ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026 The eye of Marie has become increasingly ragged and misshapen over the past few hours, while cloud tops in its center have begun to cool. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass from earlier this evening depicted a vertically aligned cyclone, but the eyewall remained poorly defined along the western and southwestern sides. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 77-94 kt. However, given the degradation in structure, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Marie is moving northwestward around 6 kt, steered by a strong mid-level ridge anchored over the central United States. This general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. As Marie weakens and becomes more shallow, a turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast as the cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. By midweek, a closed low moving southward along the U.S. West Coast is expected to induce an acceleration toward the northwestward, followed by a turn toward the north. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become less favorable over the next couple days as Marie moves over cooler sea surface temperatures, resulting in slow weakening into early next week. More rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter as increasing wind shear decouples the cyclone and displaces any remaining convection well to the north of its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Marie to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h, followed by dissipation by 120 h. The NHC track and intensity forecasts are very close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.6N 121.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 24.0N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 24.6N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 26.1N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 27.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 31.4N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.9N 129.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 108 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE REEMERGENCE OF THE LOOSE, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM UNDER OBSCURING CONVECTION AND CIRRUS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY TRACKED HAS RECONSTITUTED ITSELF IN THE VICINITY OF LOCALIZED DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF OKINAWA. THAT CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING AND A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THOUGH THE CHANNEL IS STILL PRESENT. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE HAVE BEEN NO SCATTEROMETER PASSES DIRECTLY OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS, SO IT'S DIFFICULT TO CONFIRM THE LOW-LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE OR CHARACTERIZE ITS EVOLUTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ROTATION OBSERVED IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN LIGHT OF THE SYSTEM'S POOR ORGANIZATION AND DISTANCE FROM ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAKENING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, DESPITE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 052340Z CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 052340Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 060020Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK AS A WHOLE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AS A RESULT OF THE 060000Z ANALYZED POSITION, FOLLOWING THE REORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W HAS GONE THROUGH A REORGANIZATION PHASE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND REEMERGED JUST NORTHWEST OF MINAMI DAITOJIMA. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO RESUME IN AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, A POLEWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 60 AS 22W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. PERSISTENT LOW-MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF 22W, INSTEAD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN HONSHU. THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY STRETCHED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AFTER TAU 60, RESULTING IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LLCC IS UNABLE TO REMAIN INTACT UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, IN WHICH CASE DISSIPATION WOULD OCCUR SOONER. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SP…