ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Isaias has gotten better organized during the past several hours with a large area of deep convection near and northeast of the center. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the center is re-forming a bit to the north of the previous advisory nearer to the mid-level center, with an estimated pressure of 1000 mb derived from dropsonde data. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt in consideration of increase in satellite organization and the 4-mb dropsonde pressure fall, close to the UW-CIMSS SATCON values and many of the other objective estimates. The storm is moving east-northeast at 7 kt. The motion should gradually bend northward and increase during the next few days as a trough along the northwestern Gulf coast amplifies and the subtropical ridge east of Florida builds westward. This pattern should cause a fast-moving Isaias to approach the northern Gulf coast by Friday afternoon. Model guidance continues to be somewhat split, with the AI-based models generally on the right side of the model envelope, and the physics based models on the left side. The new NHC forecast is nudged a bit eastward, but isn't as far east as the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) or Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). It is worth noting that many of the stronger solutions tend to be on the eastern half of the guidance and faster, which necessitates a variety of watches at this time. With the center re-formation, the low- and mid-level centers appear to be coming into better alignment. This structural change could facilitate rapid intensification during the next day or two given light-to-moderate shear along the forecast track, near-record SSTs for this time of the year and a very moist environment. Near landfall, increasing shear could cause some weakening, but it isn't certain how fast the winds will diminish. Regardless, Isaias should be growing in size as it approaches the northern Gulf coast due to a trough interaction. The latest guidance is very close to the last NHC intensity forecast, so little changes were made, and the NHC prediction is just below the corrected-consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen into a strong hurricane before approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf coast, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued from The Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown Florida. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. The risk of damaging hurricane force-winds is increasing over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and Mississippi. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 4. Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula over the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 22.4N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 23.4N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 26.6N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 29.2N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 32.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Recent satellite imagery shows that Rachel's deep convection has waned over the last couple of hours, however this could be due to the convective daily minimum. If this is the case, then there is a good chance for deep convection to return later. The northern side of the cyclone still shows the impact of easterly shear and dry air intrusions. The eye of the hurricane is still well defined based on the proxy-visible satellite imagery. Looking at a combination of the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is being held at 70 kt. The initial motion for the cyclone is west-northwestward, or 285/6 kt. As of now, Rachel is being steered by high pressure located over the western United States. However, toward the end of the week, a large mid- to upper-level trough is expected to approach from the northwest. This will cause Rachel to slow down and then turn and accelerate toward Baja California and southern California, and the updated NHC forecast track shows Rachel as a post-tropical cyclone at 96 h very near the coast. The current NHC forecast provides a 120-h track point for forecast continuity, however it is likely that the cyclone could dissipate sooner once it moves over land. The rest of the forecast is similar to the previous track with minor adjustments made based on the latest HCCA and GDMI forecast aids, except for the track point at 120 h. The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken as it moves into an unfavorable environment of cooler sea-surface temperatures and limited moisture. Given how resilient Rachel has been to the environment, the current intensity trend is on the upper end of the guidance envelope. There is still a higher-than-normal amount of uncertainty to the intensity for the latter portion of the forecast. The trough should induce plenty of wind shear, and the simulated satellite guidance does show that the cyclone loses convection for a brief time before it comes back again. The current NHC forecast does show a post-tropical cyclone at 96 h, however, it is possible that it could still have tropical-storm-force winds at that point. In general, the current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one with a few changes past 60 h, based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.9N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 21.3N 122.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 22.7N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 23.5N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 25.2N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 31.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 12/1200Z 37.9N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 900 AM CST Wed Oct 07 2026 Visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has continued to become better organized. Curved convective bands are evolving over the northern and western quadrants of the system. The low-level circulation, although a bit elongated from southwest to northeast, is significantly well-defined to designate the formation of a tropical cyclone. The advisory intensity is set at 30 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate of T2.0 from TAFB. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on a generally west-northwestward track for the next couple of days, along the southern side of a weak mid-level ridge. In 48 hours, the system is likely to turn toward the northwest in response to a 500 mb trough approaching the Baja California peninsula. Thereafter, the cyclone should move generally northward on the southeastern side of the trough. The official track forecast is on the right side of the guidance envelope. Since the cyclone will be in an environment of low vertical wind shear, abundant low- to mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures, steady strengthening is forecast this week. The system is likely to become a hurricane in 48 hours or so. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.6N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.0N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.3N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.7N 105.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 068// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.8N 160.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1770 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WHICH NOW LACKS DISCERNIBLE SPIRAL BANDING. A SHARP EASTERN EDGE TO THE CIRRUS CANOPY IS CONSISTENT WITH 25-35 KTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE. A 070815Z SSMIS PASS REVEALED MODEST VORTEX TILT WITH HEIGHT. A 070933Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED AND BECOME ASYMMETRIC, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATED ASCAT-B DATA, HEDGED WESTWARD OF THE OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND THE T4.0 DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RCTP. