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 149.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 155.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 22.9N 159.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
300 AM CST Sat Jul 25 2026
Microwave and scatterometer data received since the previous
advisory indicates that Genevieve has a small inner wind core, with
conventional imagery showing strong convection near and just south
of the center. However, it is unclear whether a tight convective
spiral seen in the microwave data has continued to develop since
the overpass. Satellite intensity estimates are generally near
45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity. The initial 34-kt
wind radii have been decreased a little based on the scatterometer
data.
The track forecast reasoning is unchanged since the previous
advisory. A strong mid-level anticyclone system is centered over
the western United States, with a ridge axis extending west-
southwestward over the Pacific Ocean. This will be the main driver
of Genevieve's motion over the next 5 days and should keep the storm
away from the coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good
agreement that the cyclone will move west-northwestward or
northwestward during the forecast period with some ups and downs in
forward speed. The new forecast track is almost identical to the
previous forecast and lies near both HCCA and the Google DeepMind
Ensemble Mean.
The cyclone is forecast to be in an environment favorable for steady
to rapid strengthening, especially given the presence of the small
inner core. While there could be a little northerly shear, the
rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model are very high, with
a 75-90 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48
h. The main issue remains just how strong Genevieve will get. The
HCCA model continues to show a peak intensity near 130 kt, while
most of the other guidance is clustered between peak intensities of
100-115 kt. The new intensity forecast will keep the 115 kt peak
intensity from the previous forecast, which is at the upper edge of
everything but HCCA. After reaching peak intensity in about 60 h,
Genevieve is expected to encounter a drier air mass and eventually
cooler waters. This combination should cause slow to steady
weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 10.0N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 11.0N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 12.2N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 13.4N 109.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 16.0N 113.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.0N 114.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 18.5N 117.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.1N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NOUL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.3N 116.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 147 NM EAST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING
EYE, WHICH REMAINS RAGGED AND CLOUD-FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE NASCENT EYE FEATURE, BUT
STRUGGLING TO WRAP TO THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE EYE. CIMSS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, MODEL-BASED SOUNDINGS AND LAYER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE MID-LEVELS, WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR.
REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM IS STEADILY IMPROVING AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. ANIMATED RADAR DATA DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED LOWER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE, WITH AN EYE DIAMETER OF
APPROXIMATELY 25NM AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED TOWARDS THE KNES T4.5
ESTIMATE BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE.
CIMSS ADT AND AIDT HAVE YET TO TRIGGER AN EYE PATTERN ALGORITHM,
RESULTING IN AN UNDERESTIMATED INTENSITY, WHILE A NOAA-21 MICROWAVE
SOUNDER ESTIMATE SUPPORTED 75 KNOTS. ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR, VERY WARM SSTS AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NEAR OKINAWA.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 250630Z
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 250600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 46 KTS AT 250600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 63 KTS AT 250547Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 71 KTS AT 250540Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NOUL) CONTINUES TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CHINESE COASTLINE. OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE TRACK HAS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY, LIKELY DUE TO
A PERSISTENT EXTENSION OF THE STR WHICH EXTENDS FROM SHANGHAI TO
NORTHERN VIETNAM. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THIS RIDGE EXTENSION
WEAKENING AND RETREATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY
11W TO RESUME A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM. LANDFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF HONG KONG WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL DECELERATE DUE TO INCREASING SURFACE
FRICTION AND TERRAIN INTERACTION AS IT TURNS STEADILY POLEWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
REMAINING OVER OPEN WATERS WILL PLACE A CAP ON THE PEAK INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS
SIMULTANEOUS WITH LANDFALL, AT TAU 12. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BY TAU 48.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH
MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THROUGH LANDFALL. THE
GUIDANC…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ESE (110°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 13.6 kt
Pressure: 30.05 | Air Temp: 84.7 °F
Water Temp: 84.7 °F | Dew Point: 79.2 °F
Swell: 1.0 ft | Wind Wave: 2.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
