🚨 North Walton; Central Walton; Holmes; Washington; Jackson; Inland Bay; Calhoun; Inland Gulf; Inland Franklin; South Walton; Coastal Bay; Coastal Gulf; Northern Liberty; Southern Liberty: Special Weather Statement issued August 2 at 1:34PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL 🚨 Beaver, PA: Tornado Warning issued August 2 at 1:32PM EDT until August 2 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Pittsburgh PA 🚨 Central Douglas County: Heat Advisory issued August 2 at 10:32AM PDT until August 5 at 11:00PM PDT by NWS Medford OR 🚨 Western Siskiyou County; Eastern Curry County and Josephine County; Jackson County: Heat Advisory issued August 2 at 10:32AM PDT until August 6 at 11:00PM PDT by NWS Medford OR 🚨 Southern Willamette Valley: Red Flag Warning issued August 2 at 10:31AM PDT until August 3 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Portland OR 🚨 Western Columbia River Gorge in Oregon and Washington: Fire Weather Watch issued August 2 at 10:31AM PDT until August 4 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Portland OR 🚨 West Central Highlands; Jemez Mountains; Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass; Espanola Valley; Santa Fe Metro Area; Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area; Lower Rio Grande Valley; Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood: Heat Advisory issued August 2 at 11:29AM MDT until August 3 at 8:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Northwest Plateau; West Central Plateau: Heat Advisory issued August 2 at 11:29AM MDT until August 2 at 8:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Northwest Plateau; West Central Plateau: Heat Advisory issued August 2 at 11:29AM MDT until August 3 at 8:00PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm; Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 NM: Small Craft Advisory issued August 2 at 1:28PM EDT until August 3 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington NC
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
500 AM HST Sun Aug 02 2026
Genevieve is feeling the effects of west-southwesterly shear and dry
mid-level air this morning. Convection is displaced to the north of
the center and is quickly diminishing, and the center is now
completely exposed. A recent AMSR-2 pass indicated that the vortex
was tilted with height, with the low-level circulation displaced
from the mid-level center. Despite the tilt, the low-level
circulation remains intact, although it was notably weaker on the
southern side. Recent objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
range from 31-48 kt, while the TAFB estimate was 2.5/35 kt. Given
these estimates and the degraded satellite appearance, the initial
intensity has been set at 40 kt for this advisory.
The tropical storm is moving toward the west-northwest around 12 kt,
along the southwest periphery of a ridge centered over the
southwestern United States. This motion is forecast to continue over
the next 36 h or so, before Genevieve turns toward the northwest and
slows. Environmental conditions will become increasingly hostile,
likely prohibiting any additional strengthening. In fact, organized
deep convection is expected to diminish later today, and the latest
NHC forecast shows the system becoming post-tropical by tonight.
Intensity guidance remains tightly clustered, and the forecast lies
within the middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 24.5N 138.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 25.2N 140.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z 26.0N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/0000Z 26.7N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 27.3N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 28.0N 145.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 28.6N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Adams/Hagen
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 23.6N 150.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 530 NM EAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
(TY) 12W MIDWAY THROUGH ITS FOURTH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC),
WITH A DISTINCT MOAT ALREADY WRAPPED MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE
INNER EYEWALL. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS BECOMING MORE SPARCE AS THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED AND CLOUDTOPS HAVE WARMED TO -75C
OR LESS. THIS ONGOING ERC IS EXPECTED TO TAKE LONGER AND MAY WEAKEN
THE STORM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE IN
ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED 50 KT AND 64 KT WIND RADII USING
THE 020753Z RCM-1 SAR DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 021130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 100 KTS AT 091130Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 108 KTS AT 021130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W (DOLPHIN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AROUND TAU 36, THE
STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A
SECOND STR CENTERED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 120. BETWEEN TAU
72-120, A STRONG, DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NORTH OF THE POLAR FRONT JET
WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, INDUCING SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK
SPEEDS FOR 12W. REGARDING INTENSITY, 12W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS IT CONTENDS WITH LOWER OHC
VALUES AND, IN LATER TAUS, ITS COLD WAKE AS THE SPEED OF ADVANCE
SLOWS. WITH ALL OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAINING SIMILAR TO
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS, OHC IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
WEAKENING. VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 50-75 KJ PER CM SQUARED
BEGINNING BEFORE TAU 12. IN THE LIKELY SCENARIO THAT DOLPHIN FAILS TO
COMPLETE THE ONGOING ERC, IT COULD HASTEN WEAKENING AND COMPOUND THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LOWER OHC. THE EYE AND WINDFIELD WILL REMAIN QUITE
LARGE THROUGH TAU 120, BRINGING IMPACTS TO THE ENTIRETY OF THE
JAPANESE RYUKU ISLANDS REGARDLESS OF CENTER POSITION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120. OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS, ALL MODELS EXCEPT GSM DEPICT 12W PASSING NORTH OF OKINAWA.
ADDITIONALLY, ALL BUT ONE EXPERIMENTAL AI-BASED MODEL DEPICT A
TRACK TO THE NORTH OF OKINAWA, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST AND POSITIONING RELATIVE TO OKINAWA. ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD MEASURES AT APPROXIMATELY 270 NM, WITH…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SSW (210°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 15.5 kt
Pressure: 29.94 rising | Air Temp: 86.7 °F
Water Temp: 86.5 °F | Dew Point: 81.1 °F
Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 2.0 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
