🚨 Gila, AZ: Flash Flood Warning issued August 12 at 5:31PM MST until August 12 at 8:30PM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ 🚨 Broome, NY; Delaware, NY; Susquehanna, PA; Wayne, PA: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 12 at 8:30PM EDT until August 12 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Binghamton NY 🚨 Central Chelan County: Special Weather Statement issued August 12 at 5:30PM PDT by NWS Spokane WA 🚨 Jackson; Laurel; Knox; Clay: Special Weather Statement issued August 12 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY 🚨 Logan County; Phillips County: Special Weather Statement issued August 12 at 6:28PM MDT by NWS Denver CO 🚨 Northern Stillwater: Special Weather Statement issued August 12 at 6:28PM MDT by NWS Billings MT 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Imperial, CA: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 12 at 5:27PM PDT until August 12 at 5:45PM PDT by NWS Phoenix AZ 🚨 Cherry, NE; Sheridan, NE: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 12 at 6:24PM MDT until August 12 at 7:00PM MDT by NWS North Platte NE 🚨 La Paz, AZ: Flash Flood Warning issued August 12 at 5:24PM MST until August 12 at 8:30PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026
900 PM GMT Wed Aug 12 2026
The satellite presentation of Cristobal has continued to degrade
today. Approximately 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is
displacing the slowly diminishing convection to the south and east
of the now completely exposed center. Objective and subjective
intensity estimates span a wide range, from 27-47 kt. The initial
intensity of 40 kt is maintained for this advisory, placing some
weight on the earlier ASCAT data.
Cristobal is moving eastward at around 090/18 kt, steered by a ridge
over the north-central Atlantic to the northeast of the storm and a
subtropical ridge to the south. The cyclone is expected to turn
northeastward and gradually slow down tonight into Thursday as it
moves along the southwestern periphery of the northern Atlantic
ridge. Cristobal will move over progressively cooler waters while
encountering drier mid-level air and strong northerly wind shear.
These increasingly hostile environmental conditions should result in
slow, steady weakening over the next day or so, with dissipation
expected Thursday night or Friday morning. The official NHC track
and intensity forecasts remain near the middle of the consensus
guidance and are closest to the HCCA solution.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 37.2N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 37.8N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 39.6N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Adams/Pasch
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (PEILOU) WARNING
NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 30.4N 165.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 698 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (PEILOU) WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS UNFAVORABLE,
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MARGINAL
(26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A WIDER SPREAD OF CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 121730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 121730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 121509Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 121900Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK EASTWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 13 IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
INTENSITY, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, IMMINENT CROSSING OF THE 26 C ISOTHERM AND WILL SOON BE
EXPERIENCING OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED UNDER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES, ULTIMATELY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 80 NM
AT TAU 36. THE ONLY OUTLIERS OF NAVGEM AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND PREDICT
DISSIPATION OF 13W BY TAU 12, BUT PORTRAY A SIMILAR TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN
LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EXCLUDING NAVGEM. INTENSITY
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND DEPICTING DISSIPATION
SOONER THAN THE BULK OF GUIDANCE AS TD 13W IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE
THE DISCUSSED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NANGKA) WARNING
NR 002//
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 122100
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 24.7N 146.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 278 NM EAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (NANGKA) WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EFFECTS
OF VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EVIDENT IN EIR AS ANY PUFFS OF
CONVECTION STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ATTACHED TO THE QUICKLY MOVING LLCC. THE
INCREASED TRACK SPEED NORTHEASTWARD HAS RESULTED IN A RELOCATION OF
INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF EIR IMAGERY AND AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW AND
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 32 KTS AT 121710Z
CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 121730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 121730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 121652Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 121730Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED TRACK SPEED
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASED TRACK SPEED OF OVER 20 KTS AS THE
COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY MONSOONAL
FLOW AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24, THIS INCREASED TRACK
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE IN PROPELLING TD 16W ON AN EASTWARD
TURN, AS THE NER BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS OUTCOME, AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SHALLOW,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW
TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND CAUSE A POLEWARD TURN
BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24 RATHER THAN AN EASTWARD TRACK. THIS SCENARIO IS
NOT DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST, BUT DOES HAVE A LARGE ENOUGH AMOUNT OF
MODEL SUPPORT TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY, TD 16W
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 30 KTS UNTIL TAU 24 BEFORE
BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSING
TD 16W TO ELONGATE, WEAKEN, AND ULTIMATELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY
TAU 48.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AS THE
PHYSICS-BASED AND AI MODELS DISPLAY A BIFURCATION SCENARIO BEGINNING
BY TAU 24, RESULTING IN A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 470 NM AT TAU 48. ALL
PHYSICS-BASED MODELS DEPICT TD 16W FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND TURNING POLEWARD AT TAU 24, WHILE ALL AI MODELS
DEPICT AN EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO TH…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ESE (110°), 5.8 kt | Gust: 7.8 kt
Pressure: 29.97 falling | Air Temp: 86.5 °F
Water Temp: 87.1 °F | Dew Point: 78.3 °F
Swell: 1.3 ft | Wind Wave: 0.7 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
