ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 800 AM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 First-light visible imagery indicates that Simon has continued to lose organization during the last several hours. The low-level center is now located near the northern edge of the convective overcast due to the effects of northerly shear. However, there is still no microwave imagery of the storm to better diagnose the internal structure. The satellite intensity estimates have trended down, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 80 kt. The hurricane continues drifting southwest or 230/2 kt. For the next day or two, Simon is likely to continue drifting southwestward in an area of light steering currents, with the center remaining well offshore. After that time, the track forecast becomes less confident. While all of the global models agree that a mid- to upper-level trough should form west of Baja California after 48 h, there is poor agreement on the track forecasts for Simon during this time. The GFS and the regional hurricane models forecast that Simon will continue moving southward or southwestward through 72 h, followed by a slow movement toward the northwest. The remainder of the guidance favors a northwestward or north-northwestward turn between 36-48 h, with that motion continuing through the end of the forecast period. The new track forecast follows the latter scenario in anticipation that the center will try to follow convective bursts displaced to the north by southerly shear. The new forecast track is again adjusted west of the previous track, but it lies to the east of the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Simon's small size makes it susceptible to intensity fluctuations based on the state of its compact inner core and small changes in the environmental conditions. The current northerly shear is forecast to diminish during the next 12-24 h, which may allow some modest re-intensification. By 36 h, increasing southerly to southwesterly upper-level flow between the trough to the northwest and Tropical Storm Trudy to the southeast should cause significant shear and aid in the entrainment of dry air. This should cause steady weakening, with Simon expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches Baja California Sur. The system is likely to decay to a remnant low by 120 h as the shear and dry air cause the convection to dissipate. Simon continues to be a challenging storm to forecast, and confidence remains lower than normal given the weak steering, proximity to land, very small size, and significant model spread. Key Messages: 1. While Simon is no longer expected to bring hurricane conditions to Las Islas Marias, interests in west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates. Watches or warnings could be required for portions of Baja California Sur over the next day or two. 2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 19.7N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.5N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.3N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.2N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.9N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 21.2N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 22.6N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 24.5N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 Trudy continues to gradually become better organized. Geostationary satellite images show a cold central convective area, with the low-level center likely underneath the western portion of this convection, although there have only been a couple of microwave passes over the past 6 to 12 hours, so confidence in the initial position is still not particularly high. Trudy also has loosely connected outer curved convective bands to the northeast and west. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB is 3.5/55 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging from 36 to 45 kt. The intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory, since the latest satellite images show continued gradual improvement in the convective organization. Trudy has been moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/11 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends over central Mexico. However, the ridge is expected to weaken by tomorrow, as Trudy moves closer to Hurricane Simon. The two tropical cyclones, which are currently about 700 n mi apart, are forecast to be within 500 miles of each other by hour 36, possibly close enough to influence each other's steering. By Thursday, increasing mid- to upper-level troughiness in the west-central Gulf of America and steering from potential interaction with Simon should cause Trudy to turn north-northwestward, and possibly northward for a time Thursday night or Friday. As Simon finally moves northwest and weakens late in the forecast period, it should allow the ridge to build back in and induce Trudy to make a leftward turn back toward the northwest. There remains significant track spread among the models, but there has been an overall rightward shift in the model guidance, mainly during the first 60 to 72 h of the forecast, so the new NHC track forecast is well to the east of the previous one through 72 h. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the HCCA and GDMI at 36-72 h. At day 5, the NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous one, but well to the north of the latest GDMI, HCCA, and TVCN, but the forecast that far out is highly uncertain. Environmental conditions continue to look quite favorable along Trudy's track through the next 60 hours, and the NHC forecast continues to call for rapid intensification. By hour 72, there is increasing confidence that Trudy will reach stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should induce significant weakening by days 4 and 5, regardless of how much land interaction Trudy incurs. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance throughout the entire 5-day period, and is similar to the HCCA and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. NHC continues to call for Trudy to get close to the coast of Mexico as a major hurricane, and given the track uncertainty, residents of southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to closely monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to possibly implement their hurricane plan. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 11.5N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 12.1N 100.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 12.9N 101.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.7N 101.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 14.6N 102.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 16.5N 103.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 18.4N 105.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 142.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 174 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION THAT WAS DEVELOPING AROUND THE 0600Z HOUR, HAS EXPANDED AND PERSISTED, AND NOW COVERS AND OBSCURES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A DEARTH OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY PRECLUDES ANALYSIS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE CONVECTION IS TRULY ORGANIZING OR JUST FLARING IN ISOLATED POCKETS. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE MASSES, ONE NORTHWEST AND ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC, AND CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SIGN OF ROTATION, SUGGESTING THAT THE STRUCTURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED. AS THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAD SUGGESTED, THE MOISTURE FIELD SOMEWHAT IMPROVED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW (ULL) REPOSITIONED TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION, INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS VERY DRY AIR LURKING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LONG EXTRAPOLATION OF A 140736Z GPM COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON AN OVERALL INCREASE IN BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS, LOW SHEAR AND MARGINALLY IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALL AROUND THE LLCC, WHICH IS ITSELF COCOONED IN A TINY POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 141210Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 141210Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 141140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: COMPACT SIZE OF THE SYSTEM; DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THE INNER CORE; RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 48 HOURS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS FROM THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF KYUSHU. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY PERSISTENT. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY PEAKING IN ITS INTENSITY CURRENTLY, OR WILL REACH ITS PEAK IMMINENTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. ALL GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TD 28W, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE DRY AIR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, SHEAR BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL, AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 12 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, THEN A GRADUAL TURN WESTWARD THEREAFTER. SEVERAL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER TAU 12 AND ONLY A…

WDPN32 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.6N 161.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 989 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXHIBITING WEAK, TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS PROXIMATE TO THE ASSESSED CENTER, WHICH RAPIDLY SHEAR AND DISSIPATE WESTWARD. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE LLCC EXECUTED A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP AFTER DECOUPLING FROM A MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE MESOVORTEX. THE REMNANT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS BUT IS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST OF THE LLCC. A 141024Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED THAT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS STRUCTURALLY ASYMMETRIC, ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE COMPACT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST; HOWEVER, A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC RESOLVED IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY THE CONCURRENT ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE; SSTS ARE VERY WARM, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE STRONGER), AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MODESTLY FAVORABLE, PROVIDING STEADY WESTWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOPING MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE ESTABLISHING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. BY TAU 24, THE TRAJECTORY WILL BECOME LOCKED, AND 29W WILL TRACK ON A STEADY 280-285 DEGREE HEADING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTH. TRACK SPEEDS WILL BE SLOW IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS LOOP. BY TAU 24, 29W WILL ACCELERATE TO 13 KNOTS AND MAINTAIN THAT TRANSLATION SPEED THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 96, BEFORE DECELERATING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE KEY QUESTION WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY; SPECIFICALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT RELATIVE TO THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. IN THE SHORT- TERM, THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID- LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR THESE REASONS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY 10 KNOTS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MARKEDLY NEAR TAU 36, WHEN THE DRY AIR IS MIXED OUT, VWS RELAXES, AND ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE SYSTEM ATTAINING A VERTICALLY ALIGNED, SYMMETRICAL VORTEX. ASSUMING 29W ACHIEVES SYMMETRIZATION BY TAU 48, THE FORECAST SPECIFICALLY CALLS FOR RI BETWE…