ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026 The convective organization for Fay has taken a turn downward as wind shear and dry air have started to impact the system. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a 2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity from UW-CIMSS is in the range of 37-47 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is expected to gradually weaken as the shear and dry air build over the cyclone. The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that the northerly shear will continue to increase over the next several hours. The wind shear will make it easier for the dry air to penetrate the core of the cyclone and hinder the development of convection. The simulated ECMWF and GFS satellite imagery show that Fay loses its convection towards the end of the weekend, at which point it would become a post-tropical remnant low. However it is possible that this could occur sooner given the intensity of the wind shear being over 20 kt and mid-level relative humidity less than 40 percent. The current NHC intensity forecast is in line with the guidance suite including the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. Fay's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/4 kt as the storm is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to continue on a west-southwest to southwest heading through the the forecast period as the storm continues to weaken and become a vertically shallow remnant low steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast, however the forward speed has been increased. The current forecast is still in good agreement with the GDMI ensemble mean and HCCA corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 29.8N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 29.7N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 29.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 28.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0600Z 27.6N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 26.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 26.1N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 800 PM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 The overall structure of Gonzalo has changed little today. The circulation is elongated from the north-northeast to south-southwest with the advisory position set as a mean between a couple of low-level vorticity centers on either end of the elongated center. Deep convection remains displaced well to the northeast of the estimated center due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have not changed much, therefore the initial intensity remains 45 kt, in line with the earlier scatterometer data. Gonzalo has been moving more northward today with an initial motion estimate of 350/10 kt. The storm is expected to be steered northward to north-northwestward during the next couple of days between a mid-level trough to its north and a ridge over western Africa. Gonzalo's forward speed is expected to decrease as the system becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the latest Google Deep Mind ensemble prediction. The vertical shear over Gonzalo is forecast to increase significantly on Saturday and with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, weakening should begin by Saturday morning. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that Gonzalo will lose organized deep convection in 24 to 36 hours, and the new NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday morning. The intensity forecast is in best agreement with the typically reliable consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. 2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be possible along the Africa coast with some isolated flash flood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 22.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.6N 22.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.0N 23.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.0N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 20.6N 23.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0600Z 21.2N 24.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 21.7N 24.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 25.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Satellite imagery shows Odalys is still a powerful major hurricane, though the satellite presentation is not quite as impressive as earlier today. The ragged eye of Odalys is surrounded by a ring of deep convection with cold cloud tops of -65 to -75 deg C. Earlier WSF-M passive microwave imagery from 1437 UTC showed a closed ring in the 37 GHz channel, while the 89 GHz image indicated the mid-level eyewall was open to the southwest. The latest Dvorak classification from TAFB was a 5.5/6.0, while recent AiDT, D-MINT, and D-PRINT estimates have fallen to around 105 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 110 kt. The wind radii for Odalys were adjusted based on recent RCM-1 synthetic aperture radar data. Odalys is moving slowly north-northeastward (030/4 kt) within the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to move northward during the next day or two as the aforementioned trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific. By Monday, Odalys is forecast to slow down and turn abruptly to the east and southeast as the increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest track guidance shows a sharper turn than the previous cycle in the 60-96 h time frame, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to reflect this trend. Overall, the NHC forecast remains close to the skillful HCCA aid. Southwesterly shear is expected to markedly increase over the next couple of days, while Odalys' forecast track should take the system over cooler waters by Sunday. As a result, a faster weakening trend is forecast over the weekend, with Odalys likely to lose organized convection and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in 48-60 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and lies slightly above the HCCA and IVCN multi-model aids. Distant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.3N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/1800Z 21.9N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 19.9N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 A NOAA research aircraft has found that Polo remains a very powerful category 5 hurricane. The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft were 165 kt in the northeast quadrant, and since that measurement the central pressure has decreased a couple millibars, to 913. An UAS launched from the plane measured a peak wind just above 200 kt at an altitude just below 500 m, which corresponds to a 10 m wind of 150-155 kt based on an experimental wind reduction model. Taken all together, this data supports an initial intensity of 155 kt. The NOAA aircraft reported that there may be signs of an eyewall replacement cycle beginning. Although this does not appear to be having an impact on the hurricane yet, it does highlight that fluctuations in the intensity of Polo are likely over the next 24 h while it remains over warm waters. After that, some weakening is expected as Polo begins to move into a region with lower ocean heat content and the vertical wind shear increases slightly. However, it is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is still near the upper-end of the intensity guidance and is very similar to the previous advisory. Only small adjustments were made to the official track forecast, with the biggest change being that the anticipated forward motion for Polo is slightly faster in this advisory. Polo is still expected to turn gradually northwestward, then northward this weekend as it moves around the western side of a ridge centered over northern Mexico. Then early next week an upper-level trough approaching from the northwest will likely cause the hurricane to turn northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central Mexico. The AI models, notably GDM and the experimental WeatherNext3, generally show a slightly faster motion than most of the dynamical guidance, and the model spread has increased at 72 h and beyond. The forecast confidence is correspondingly lower with this advisory. The NHC forecast is a blend of the consensus and continuity with the previous advisory. Based on the forecast track, watches could be required for portions of Baja California Sur as soon as tonight. Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required as early as tonight for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 109.2W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.4N 110.6W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.2N 112.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1800Z 32.0N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.9N 127.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 276 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (SURIGAE) CONTINUING TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS TUCKED UNDERNEATH THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), AS WELL AS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 251658 AMSR3 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ALMOST FULLY CLOSED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A PARTIALLY CLOSED AND SLIGHTLY OFFSET RING OF CONVECTION REFLECTED IN THE 89 GHZ IMAGE, INDICATING A SLIGHT BUT LESSENING NORTHWESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSESSED TO BE LOW (5-10 KTS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT, BOTH IMPROVING RADIALLY AS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS ABATED, AS WELL AS MAINTAINING A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR3 DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGREEMENT ACROSS AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 251712Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 251750Z CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 251750Z CIMSS D-MINT: 59 KTS AT 251713Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 251710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 25W HAS BEGUN TO SLOW IN TRACK SPEED AND TURN POLEWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. TRACK SPEED IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLOWER OUT TO TAU 36 AS 25W ENTERS THE COL BETWEEN THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE WEAKER STR CENTERED FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. BY TAU 36, THE STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STR AS WELL AS THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BOTH AID IN THE RECURVATURE AND NORTHEASTWARD TURN OF 25W. ONCE POLEWARD OF THE STEERING STR, TRACK SPEED IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS 25W NEARS THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, CAUSING THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, TS 25W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY 25 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, JUST SHORT OF THE TRUE RATE OF RI AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE AXIS OF THE STR AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE ALL OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. 25W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 85 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TIME OF CPA TO KADENA AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. AFTER THIS POINT, 25W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NORTHWESTERLY VWS INCREASES AND SSTS COOL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR 25W TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY 25W VERTICALLY ALIGNS ITS INNER CORE AS WELL AS HOW LONG IT WILL BE IN THE…