ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Iselle's cloud pattern continues to gradually improve in geostationary satellite imagery despite the moderate west-northwesterly shear in the environment. The cyclone contains a core of deep convection with an impressive trailing curved band extending southward on the east side of Iselle. Some recent microwave satellite overpasses show a similar structure. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB is T3.5/55 kt, and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 59 kt. Based on the improving structure, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory, northwestward, or 310/11 kt. A mid-level ridge north of Iselle is forecast to strengthen, causing Iselle to turn west-northwestward on Tuesday, and that motion should then continue through the end of the week. The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and lies very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI). Iselle remains over warm waters and within a moist environment. However, the cyclone is experiencing moderate west-northwesterly vertical wind shear. Water temperatures and moisture will remain quite favorable for another 12 to 24 h, but the shear is forecast to increase slightly to about 20 kt in about 12 h. Given the recently improving structure, the NHC forecast continues to call for the system to strengthen to a hurricane in 12 h. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance suite for the first 36 h of the forecast. Beyond 24 h, gradually decreasing ocean temperatures and moisture will lead to steady weakening, and the NHC intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope from hour 48 onward. The latest ECMWF and GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that Iselle could become a remnant low as early as Thursday. The time of when Iselle becomes a post-tropical cyclone has been moved forward to 72 hours. After that, the models indicate the remnant low opening up into a trough between day 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 19.2N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 20.1N 119.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 20.9N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 21.4N 123.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 21.9N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 22.4N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 23.5N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102026 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Corrected typo in the last sentence of the third paragraph. The small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south-southwest of Tropical Storm Iselle (Invest EP91) has had a well-defined surface circulation since last night, confirmed by scatterometer passes. Visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation continues to be well-defined. Over the past 12 hours, thunderstorm activity has increased significantly over the center, and at 18Z, TAFB provided a classification of T2.0/30 kt. Furthermore, a recent GPMI overpass highlights the curved banding structure of the convection. Thus, Tropical Depression Ten-E has formed. Track guidance is in good agreement on a north-northeastward motion over the next 12 hours, with a bend toward the north and some acceleration in 12-24 h as the circulation of Tropical Storm Iselle draws in Tropical Depression Ten-E. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) and the Simple Consensus (TVCN). The forecast is also near the average of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Some slight strengthening is possible since the depression is over warm water and within a moist environment. Some of the global model fields show the cyclone attaining tropical-storm-force winds over the next 12 h, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Every model shows this system dissipating by hour 36, and the official forecast will also show dissipation by that time. The depression should open up into a trough by hour 36 as northerly vertical wind shear increases as it moves closer to Iselle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 13.5N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 14.9N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.6N 132.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 248 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SAUDEL) AS HAVING DEVELOPED A DISTINCT DRY SLOT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EYEWALL, WHICH HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED IT, ALONG WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WESTERN QUADRANT CAUSED BY THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE EYE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY FILLED WITH CLOUDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SLIGHT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 241302Z ASCAT DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 101 KTS AT 241830Z CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 241830Z CIMSS AIDT: 92 KTS AT 241830Z CIMSS D-MINT: 96 KTS AT 241712Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 92 KTS AT 241830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W (SAUREL) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN. 17W IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE RYUKU ISLANDS JUST BEFORE TAU 24. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 24, 17W WILL ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, CAUSING IT TO SLOW ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A STR CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING AUTHORITY OVER SAUDEL, INDUCING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 120. LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 72-96, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST NO LATER THAN TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 17W IS ASSESSED TO BE IN ITS TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 72 AND RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND FORECAST FROM TAU 96-120. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH VWS REMAINING BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST FORCING ITS WAY INTO THE CORE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS REDUCING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED SUPPORT IS FILLING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORSENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTRIBUTING TO THE GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BEFORE TAU 120 AS THE RUGGED TERRAIN SHREDS THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFA…

WDPN32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.5N 107.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 136 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (NARRA) WITH A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTS TS 18W MAKING AN EASTWARD TURN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEMS RAIN BANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED TO BE MARGINAL WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHEAST BEING OFFSET ONLY MARGINALLY BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON 241302 METOP-B ASCAT DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND TO A LESSER DEGREE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 241740Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 241740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 38 KTS AT 241305Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 241710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A NORTHWARD EXTENSION IMMINENTLY, CAUSING 18W TO TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 12 AND SKIRT ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 OVER THE PENINSULA. REGARDING INTENSITY, TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 12 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH VWS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30 KTS BY TAU 36 AND INTRODUCE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE SYSTEM. LANDFALL AND SUBSEQUENT TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL FURTHER HASTEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE VORTEX WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM AT TAU 48. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EXCLUDING NAVGEM AND JGSM AS OUTLIERS TO THE WEST. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ONLY OUTLIER OF GFS DEPICTING A TEMPORARY SPIKE IN INTENSITY AT TAU 12, BUT AGREEING ON A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN

WDPN33 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.3N 138.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 424 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (ATSANI) AS A HIGHLY SHEARED AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 19W HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH AS IT DECOUPLED FROM THE VERY SHORT-LIVED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES FEEDING INTO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND NO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, INSIGNIFICANTLY OFFSET BY THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES AND THE SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER JAPAN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 241840Z CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 241940Z CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 241940Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 241910Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD, WITH A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 19W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TYPHOON 17W THROUGH TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT, IT IS EXPECTED TO GET OVERWHELMED BY THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND DISSIPATE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WITH PERSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, QUICKLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, 19W HAS BECOME INCREDIBLY ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS, INDICATING THAT DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, THOUGH MANY MODELS DROP THE VORTEX AFTER TAU 12. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 19W WILL STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN