🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Lane, KS; Scott, KS: Flood Advisory issued June 25 at 6:24AM CDT until June 25 at 9:30AM CDT by NWS Dodge City KS 🚨 Alcona, MI; Alpena, MI: Flood Advisory issued June 25 at 7:24AM EDT until June 25 at 10:30AM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI 🚨 Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm; Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM; Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm; Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM: Special Marine Warning issued June 25 at 6:24AM CDT until June 25 at 7:30AM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 Gove, KS; Logan, KS; Wallace, KS; Wichita, KS: Flood Advisory issued June 25 at 6:12AM CDT until June 25 at 10:00AM CDT by NWS Goodland KS 🚨 Terrebonne Bay; Barataria Bay; Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River LA out 20 nm; Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya River LA from 20 to 60 NM; Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued June 25 at 6:12AM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 Lane; Ness; Finney; Hodgeman: Special Weather Statement issued June 25 at 6:11AM CDT by NWS Dodge City KS 🚨 Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 nm; Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out 20 NM; Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm; Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued June 25 at 6:07AM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM: Special Marine Warning issued June 25 at 6:04AM CDT until June 25 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA 🚨 Ashley; Morehouse: Special Weather Statement issued June 25 at 6:01AM CDT by NWS Jackson MS
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR
027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 24.8N 126.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 141 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 07W (MEKKHALA) FIGHTING AGAINST THE LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EVIDENT BY THE RADIALLY
EXPANDING CIRRUS FILAMENTS. THE VWS HAS REDUCED IN THE LAST 6
HOURS, CAUSING 07W TO REMAIN TILTED WHILE REMAINING ATTACHED TO THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
OBSCURED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), BUT ONLY BARELY, AS THE
TIGHTEST LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AROUND THE CENTER IS BEGINNING TO
POP OUT FROM UNDER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CDO. A 250442Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, CONSISTENT WITH THE VWS
MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY THE VWS, MODERATE OUTFLOW,
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, MARGINALLY
OFFSET BUT THE WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED 250442Z AMSR2 DATA AND LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING
PRESENT IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND
CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 250630Z
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 250630Z
CIMSS AIDT: 47 KTS AT 250630Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 45 KTS AT 250510Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 250630Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE
STEERING STR CENTERED TO THE EAST AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.
AROUND TAU 12, MEKKHALA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH TO OKINAWA, BEFORE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MAINLAND JAPAN. AT TAU 24-36, 07W WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH (30-35 KTS) VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, SHALLOWING THE VORTEX AND INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). MEKKHALA IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION
BETWEEN TAU 48-60 AS THE STORM PASSES SOUTH OF TOKYO. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 07W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM TAU 0 THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT TAU 60. DESPITE THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, 07W WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL AS
IT UNDERGOES AND COMPLETES ETT, MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH TAU 60.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS 07W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, CAUSING ALONG-TRACK DISCREPANCIES.
NOTABLY, THE AI-BASED AND PHYSICS-BASED ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE TRACKERS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS.
DISREGARDING ECMWF…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 135.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 589 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 28 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM 08W (HIGOS) WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS, COLLAPSING DEEP
CONVECTION, AND DRY AIR PRESENT SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. A 250637Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A SINGLE
OVERSHOOTING TOP LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS THAT 08W HAS ACCELERATED SIGNIFICANTLY, AND IS NOW
TRAVELLING AT A FORWARD SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 28 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(29-30 KTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), OFFSET BY THE WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE RELATIVELY DRY SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED 250637Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 250540Z
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 250730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 250730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 250637Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 250730Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 08W IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL ABOUT TAU 12. FOLLOWING TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE
STR AXIS, BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL TAU 36. BETWEEN
TAU 24-36, THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH VWS NEARING 30
KTS WILL INITIATE A SWIFT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALOFT.
INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN SUSTAINING SURFACE
INTENSITIES TOWARD 45 KTS BY TAU 36 AS TS 08W BECOMES A VERY SHALLOW,
SYMMETRIC COLD-CORE LOW. THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
TO FILL INTO AN OPEN TROUGH PERSISTS; HOWEVER, ELEVATED SURFACE
INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD REGARDLESS OF THE ULTIMATE FATE OF HIGOS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT FROM TAU 0-12, BUT IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER AND
DISPLAYING SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
36. A FEW SOLUTIONS CHARACTERIZE A SHALLOWING AND LOSS OF THE
VORTEX PRIOR TO TAU 36, WHILE OTHERS ILLUSTRATE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND EVENTUAL FILLING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN TAU
24-36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXPECTED QUICK EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OR COMPLETE DISSIPATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, BUT GENERALLY,
RELIABLE MODELS A…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SE (140°), 3.9 kt | Gust: 5.8 kt
Pressure: 30.02 rising | Air Temp: 83.3 °F
Water Temp: 84.6 °F | Dew Point: 77.2 °F
Swell: 1.0 ft | Wind Wave: 0.7 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.