ZCZC NFDTCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KWNH DDHHMM Tropical Depression Edouard Discussion Number 10 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL052026 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026 Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For a list of rainfall observations and wind reports associated with Edouard, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS5 with the WMO header ACUS45 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html. Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue near the center of Edouard for the next several hours. 2. Heavy rain bands from Edouard will persist over east-central Texas into Thursday morning before becoming more scattered by midday Thursday. Flash flooding, including additional significant flash flooding, is expected over the Piney Woods area of eastern Texas. Isolated moderate to major river flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 31.6N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 32.3N 95.7W 15 KT 15 MPH 24H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Lamers NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 Karina's satellite presentation has degraded this morning, characterized by warming cloud tops in infrared imagery and an eye that has become more cloud-filled. The system is still annular, although there are signs of the system losing that structure in recent microwave imagery that depicts the eastern eyewall has started to thin. The Data T-number from the latest TAFB Dvorak classification has decreased to T5.5, with a Current Intensity (CI) of 6.5. Objective intensity estimates have also been gradually decreasing since the previous advisory and currently range from 112 to 127 kt. Given the degraded satellite appearance and a blend of the available intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory, which could be a little generous. The steering pattern is well established, and a westward to west-northwestward motion is anticipated over the next several days while the system is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. Later in the forecast period, a mid-level low is forecast to move into the central Pacific north of the Hawaiian Islands. This feature will cause the ridge to weaken, inducing a more northwestward turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is based on a blend of the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids. Karina will track over marginally warm sea surface temperatures over the next few days with low wind shear. However, the system will be moving into a drier, more stable airmass by tomorrow. This should induce a gradual weakening trend during the next day or so. Wind shear is than expected to increase, combined with the track moving over cooler SSTs by 72 h, which will result in a more steady rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance in the near term, given the still annular structure, followed by a faster rate closer to some of the consensus intensity aids. By Day 5, the system is forecast to become post-tropical as models show the system becoming devoid of convection. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 133.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.8N 137.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.2N 139.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.6N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 21.2N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.1N 143.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 24.1N 145.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 26.4N 149.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 200 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026 Since the previous advisory, Marie has experienced bit of a hiccup in its convective structure, with warming clouds tops near the center aside from a recent burst wrapping around west of the center. The most recent microwave pass from this morning showed a banding type eye attempting to form, though it was struggling to close off on its northwest side. In addition, there was an RCM-3 SAR pass earlier today with an interesting structure, showing a small core, but with stronger winds occuring along the outer bands of Marie's circulation. This structure hints that it might take some time for the inner-core to fully consolidate. For now, the 18 UTC TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate was T3.5/55 kt, while the objective intensity estimates range from 53 to 67 kt. Thus, the initial intensity will remain 60 kt this advisory, keeping Marie just shy of hurricane intensity. Marie appears to be a little right of the prior forecast track, but is still moving off to the northwest, with the estimated motion at 310/10 kt. Over the next several days, a narrow mid-level ridge located to the north and northeast is expected to steer the tropical cyclone generally off to the west-northwest, gradually slowing its forward motion in the process as the ridge slowly weakens. Beyond 60 h, there continues to be significant cross-track spread that develops among the model guidance, related to how much an amplified mid-latitude trough, off the western United States coast, erodes this ridge. For this cycle, some of the more reliable track aids, ECMWF, Google DeepMind (GDMI), HCCA, actually show Marie turning back westward in the day 4-5 time frame, as the ridge holds to the north of the cyclone while the mid-latitude trough moves inland over the western United States. However, there remain a minority of solutions that show a more rightward track if the trough fully erodes the ridge steering Marie. The NHC track forecast this cycle is slightly right of the prior one for the first 48-60 h, following the latest trends in the GDMI and HCCA aids, but now bends a little more westward in days 4-5, also following trends in these aids. Intensity-wise, the earlier SAR imagery in addition to a partial ASCAT-C pass show Marie has a broad wind field with a larger-than-normal radius of maximum wind. This could prevent more rapid development over the next couple of days despite the favorable environmental conditions. Thereafter, while sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), diagnosed by SHIPS guidance between 27-28 C, appear favorable, some of these waters were recently churned up by the last tropical cyclone along this track (Iselle last week), and the HAFS-A/B hurricane-regional models suggest the large wind field of Marie could upwell some cooler waters underneath. