Catherine's Tropical Cyclone Watch

🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Christian, MO; Webster, MO; Wright, MO: Flood Advisory issued June 26 at 6:23AM CDT until June 26 at 12:30PM CDT by NWS Springfield MO 🚨 Houston; Humphreys; Dickson: Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:21AM CDT by NWS Nashville TN 🚨 Clay, IL; Richland, IL: Flood Warning issued June 26 at 6:16AM CDT by NWS Lincoln IL 🚨 Allen, KS; Neosho, KS: Flood Warning issued June 26 at 6:10AM CDT until June 26 at 1:15PM CDT by NWS Wichita KS 🚨 Gallatin; Crittenden; Caldwell; Union; Webster; Hopkins; Henderson; Daviess; McLean: Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:08AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY 🚨 Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:07AM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 Reno, KS: Flood Warning issued June 26 at 6:06AM CDT until June 26 at 11:15AM CDT by NWS Wichita KS 🚨 Lyon; Trigg; Caldwell; Hopkins; Christian; Muhlenberg: Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:03AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY 🚨 Cedar, MO: Flood Warning issued June 26 at 6:00AM CDT until June 27 at 11:30PM CDT by NWS Springfield MO

Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook

A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the tropycal package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.

Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook

Valid: 11 UTC 26 Jun 2026

Select a Storm

MEKKHALA (WP072026)

Type: TS Max Wind: 35 kt Min Pressure: 992 hPa Position: 28.0, 128.0 Basin: West Pacific

HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.

WDPN31 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.0N 128.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 740 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEKKHALA) AS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) COMPLETELY DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION AND IS A SHELL OF ITS FORMER SELF. THE 20-25KT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (SHEAR) IS ALSO PRESENT IN ANIMATED IMAGERY, EVIDENCED BY THE MIDDLE AND HIGH ETAGE CLOUDS STREAKING EFFORTLESSLY ACROSS THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM OKINOERABU, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45NM FROM THE CENTER, REPORTED 27 KTS AT 0500Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, POOR OUTFLOW, AND A RELATIVELY DRIER ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CORE. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE (26-27 C); HOWEVER, 07W IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 260740Z CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 260740Z CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 260740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 260452Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 260740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: MEKKHALA WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS IT COMPLETES ROUNDING THE STR CENTERED TO ITS EAST AND ACCELERATES POLEWARD. 07W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NO LATER THAN TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET BY THAT POINT. ETT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 36 AS 07W BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED AND EXHIBITS BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS. REGARDING INTENSITY, MEKKHALA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE IT TRANSITIONS; HOWEVER, THE POSSIBILITY FOR GREATER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, WITH NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEMBERS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DEVIATES SLIGHTLY FROM INTENSITY AIDS, WHICH DEPICT 07W INTENSIFYING FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE DRASTICALLY WEAKENING. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THIS OUTCOME WAS DEEMED UNLIKELY, THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN

HIGOS (WP082026)

Type: TS Max Wind: 45 kt Min Pressure: 995 hPa Position: 28.4, 134.6 Basin: West Pacific

HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.

WDPN32 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.4N 134.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 489 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS) AS A HIGHLY SHEARED, SHALLOW VORTEX TRACKING VERY QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED AND IS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MINIMAL CONVECTION THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO SUSTAIN IS SHEARED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 08W IS LOCATED IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COOL (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), POOR OUTFLOW, AND A RELATIVELY DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 260700Z CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 260700Z CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 260700Z CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 260451Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 260700Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: RELATIVELY DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 08W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE IT FINISHES ROUNDING THE STR CENTERED TO ITS EAST. BY TAU 12, HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. NEAR TAU 12, 08W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT TRACKS FARTHER POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ETT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 24. REGARDING INTENSITY, HIGOS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, THE POSSIBILITY FOR GREATER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, WITH NEGLIGIBLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEMBERS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 08W WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12; HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS DEPICT A MORE DRASTIC WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN TAU 12-24. THE DISCREPANCY IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE DEGRADATION TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

ECMWF 10-m Streamlines

This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.

Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.

This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.

Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.

ECMWF Predictions

No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.

Environmental Indicators

Hypothetical TC Drift Paths

This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.

The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.

Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.

Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.

Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)

This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities. The data comes from the Open-Meteo API, which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service) and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.

A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.

NBDC Gulf Buoy Data

This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed, barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which help determine storm structure and intensification.

A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening. Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.

Wind: SE (130°), 7.8 kt | Gust: 9.7 kt

Pressure: 30.06 rising | Air Temp: 84.2 °F

Water Temp: 84.9 °F | Dew Point: 79.2 °F

Swell: 0.7 ft | Wind Wave: 1.3 ft

NWS U.S. Radar

The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network — a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.

GOES 15-min Satellite

The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth, GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation, and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.

GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery

Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops. Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere. These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.

Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.

CJ · TC