ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026 Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with conventional and microwave satellite imagery shows that Rachel has been re-organizing for the past several hours. Microwave data near 13Z indicated that the cyclone had a ragged inner core with no organized eyewall. During the time that the aircraft has been in the storm, the eyewall has gotten better defined in the southeastern semicircle and the radius of maximum winds is getting smaller. The maximum 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft has been 82 kt, and the central pressure is currently near 978 mb. Based mainly on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. It should be noted that shear analyses show that the hurricane is still be affected by about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. The initial motion is still northwestward or 315/7 kt. Rachel continues to move along the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge over northern and central Mexico. This ridge is weakening due to the effects of a large mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As this trough moves northeastward and weakens during the next couple of days, this should allow another ridge to build to the north of the tropical cyclone. As a result, Rachel is forecast to turn west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula before continuing westward away from land. The new forecast track is a little to the north of the previous track for the first 60 h, and thereafter is similar to the previous track. Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility if the tighter inner core that Rachel is trying to develop maintains itself. Thus, the early portion of the intensity forecast keeps the same rate of intensification to a major hurricane as the previous forecasts. However, there remains two possible negative influences including the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler water left by Polo. Later on the forecast period, decreasing sea surface temperatures under the forecast track and dry air entrainment could cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast is again an update of the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of Mexico, wind gusts of tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. 2. Outer bands from Rachel will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal southwest Mexico. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 18.8N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 19.1N 108.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 19.6N 109.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 19.9N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 20.0N 110.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 20.3N 113.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.6N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Although the depression has a well-defined circulation, convection has fallen apart this afternoon, with the low-level circulation almost totally exposed. Satellite intensity estimates are falling again, so the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt using a blend of the objective and subjective values. The depression is moving eastward at about 12 kt. This general motion is expected during the next couple of days as the depression moves south of the remnants of Odalys and eventually starts to move on the southwestern side of Rachel's much larger circulation. The track forecast is shifted a little to the north, mostly based on a more precise initial positions from visible satellite images. Little change in intensity is shown for the depression due to moderate shear and plentiful dry mid-level air, somewhat countered by warming SSTs. The shear is forecast to increase somewhat along with a bit drier mid-level environment, which is likely to bring an end to any organized convection. Thus, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours, similar to the latest global models simulated satellite data. I will just mention some of the guidance is showing some re-intensification on Thursday, but that is deemed unlikely due to the unfavorable environmental factors listed above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 15.2N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.3N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 15.3N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 31.2N 138.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 256 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH THE ONLY REMAINING ASSOCIATED PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED CENTER AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM A 300347Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 300347Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 300407Z CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 300540Z CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 300540Z CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 300408Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 300740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 25W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MERGING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY TAU 12, WHICH WILL INITIATE THE TRANSITION PROCESS. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND HOLD STEADY OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY THEREAFTER DUE TO FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE CURRENT CYCLE, BUT HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRESPONDINGLY NUDGED POLEWARD AND IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL STEADY INTENSITY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS THE COURSE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.2N 150.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 331 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED BANDING DISPLACED WEST OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS PARTICULARLY DEEP, WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -90 DEGREES CELSIUS, WHILE THE CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. A 301448Z AMSR3 PASS INDICATES THAT THE VORTEX IS TILTED WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF NEAR 20 KTS, WHICH IS PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED. DESPITE THE SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERY HIGH OHC NEAR 140 KJ PER CM2, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO ACCOUNT FOR VORTEX TILT. AN AGED 301015Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A COMPACT PATCH OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH BROADER 20- TO 25-KT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REMAINING QUADRANTS. GIVEN THE GAP SINCE THAT PASS AND SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION, IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE OBSERVED STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT HAS ONLY EXPANDED THE AREAL FOOTPRINT OF GALES OR ALSO INCREASED THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS. ACCORDINGLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY AIDT AND THE T2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 301430Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 301430Z CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 301540Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 301710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED BEYOND TAU 48. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR CENTERED NEAR 31N 169E. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHERN HONSHU AND HOKKAIDO WILL ERODE THE STR. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN MARKEDLY, AND TS 26W WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN POLEWARD NEAR TAU 36 AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR REORIENTS, AND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRAJECTORY WILL NUDGE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, GIVING TIME FOR THE STORM TO BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND MORE SYMMETRIC. AFTER TAU 24, THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EASE. COUPLED WITH VERY WARM SST AND VERY HIGH OHC, THE LOWER SHEAR AND RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENABLE TS 26W TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER LOWER OHC, WHICH WILL LIMIT CONTIN…