🚨 Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM; Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM; Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM: Marine Weather Statement issued August 1 at 1:34PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL 🚨 Pulaski; Wayne; McCreary: Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 1:31PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY 🚨 Russell; Cumberland; Clinton: Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 12:27PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Wasatch Mountains; Western Ashley National Forest; Western Uintah Basin; Southern Ashley National Forest; Tavaputs Plateau; Manti National Forest; Central Utah West Desert; Central Utah Mountains; Color Country Mountains; Grand Staircase: Red Flag Warning issued August 1 at 11:23AM MDT until August 2 at 10:00PM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Color Country West Desert; Mojave Desert: Red Flag Warning issued August 1 at 11:23AM MDT until August 2 at 10:00PM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Ventura County Beaches: Beach Hazards Statement issued August 1 at 10:13AM PDT until August 1 at 5:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 🚨 Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands; Malibu Coast; Los Angeles County Beaches: High Surf Advisory issued August 1 at 10:13AM PDT until August 1 at 5:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 🚨 San Luis Obispo County Beaches; Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches; Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast; Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast; Lake Casitas: Beach Hazards Statement issued August 1 at 10:13AM PDT until August 1 at 5:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 🚨 Valdez Narrows: Small Craft Advisory issued August 1 at 9:00AM AKDT until August 1 at 5:00PM AKDT by NWS Anchorage AK
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026
500 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026
Genevieve’s deep convection has been gradually decreasing over the
past day or so, and there is now only a relatively small area of
cloud tops colder than -30C, mainly in the northeast quadrant.
However, a 1032 UTC AMSR-2 pass indicates that a relatively large
area of shallow to moderate convection persists, and is wrapped
halfway around the low-level center over the northeast semicircle.
The subjective current intensity (CI) estimate from TAFB has
decreased to 2.5/35 kt. The latest objective AiDT, D-PRINT, D-MINT
and SATCON intensity estimates range from 37-42 kt. Given the
latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity is brought down to
40 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt.
This general motion will continue over the weekend as a low- to
mid-level ridge remains north of the cyclone. By Monday, a gradual
turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected as the ridge
weakens north of the cyclone due to a deep-layer low/trough that
will be located off to the north-northwest of Genevieve. Very
little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, which
lies close to the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered through day 3, so there is high
confidence in the track forecast.
Genevieve has been traversing 25-26C sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs), while under weak vertical wind shear and within a relatively
dry, stable environment. The cyclone will move over progressively
colder SSTs over the next 18 h or so (below 24C by that time).
Southwesterly vertical wind shear will then increase to moderate
levels (15-20 kt) in 24-36 h while the environment remains dry and
stable. These conditions will lead to continued gradual weakening,
and Genevieve is likely to lose its convection and become
post-tropical in about 36 h. Thereafter, the remnant low should
gradually spin down with dissipation occurring just after 96 h, as
depicted by the global models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 24.5N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 25.5N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 03/1200Z 26.4N 143.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/0000Z 27.4N 144.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 28.4N 145.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 31.1N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.6N 156.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 843 NM EAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON
(TY) 12W HAVING JUST COMPLETED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC),
RESULTING IN A LARGE, CLEAR EYE MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 50 NM IN
DIAMETER. THE EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTRACT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF REINTENSIFICATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) MEASURING 75-100 KJ PER CM SQUARED.
THE 011117Z ASCAT UHR REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 123 KTS, SUPPORTING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LARGE EYE FEATURE IN
ANIMATED EIR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ADJUSTED RADII USING THE 011121Z METOP-C
ASCAT DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 011310Z
CIMSS AIDT: 115 KTS AT 011310Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 123 KTS AT 011130Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W (DOLPHIN) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING
STR CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHWESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, DRIVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD.
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 36-48, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO A
SECOND STR CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, REINFORCING
THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY,
DOLPHIN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY RECOVER NOW THAT
IT COMPLETED ERC. 12W MAY MOMENTARILY REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A MARGINALLY MORE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TAU 24. BY TAU 36, VWS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AND OHC VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 50-75 KJ PER CM SQUARED,
CAUSING INCREASED IMPACTS FROM THE STORM'S COLD WAKE. 12W IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 60, THEN WEAKEN AT AN INCREASED PACE
FROM TAU 72-120. ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE LIKELY AS
LONG AS THE STORM MAINTAINS TYPHOON INTENSITY, WITH SUBSEQUENT EVENTS
FURTHER WEAKENING THE CORE AND EXPANDING THE WIND FIELD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVER TIME. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
STEMS FROM THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS AND THEIR
UNKNOWN IMPACTS TO BOTH THE INTENSITY AND WIND FIELD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRA…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SW (220°), 11.7 kt | Gust: 13.6 kt
Pressure: 29.99 falling | Air Temp: 86.7 °F
Water Temp: 87.4 °F | Dew Point: 80.6 °F
Swell: 0.3 ft | Wind Wave: 1.6 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
