🚨 Randolph; Calhoun; Terrell; Dougherty; Lee; Baker: Special Weather Statement issued July 29 at 1:34PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL 🚨 Washington, UT: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 29 at 11:33AM MDT until July 29 at 12:15PM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Pointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; Northern Tangipahoa; Central Plaquemines; Lower Plaquemines; Central Jefferson; Coastal Jefferson; Upper Lafourche; Lower Lafourche; Upper Terrebonne; Lower Terrebonne; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Northern Hancock; Northern Harrison; Northern Jackson: Heat Advisory issued July 29 at 12:33PM CDT until July 29 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 St. James; St. John The Baptist; Upper St. Bernard; Lower St. Bernard; Southeast St. Tammany; Western Orleans; Eastern Orleans; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Upper Jefferson; Upper Plaquemines; Upper St. Charles; Central St. Charles; Lower St. Charles; Southern Hancock; Southern Harrison; Southern Jackson: Extreme Heat Warning issued July 29 at 12:33PM CDT until July 29 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 St. James; St. John The Baptist; Upper St. Bernard; Lower St. Bernard; Southeast St. Tammany; Western Orleans; Eastern Orleans; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Upper Jefferson; Upper Plaquemines; Upper St. Charles; Central St. Charles; Lower St. Charles; Southern Hancock; Southern Harrison; Southern Jackson: Heat Advisory issued July 29 at 12:33PM CDT until July 30 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 Pointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; Northern Tangipahoa; Central Plaquemines; Lower Plaquemines; Central Jefferson; Coastal Jefferson; Upper Lafourche; Lower Lafourche; Upper Terrebonne; Lower Terrebonne; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Northern Hancock; Northern Harrison; Northern Jackson: Heat Advisory issued July 29 at 12:33PM CDT until July 30 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 Lafayette; Pontotoc; Lee; Itawamba; Calhoun; Chickasaw; Monroe: Heat Advisory issued July 29 at 12:31PM CDT until July 29 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Memphis TN 🚨 Lee; Phillips; Tunica; Coahoma; Quitman; Panola; Tallahatchie; Yalobusha: Heat Advisory issued July 29 at 12:31PM CDT until July 29 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Memphis TN 🚨 Southern Cayuga; Onondaga; Tompkins; Cortland: Special Weather Statement issued July 29 at 1:28PM EDT by NWS Binghamton NY 🚨 Montgomery: None
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2026
Genevieve is feeling the impacts of moderate northwesterly shear and
mid-level dry air this morning. In addition, an earlier AMSR-2
microwave satellite pass indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle
had started early this morning, and a new eyewall is becoming
evident on infrared and first light visible satellite imagery. As a
result of this process, warming cloud tops are noted to the south
and west of the eye, and new convection on the north and east side
are leading to colder cloud tops less than -70 C. Objective
satellite estimates range from 81-99 kt, and the latest TAFB
estimate was 5.5/102 kt. The initial intensity is set at a
potentially generous 100 kt for this advisory.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 7 kt,
wedged between a strong mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S.
and northern Mexico and weak ridging to the northwest. This general
motion and a slight increase in forward speed is forecast through
the rest of this week into this weekend as the aforementioned
mid-level ridge expands westward into the eastern Pacific. Later
this weekend, Genevieve will turn toward the northwest then
north-northwest ahead of an upper-level low developing northwest of
the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory and falls between the latest corrected (HCCA) and
simple (TVCN) consensus aids.
The eyewall replacement cycle has led to the weakening of Genevieve
this morning. Further weakening is expected through tonight as the
hurricane experiences moderate northwesterly shear. On Thursday,
Genevieve is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and move into an
increasingly dry mid-level environment into this weekend, supporting
additional weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted further downward during the next 48 h, and still remains on
the higher end of the consensus guidance. Genevieve is forecast to
fall below hurricane strength by Friday and become post-tropical on
Saturday, when the system may struggle to produce organized
convection.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 119.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 19.2N 120.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 19.9N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 20.6N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 21.4N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 22.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.0N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.7N 139.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 03/1200Z 26.9N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN)
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.2N 167.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 254 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 12W SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFYING ONCE AGAIN, AFTER HAVING
QUICKLY REBOUNDED FROM THE SLIGHT WEAKENING INDUCED BY THE EARLIER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). 12W HAS A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND
SLIGHTLY WOBBLY EYE MEASURING 15NM IN DIAMETER. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), ROBUST DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND EXCESSIVE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
(OHC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE CLEAR EYE IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 291230Z
CIMSS AIDT: 121 KTS AT 291230Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 123 KTS AT 291230Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 20-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING
FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 12W (DOLPHIN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A COMPLEX RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. AROUND
TAU 72, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE STEERING STR
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE STR TO REBUILD TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOP A WESTWARD EXTENSION. THIS
CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN
AFTER TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH ITS PERIOD OF
VIGOROUS INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER. DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO
REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 48 AT AN ANTICIPATED 155 KTS. GIVEN
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A PEAK HIGHER THAT 155 KTS IS
VERY POSSIBLE. AFTER TAU 48, 12W WILL WEAKEN AS ITS INTENSITY
BECOMES UNSUSTAINABLE SIMULTANEOUS TO TRACKING INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER
OHC VALUES WHICH WILL EXACERBATE ITS SELF-INDUCED UPWELLING.
ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES (ERC) ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
INTRODUCE UNPREDICTABLE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE
PRESENTLY REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LESS THAN
120NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS
MINIMAL FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT. THE HAFS-A
SOLUTION DEPICTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 170 KTS AT TAU 48, WHILE
COAMPS-TC (BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM BOUNDARY CONDITION SOLUTIONS) DEPICT
A PEAK BETWEEN 145-150 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN COAMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN HAFS-A AND IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE …
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: NNW (330°), 5.8 kt | Gust: 7.8 kt
Pressure: 29.99 rising | Air Temp: 85.5 °F
Water Temp: 86.4 °F | Dew Point: 77.2 °F
Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 0.7 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