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a somewhat lower intensity than earlier, peaking at 80 kt in the day 2-3 time frame. This intensity forecast favors the hurricane-regional models over the latest SHIPS guidance given the potential for ocean upwelling. Marie should be crossing the 26 C SST isotherm after 72 h, and weakening is expected to begin in earnest beyond this time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.0N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.7N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.5N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 21.5N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 23.7N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 046// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.4N 118.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 198 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STILL SHEARED CYCLONE, WITH MODEL ANALYSES INDICATING 10-20 KT OF EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, CONSISTENT WITH THE LOPSIDED CONVECTIVE DISTRIBUTION FOCUSED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES BENEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER. THE LLCC ITSELF IS CHALLENGING TO IDENTIFY WITH PRECISION, AS IT IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS, AND RADAR IMAGERY ONLY REVEALS THE SHAPE OF THE CURVED BANDS OUTLINING ITS WESTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON 021337Z ASCAT DATA SHOWING A BAND OF GALES JUST OFF THE CHINESE COASTLINE, CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 021450Z CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 021435Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 021720Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A TRANSFER OF STEERING MECHANISM FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER BORNEO TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE STORM IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY AT THE MOMENT AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE STR AND APPROACH THE CHINESE COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN AROUND 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRAJECTORY INLAND. WHILE THE STORM ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOSTILE TO INTENSIFICATION, THE LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH STRENGTHENING, IF ANY. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SAUDEL'S LANDFALL OCCURRING AT A SIMILAR INTENSITY TO ITS PRESENT VALUE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS FOR 35 KT INTENSITY JUST AFTER LANDFALL IN 12 HOURS, BUT A TEMPORARY BUMP ABOVE 35 KT IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THAT POINT. QUICK DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 12 AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE OVERALL BLEND OF AI-BASED AND PHYSICS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY AIDS, ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.8N 130.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT MAY BE DEVELOPING A MORE WELL-DEFINED CORE WIND FIELD THAN IT PREVIOUSLY POSSESSED, WITH COMPACT ROTATION EVIDENT. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR PUSHING DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONFINED SOUTHWARD. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS PULSED IN RECENT HOURS, WITH A STRONGER AND MORE CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE BURST COVERING THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE COMPACT-LOOKING CIRCULATION. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, WHERE GALES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY GROUND STATIONS IN THE DAITO ISLANDS ABOUT 45 NM FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 021658Z CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 021740Z CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 021740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 021743Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 021820Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS BEEN WRESTLING WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR SOME TIME, RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR THAT HAVE THUS FAR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION. RECENT SIGNS OF THE CORE WIND FIELD BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND MORE PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUGGEST THAT SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE BEFORE KROVANH PASSES OVER THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN. THE JTWC FORECAST PROJECTS A SHORT-TERM PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT AT TAU 12. THE STORM'S SHORT-TERM MOTION IS BEING GOVERNED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN, WHICH WILL DRIVE KROVANH NORTHWESTWARD FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, PASSING BETWEEN OKINAWA AND AMAMI OSHIMA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. THEREAFTER, STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME WEAK AND COMPLEX AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS EASTWARD OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND SEA OF JAPAN, USHERING IN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS WAKE. THE RESULTING LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY COOL AND DRY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HALT 22W'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS IN AROUND 36 HOURS, FORCING A STALL AND EVENTUALLY A NEAR-REVERSAL OF THE STORM'S MOTION IN A SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, BACK INTO THE VICINITY OF OKINAWA IN AROUND 60 TO 72 HOURS. DURING THE STALL, THE JUXTAPOSITION OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STJ OVERLAPPING THE SURFACE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, LIKELY WEAKENING 22W SOMEWHAT, THOUGH MOST MODELS RETAIN GALES DURING THIS TIME, GRADUALLY EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE WESTERN SEMI…