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 070940Z CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 071140Z CIMSS AIDT: 68 KTS AT 071140Z CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 071149Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 68 KTS AT 071140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 15E HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AND DECELERATE THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT APPROACHES A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL ERODE THE STR, ALLOWING TY 15E TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD, CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 60, AND ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS WILL EASE TO 15-20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHICH WILL SLOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 15E TO BOTTOM OUT AT 60 KTS AT TAU 12 AND TAU 24, THEN BRIEFLY REINTENSIFY WHEN IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND TAPS INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONNECTED TO A JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER, STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AS SHEAR INCREASES, THE SST FALLS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND THE VORTEX MOVES BENEATH THE JET STREAM. INCREASING BAROCLINICITY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH WILL COMPLETE BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER, REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF THE TROUGH ON THE STR. DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD AND SLOWER SCENARIO, WHILE THE AI MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT AN EARLIER AND SHARPER RECURVATURE. ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST TRACKER. NOTABLY, SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE FASTER AI MODELS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET USING A BLEND OF THE AI-MODEL MEA…

WDPN32 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 33.7N 147.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 402 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A GRADUALLY DEGRADING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON (TY) 26W. WHILE THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE REMAIN EVIDENT, CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE CORE CONTINUE TO WARM, AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT IS BEGINNING TO ERODE. A 061010Z GMI PASS REVEALED AN INTACT LOWER-LEVEL EYEWALL, WHILE INDICATING WEAKENING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL EYEWALL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE 26-DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THESE DETRIMENTAL CONDITIONS OUTWEIGH THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OUTLINE OF THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, REFLECTING THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY THE T4.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM PGTW AND THE DECREASING OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED EAST OF HONSHU AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 061140Z CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 061140Z CIMSS D-MINT: 73 KTS AT 061008Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 81 KTS AT 061210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30-40 KTS SST: 25-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED FROM 36 HOURS TO 24 HOURS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 26W IS NOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KTS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH VWS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS AND SST DECREASING TO 14-16 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 24. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE INNER CORE, RESULTING IN STEADY WEAKENING. BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL ALSO INCREASE AS TY 26W INTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM HONSHU AND BECOMES COUPLED WITH THE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE, TY 26W WILL RAPIDLY COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24 WHILE MAINTAINING TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS. THE EXPANSIVE, POTENT WIND FIELD WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH SEAS. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) DUE TO THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALL AVAILABLE AIDS DEPICT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24, AND THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 24, NEAR THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN

WDPN33 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.7N 162.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 315 NM SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WHICH IS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS COMPACT CIRCULATION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE FACE OF 15-20 KTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -90 DEGREES CELSIUS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE CENTER, THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THE LLCC, INDICATING THAT THE VORTEX IS STILL VERTICALLY MISALIGNED. A 070930Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATED AND SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY MAY HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE T3.5-4.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR EXTRAPOLATION AND ASCAT DATA, SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 070930Z CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 071150Z CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 071150Z CIMSS D-MINT: 42 KTS AT 070858Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 071150Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 27W WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 60 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A STR POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND MIGRATE WESTWARD, INDUCING A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRANSLATION SPEED. TYPHOON (TY) 15E, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, WILL PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AS TS 27W APPROACHES THIS WEAKNESS AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AND SLOW DOWN. THE PERSISTENT SHEAR AND STRUCTURAL ISSUES PLAGUING TS 27W WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. VWS WILL BEGIN EASING AFTER TAU 12, REACHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY TAU 24, AND PROVIDE THE SYSTEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRAVERSES VERY WARM SST AND VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) EXCEEDING 150 KJ PER CM2. THESE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ENABLE THE COMPACT VORTEX TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AFTER TAU 12 TO A PEAK OF 120 KTS AT TAU 60. BY TAU 96 AND TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER LOWER OHC, WHICH WILL INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. COMPACT CIRCULATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY VERY AGGRESSIVELY, AND THE FORECAST RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK INTENSITY MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THIS CYCLE, LARGELY DUE TO ECMWF DEPICTING THE FASTEST POLEWARD MOTION AND RECURVATURE, WHILE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVOR THE MOST WESTWARD TRACKS. STILL, …