ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the low-level center this morning, remaining resilient to the dry mid-level environment. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 35 to 48 kt. Using these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. Given warm sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C, some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 h or so. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase later tonight. As the shear increases and the mid-levels remain quite dry, with relative humidity values in the mid 30s, Fay should gradually weaken. The system is expected to lose deep convection once again over the weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The only change to the forecast is that dissipation has been delayed, as the global models continue to show the remnant low meandering over the central Atlantic for a few more days. The storm continues to move westward with an estimated initial motion of 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest is expected to being in a day or so as Fay becomes a vertically shallow cyclone and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 29.8N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 800 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 Gonzalo remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with wind shear displacing the deep convection over the eastern and southern portions of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS are around 35-40 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data depicting 40 kt and a steady satellite appearance, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 40 kt. The initial motion remains north-northwestward at 340/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving north-northwestward during the next couple of days, steered by the flow of a deep mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic. As the trough lifts northwestward later in the forecast period, the steering currents will become very weak, and Gonzalo is forecast to slow down and meander over the eastern Atlantic. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. The official NHC track forecast is lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and GDMI aids. Gonzalo has about 12 to 18 hours within a marginally conducive environment for some strengthening, with sea surface temperatures near 27-28 deg C. After that time, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, becoming fairly strong by day 2. Along the forecast track, sea surface temperatures will also cool, and mid-level relative humidity values will begin to drop into the 50, and then 40 percent range. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. Global model-simulated infrared satellite imagery depicts Gonzalo becoming devoid of deep convection in about 2 to 3 days. Thus, the forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time, and it is expected to remain a remnant low through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect, today and will continue through tonight. 2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo Verde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal today through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be possible along the western coast of Africa with some isolated flash flood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.2N 22.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.4N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.0N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 23.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.8N 24.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 20.5N 24.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 24.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 22.2N 25.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Odalys Special Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Recent conventional satellite imagery indicates that Odalys has rapidly intensified into a category 4 hurricane. UW-CIMSS Objective intensity estimates have also increased significantly over the past few hours, ranging from 115-124 kt. Based on the satellite presentation, and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this special advisory. There were no changes made to the track or wind radii forecasts. The next advisory will be issued at 1500 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 Since the previous advisory, Polo's eyewall and core cloud-top temperatures have cooled with a very wide and complete ring of cloud-top temperatures below -70C surrounding the eye, with a growing area of cloud-top temperatures colder than -75C surrounding most of the eye. In addition, GOES-18 infrared eye temperatures have warmed significantly since the previous advisory, recently measured near 19C. The latest TAFB Dvorak number is 7.0/140 kt, while DMINT and SATCON have been hovering around 135-136 kt. Based on the improved structure, Polo is assigned an initial intensity of 140 kt for this advisory, making it a category 5 hurricane again. The initial motion is westward, or 275 degrees at 10 kt, so this motion continues to take the hurricane farther away from mainland western Mexico. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Polo is currently being steered by the flow on the south side of a well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge that is building westward over northern Mexico. This steering regime should continue through today. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther west, with Polo is expected to recurve northward and northeastward around the western periphery of the ridge. The track guidance is generally in agreement on this scenario, although there are still notable differences in forward speed among the models in the 3-5 day time frame. The official forecast is similar to the previous one through 72 hours, but is faster toward the northeast at day 4-5 compared to the previous forecast. The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the HCCA and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean through 96 hours, but is to the right of the simple consensus TVCN. Confidence is high that Polo will make landfall in Baja California Sur and then mainland Mexico, after moving through the Gulf of California. Polo will continue to move over very warm waters and in a low vertical wind shear environment through today. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through today. By Saturday, a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin due to some increase in shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance, and shows the system still near major hurricane strength while it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Rapid weakening is expected when the cyclone crosses the peninsula and moves into mainland Mexico due to land interaction and a further increase in vertical wind shear. It should be noted that moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be carried a long distance into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 107.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.6N 110.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 112.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 21.7N 113.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 23.3N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 26.4N 111.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 29.0N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.7N 129.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 358 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF A ROUGHLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE. A RECENT 250444Z ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS RESOLVED STRUCTURAL DETAILS OF THE VORTEX BENEATH THE CDO CANOPY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS, WHILE THE SURFACE LLCC REMAINS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL DECOUPLING HAS DIMINISHED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES SUGGEST RELATIVELY LIGHT DEEP- LAYER SHEAR, WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR TEMPORARILY RETARDING VERTICAL ALIGNMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BOW-SHAPED BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF 25W, SUGGESTING THAT AT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS, SHEAR IS RELAXING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CORE AND ENVIRONMENTAL VENTILATION IS DIMINISHING, FAVORING PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THE TILTED NATURE OF THE VORTEX. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 250640Z CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 250540Z CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 250540Z CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 250444Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 250540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGH MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SHEAR; DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CORE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLANK. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 25W CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE LARGE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TRANSLATION SPEED WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND A SECONDARY STR OVER CENTRAL CHINA. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN RYUKYU ISLANDS. BEYOND TAU 48, THE STR TO THE EAST PROGRESSES RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE ELONGATING ALONG A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST AXIS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER JAPAN, AND THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW TS 25W TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE NORTHERN RYUKYUS AND THE JAPANESE MAIN ISLANDS FROM TAU 48 ONWARDS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 25W REMAINS TEMPORARILY CONSTRAINED BY MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL FIELDS, HOWEVER, SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL DILUTE/MIX OUT AND SHEAR…