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Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to gradually lose
convective organization. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from
TAFB is 65 kt, and objective intensity estimates have fallen to the
55-62 range. A 1734 UTC partial ASCAT-B overpass shows some 50-kt
vectors in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is lowered
to a possibly generous 65 kt for this advisory.
Marie is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion
estimate of 315/6 kt. A bend more to the west-northwest is expected
tonight as the mid- to upper-level trough north of Marie currently
causing the northwestward motion moves eastward on Monday and
loosens its grip on Marie. Then, another mid- to upper-level low
will strengthen over the Pacific to the northwest of Marie, causing
a turn back toward the northwest, or possibly north-northwest on
Tuesday. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one
and closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI). Based on the spread in the guidance,
confidence in the track forecast is near average.
Marie is traveling over 25 C sea-surface temperatures and through a
dry airmass. The cyclone will continue moving over progressively
cooler water and into a progressively drier airmass over the next
couple of days. Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast.
Although vertical wind shear is weak right now, southwesterly shear
is forecast to increase in 36-48 h as Marie approaches the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. Little to
no change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
This forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance suite. Marie
is now forecast to lose it's convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low by day 3 (Wednesday). After the system becomes
post-tropical, global models show it weakening and dissipating in 4
to 5 days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 24.0N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH)
WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.8N 131.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 209 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHALLOW,
BUT SYMMETRIC PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE CORE. THE FLARING CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW AND UNABLE TO
PERSIST AROUND THE CORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN LIMITED TO A WEAK
WESTWARD CHANNEL PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE VORTEX IS
ALSO EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN
EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DESPITE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR, LOW-MODERATE VWS, AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 061810Z
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 061810Z
CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 061810Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 061723Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 061810Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W HAS CONTINUED ON AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE SOUTH. A POLEWARD TURN IS IMMINENT AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND
TAKES CONTROL OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF
EIR SUGGEST THAT THE TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HAS ALREADY STARTED. THE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
TURN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36
PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF THE SURROUNDING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER TAU
36, A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS VWS INCREASES AND
THE SURROUNDING PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. DISSIPATION OF TD 22W IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 60, JUST BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES SOUTHERN HONSHU.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COLLAPSED TO A MAXIMUM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM THROUGH TAU 60, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE INTENSITY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 30 KTS, WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS OF GFS-BASED COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A, WHICH BOTH DEPICT A
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KTS AROUND TAU 48. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS WITH THE REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE THAT DEPICTS DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 60.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TR…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: WNW (300°), 1.9 kt | Gust: 1.9 kt
Pressure: 29.87 falling | Air Temp: 86.9 °F
Water Temp: 88.2 °F | Dew Point: 78.8 °F
Swell: | Wind Wave:
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
