🚨 Clarence Strait: Small Craft Advisory issued November 2 at 8:25AM AKST until November 3 at 5:00PM AKST by NWS Juneau AK 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Bayside and Gulfside from Craig Key to West End of Seven Mile Bridge; Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out to the reef: Special Marine Warning issued November 2 at 12:24PM EST until November 2 at 1:15PM EST by NWS Key West FL 🚨 Martin, FL; Okeechobee, FL; St. Lucie, FL: Flood Advisory issued November 2 at 12:22PM EST until November 2 at 3:15PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Rio Arriba, NM: Flood Advisory issued November 2 at 10:10AM MST until November 5 at 11:00PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Brevard, FL; Indian River, FL: Flash Flood Warning issued November 2 at 12:10PM EST until November 2 at 1:45PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Maricopa, AZ: Flood Warning issued November 2 at 10:07AM MST until November 2 at 12:15PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ 🚨 Pryor/Northern Bighorn Mountains; Northeast Bighorn Mountains: Winter Weather Advisory issued November 2 at 10:06AM MST until November 2 at 8:00PM MST by NWS Billings MT 🚨 Mohave, AZ: Flood Warning issued November 2 at 9:01AM PST until November 2 at 11:15AM PST by NWS Las Vegas NV 🚨 Brevard, FL: Flash Flood Warning issued November 2 at 11:59AM EST until November 2 at 3:00PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook
Valid: 17 UTC 02 Nov 2026
Select a Storm
MURASU
(IO042026)
Type: HUMax Wind: 65 ktMin Pressure: 991 hPaPosition: 14.3, 80.9Basin: North Indian
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (MURASU) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.7N 80.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 645 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP CONVECTION
PRODUCING VIGOROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSESSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED DOPPLER RADAR
REFLECTIVITY FROM IMD DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE FEATURE
APPROXIMATELY 15 NM IN DIAMETER, CO-LOCATED BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE
CDO IN THE EIR IMAGERY. CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE APPROACHING -90 CELSIUS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, SYNOPTIC-SCALE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL
DIVERGES UPSTREAM OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, SUPPORTING ROBUST
DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW THAT IS PARTICULARLY
PRONOUNCED ALONG THE POLEWARD CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED
BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVERALL,
SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), STRONG DUAL-
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
INHIBITING FACTORS INCLUDE INCREASING OCEANIC UPWELLING INDUCED BY
THE VORTEX DECELERATING TO 05 KTS OR LESS, MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR, AND CONTINENTAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) OVER THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIA.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 021130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 62 KTS AT 021130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 66 KTS AT 021002Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 67 KTS AT 021130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND, LOCALIZED OCEANIC UPWELLING, AND
MODERATE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HORIZON HAS BEEN TRUNCATED
TO 36 HOURS DUE TO FORECAST DISSIPATION OVER LAND.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE EASTERN INDIAN COASTLINE, EMBEDDED WITHIN A RAPIDLY
EVOLVING COL REGION BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONIC STR CENTERS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE WESTERN
STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD, WHILE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR WILL REORIENT ALONG A MORE
MERIDIONAL AXIS, STEERING TC 04B ONTO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. FORECAST TRANSLATION SPEEDS WILL REMAIN SLOW, HOWEVER, AS
THE VORTEX SPINS DOWN POST-LANDFALL, VERTICALLY DECOUPLES, AND
BECOMES GOVERNED BY PROGRESSIVELY LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW
THAT IS WEAKER THAN THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL DECELERATION OR A
SHARPER MERIDIONAL DEFLECTION WOULD DELAY LANDFALL BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND SHIFT THE LANDFALL LOCATION FURTHER POLEWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE.
FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT SLOWLY INLAND BEFORE
RECURVING SHARPLY WESTWARD BY…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 23.0N 140.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 124 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FRAGMENTED,
MODERATE CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING ALONG THE REMNANT EYEWALL AT A
RADIUS OF APPROXIMATELY 50 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 020811Z SSMIS 89-GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC ACCOMPANIED BY A
FRAGMENTED REMNANT EYEWALL, WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTED A BROAD EXPANSE OF
MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST, ALONG AND BEHIND AN
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC COLD-FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY POSITIONED
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF TYPHOON (TY) 30W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) AND JTWC STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY
OVERLAYING TY 30W AND A 200-HPA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF
THE VORTEX, WHICH SUSTAINS A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
UNOBSCURED LLCC IN THE SWIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WEIGHTED AT THE UPPER BOUND OF THE
AVAILABLE ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW BASED ON TEMPORAL EXTRAPOLATION OF
AN EARLIER ASCAT ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION (UHR) RETRIEVAL, WHICH
SUPPORTS A HIGHER SURFACE VORTEX INTENSITY THAN DVORAK-BASED
ESTIMATES INDICATE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED FROM ITS
UPWELLED COLD WAKE. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR REMAINS THE
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 30W IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK, COMPETING
STEERING REGIME WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERS TO THE EAST AND WEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 020930Z
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 021130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 56 KTS AT 021130Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 021130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 30W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD COL
REGION BETWEEN STR CENTERS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE BROADER SYNOPTIC
RIDGE COMPLEX HAS BEEN RETROGRADING SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING
ITS RELATIVE POSITIONAL GEOMETRY, THOUGH THIS WESTWARD RETROGRESSION
IS NEARING ITS ZONAL INFLECTION POINT. THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
IS POISED TO UNDERGO A STRUCTURAL RECONFIGURATION, AND TY 30W WILL
DECELERATE ONCE MORE AS THE STEERING GRADIENT EVOLVES AROUND IT. A
SERIES OF TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS BEGINNING TO
PASS TO THE NORTH AND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING TY 30W TO
GRADUALLY RECURVE POLEWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A SLOW TRANSLATION
SPEED. BY TAU 36, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ERODED AND RETROGRADED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE EASTERN RIDGE TO ASSUME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 36, THE …
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ENE (60°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 13.6 kt
Pressure: 30.02 | Air Temp: 80.6 °F
Water Temp: | Dew Point: 75.6 °F
Swell: 2.6 ft | Wind Wave: 1.6 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
