🚨 La Paz, AZ: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 31 at 5:33PM MST until August 31 at 5:45PM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ 🚨 Dona Ana, NM; Luna, NM: Dust Advisory issued August 31 at 6:32PM MDT until August 31 at 8:00PM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 🚨 Eastern Culberson County; Reeves County Plains; Davis Mountains; Davis Mountains Foothills: Special Weather Statement issued August 31 at 7:30PM CDT by NWS Midland/Odessa TX 🚨 Garfield, UT; Kane, UT: Flash Flood Warning issued August 31 at 6:30PM MDT until August 31 at 9:00PM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Garfield, UT: Flash Flood Warning issued August 31 at 6:27PM MDT until August 31 at 8:45PM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Bent, CO; Kiowa, CO; Prowers, CO: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 31 at 6:26PM MDT until August 31 at 7:15PM MDT by NWS Pueblo CO 🚨 Socorro, NM; Torrance, NM; Valencia, NM: Flood Advisory issued August 31 at 6:26PM MDT until August 31 at 9:30PM MDT by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Yuma County; Cheyenne: Special Weather Statement issued August 31 at 6:26PM MDT by NWS Goodland KS 🚨 Washington, UT: Flash Flood Warning issued August 31 at 6:25PM MDT until August 31 at 9:30PM MDT by NWS Salt Lake City UT
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data through early this
afternoon showed the low-level circulation of this system gradually
becoming better defined, and it was sufficient to designate it as
Tropical Depression Five for the 18 UTC intermediate advisory. This
is consistent with the improved radar and satellite presentation of
the system, with a prominent curved band now evident to the south of
the center. The aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of
38 kt earlier today, and TAFB provided a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate
at 18 UTC. These data support a 30-kt intensity for this advisory.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to
investigate the system tonight.
The center of the depression lies to the north and east of prior
estimates based on the aircraft data and recent surface
observations. A low-level ridge over the southeastern United States
is steering the system toward the west-northwest (300/5 kt), and
this general motion should continue through the next couple of days.
The system is expected to move onshore along the northwestern Gulf
Coast within the warning area on Tuesday, with the updated 24-h
forecast point just offshore. There were no significant changes to
the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast was
adjusted slightly north of the previous prediction mainly due to the
repositioning of the center.
The tropical cyclone is fairly compact and has a small radius of
maximum wind. Although it only has about a day over the very warm
Gulf waters, strengthening is expected within a generally low shear
environment. Since the small size of the system makes it more
susceptible to quicker intensity changes, the NHC intensity forecast
has been raised and now lies above almost all of the intensity
guidance, including HCCA and IVCN. The legacy hurricane regional
models (HWRF/HMON) show even more strengthening than is forecast
here. While this does not appear to be the most likely scenario,
interests in the warning area are reminded to closely monitor the
latest forecast updates.
Key Messages:
1. The system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on
Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Bolivar,
Texas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, Louisiana.
2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and
Wednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely
across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may
also be possible.
3. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, Texas, to
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana. Peak values of up to
4 feet above ground level are possible within the watch area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 28.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 28.8N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 29.6N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 30.6N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 31.6N 96.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
This morning's visible and enhanced infrared imagery indicate
Karina's cloud pattern, particularly in the northwestern part of the
eyewall, has deteriorated over the last several hours. The lastest
TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate has decreased from the previous
classification, and the CMISS objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 110 to 115 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory.
Karina's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/8 kt. A narrow subtropical mid-level ridge anchored north of the
cyclone should steer the hurricane in this general heading through
the forecast period. Only slight adjustments were made to the NHC
official forecast which is based on a blend of the HCCA and the
GDMI aids.
The environmental conditions should remain favorable for the short
term, and slight intensity fluctuations are possible while Karina's
inner core continues to experience structural changes. Through the
remaining forecast period, a weakening trend is expected to occur
while Karina moves into a drier, more stable air mass and traverses
cooler oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast remains
slightly above the skilled intensity models, and lies close to
the NOAA HCCA consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 17.5N 125.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.7N 127.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.5N 131.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 18.9N 133.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.6N 136.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.3N 140.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 21.5N 144.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts
NNNN
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: SSW (200°), 3.9 kt | Gust: 3.9 kt
Pressure: 29.97 steady | Air Temp: 85.6 °F
Water Temp: 87.8 °F | Dew Point: 80.1 °F
Swell: 1.6 ft | Wind Wave: 0.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
