🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Cook, IL; Will, IL: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 12:35PM CDT until July 27 at 1:30PM CDT by NWS Chicago IL 🚨 Northwest Highlands; West Central Plateau; West Central Mountains; West Central Highlands; Southwest Mountains; San Francisco River Valley; Jemez Mountains; Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass; Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains; East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains; Santa Fe Metro Area; Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood; Far Northeast Highlands; Northeast Highlands; San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands: Flood Watch issued July 27 at 11:34AM MDT until July 28 at 9:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Kenosha, WI: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 12:33PM CDT until July 27 at 1:15PM CDT by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 🚨 Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm: Marine Weather Statement issued July 27 at 1:33PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI; Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 12:33PM CDT until July 27 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Green Bay WI 🚨 Calumet, WI; Manitowoc, WI; Winnebago, WI: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 12:33PM CDT until July 27 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Green Bay WI 🚨 Flagler, FL; St. Johns, FL: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 1:33PM EDT until July 27 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Richmond (Staten Is.): Special Weather Statement issued July 27 at 1:32PM EDT by NWS Upton NY 🚨 Calumet, WI; Manitowoc, WI; Winnebago, WI: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 12:32PM CDT until July 27 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Green Bay WI
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
800 AM MST Mon Jul 27 2026
After rapidly intensifying over the past 24-36 h, Genevieve's
impressive strengthening appears to have ended this morning. The eye
remains clear and very warm with temperatures above 20 C, however,
the IR satellite presentation is beginning to wane, with cloud top
temperatures below -70 C no longer fully wrapping around. It is
possible that Genevieve is in the beginning stages of an eyewall
replacement cycle, as suggested by an earlier GMI pass, and some
fluctuations in intensity are expected when this occurs. The 12Z
TAFB intensity estimate was 6.5/127 kt, and the latest subjective
estimates range from 130-143 kt. Based on these estimates and the
slightly less impressive satellite presentation, the initial
intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory.
Genevieve is moving toward the northwest around 11 kt, steered by a
strong upper-level ridge centered over the west-central United
States. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion and a slight
decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days
as the ridge axis shifts eastward. The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA
corrected consensus.
Genevieve will remain in an environment with warm SSTs near 29 C,
low vertical wind shear and favorable upper-level divergence over
the next 12 h or so. However, the Microwave-based Probability of
Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) guidance indicates a 42 percent
chance of an eyewall replacement cycle over the next 24 h, and some
fluctuations in intensity will be possible if this occurs. As
Genevieve moves toward the northwest and west-northwest through
midweek, the major hurricane will encounter cooler waters and
gradually drier mid-level relative humidity, leading to steady
weakening. By 72 h, Genevieve is forecast to move north of 20N and
encounter waters cooler than 26 C, leading to a more rapid weakening
trend for late this week into this weekend. The latest NHC lies near
the middle of the intensity consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 16.0N 113.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.8N 114.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.2N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 20.4N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 22.1N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 23.9N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Adams/Papin
NNNN
Threshold
Probability
× Climatology
20kt/12hr
7%
1.0×
25kt/24hr
0%
0.0×
30kt/24hr
0%
0.0×
35kt/24hr
0%
0.0×
40kt/24hr
0%
0.0×
45kt/36hr
0%
0.0×
55kt/48hr
0%
0.0×
65kt/72hr
0%
0.0×
93I
(IO932026)
Type: TDMax Wind: 25 ktMin Pressure: 993 hPaPosition: 21.7, 88.5Basin: North Indian
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.6N 175.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 601 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LACK
OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRECLUDES A
DEFINITIVE ANALYSIS OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE
VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) SEEN IN THE EIR ARE STRUGGLING TO
CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION,
INDICATIVE OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE CIMSS ANALYZED VALUES. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP EASTERLIES BASED ON THE LATEST CIRA DERIVED
MOTION VECTOR (DMV) ANALYSIS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF LOW-TO-
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, PLACED NEAR THE CENTROID OF RECENT
DVORAK POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, BIASED TOWARDS THE HIGHER T3.0 FIX FROM PHFO AND THE
CONGRUENT D-PRINT ESTIMATE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), WITH
MINIMAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, VERY WARM SSTS (29-30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXPANSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 271140Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 271140Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 271140Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (DOLPHIN) HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY TURN ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF A
LARGE STR TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AN
EXPANSIVE, DEEP-LAYER UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
AND TAKE UP POSITION NEAR 30N 175E, INDUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR PATTERN AND RESULTING IN A WEAKENING STEERING GRADIENT. IN
RESPONSE, TS 12W WILL DECELERATE WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK. BY TAU 36, A SECOND STR AXIS CENTERED WEST OF HAWAII WILL
BUILD WESTWARD, EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
CONNECTING WITH THE STR CENTER EAST OF JAPAN. THIS WILL PRESENT A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS
12W. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, REACHING ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO 30N, WILL TRACK EAST OF JAPAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS WILL INDUCE TS 12W TO TURN ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER
TAU 36, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
INTENSITY, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMAL TO SUPPORT
RI OR ERI. THE VORTEX MUST FULLY CONSOLIDATE AND SYMMETRIZE FIRST,
WHICH IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY. ONCE VORTEX ALIGNMENT IS ACHIEVED, THE
SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF ERI, EX…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: NW (320°), 7.8 kt | Gust: 9.7 kt
Pressure: 30.03 | Air Temp: 85.1 °F
Water Temp: 86.2 °F | Dew Point: 78.8 °F
Swell: | Wind Wave:
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
