🚨 Apache, AZ; Coconino, AZ; Navajo, AZ: Flood Warning issued November 1 at 10:30PM MST until November 2 at 7:00AM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ 🚨 Chaves, NM; Curry, NM; De Baca, NM; Quay, NM; Roosevelt, NM: Tornado Watch issued November 1 at 10:29PM MST until November 2 at 1:00AM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Kane, UT; Washington, UT: Flood Warning issued November 1 at 10:28PM MST until November 2 at 8:00AM MST by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Quay County; Curry County; Roosevelt County; De Baca County: Special Weather Statement issued November 1 at 10:27PM MST by NWS Albuquerque NM 🚨 Garfield, UT; Kane, UT: Flood Warning issued November 1 at 10:26PM MST until November 2 at 3:45AM MST by NWS Salt Lake City UT 🚨 Montgomery: None 🚨 Hartley, TX; Oldham, TX: Tornado Warning issued November 1 at 11:22PM CST until November 1 at 11:45PM CST by NWS Amarillo TX 🚨 Cimarron, OK; Texas, OK: Tornado Warning issued November 1 at 11:18PM CST until November 1 at 11:45PM CST by NWS Amarillo TX 🚨 Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm: Special Marine Warning issued November 2 at 12:17AM EST until November 2 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Melbourne FL 🚨 Coconino, AZ; Navajo, AZ: Flood Warning issued November 1 at 10:15PM MST until November 3 at 10:00AM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ
Active Tropical Systems & Formation Outlook
A whole-basin summary of all active tropical cyclones and the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, generated with the
tropycal
package. Select a storm below for its official forecast and model guidance.
Summary & NHC 7-Day Formation Outlook
Valid: 05 UTC 02 Nov 2026
Select a Storm
MURASU
(IO042026)
Type: TSMax Wind: 60 ktMin Pressure: 995 hPaPosition: 13.6, 82.6Basin: North Indian
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDIO31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (MURASU) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.5N 81.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 663 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 04B (MURASU) WITH A CONSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) WITH COOL CLOUD TOPS MEASURING AT -80 C, OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
CHENNAI REVEALS THE SYSTEM COMING INTO RANGE AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS
FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALTHOUGH MID-LAYER VWS IS ASSESSED TO BE
CLOSER TO 20 KTS, POSSIBLY INHIBITING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AS AGENCY DVORAK FIXES REMAIN CONSISTENT AT 3.5 AND
CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OSCILLATE BETWEEN 55-60 KTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 020000Z
CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 012300Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 62 KTS AT 012357Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 012330Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE INTENSITY AT TAU 24 IS 15 KTS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
FORECAST DISCUSSION: 04B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND
24. A REASSESSMENT OF THE 1800Z POSITION SHIFTED THE EXPECTED POINT OF
LANDFALL SOUTH BY ROUGHLY 30 NM. TRACK SPEED WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT
APPROACHES LAND AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE WEST
BUILDS AND WEAKENS THE STEERING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PRIMARY STEERING
STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 A SLIGHT
WESTWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM BECOMES PRIMARILY
STEERED BY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. REGARDING INTENSITY, 04B IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A WEAKENING
TREND AS IT MAKES LANDFALL, WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION QUICKLY CAUSING
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 48.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF
DISAGREEMENT BEING THE TRACK BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS MODELS STRUGGLE
TO TRACK THE WEAKENED VORTEX OVER LAND. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
OPERATIONAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND AGREE ON A WESTWARD TURN, AT VARYING TRACK
SPEEDS AFTER TAU 36. GFS, NAVGEM, GEFS MEAN, AND THE EXPERIMENTAL
GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND WEATHER MESH MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF INDIA AT TAU 24. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
COAMPS-TC AND DECAY-SHIPS BEING THE ONLY MODELS TO SHOW FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OUT TO TAU 24, AND THEN ALL MODELS AGREEING ON SHARP
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. NOTABLY, THERE WERE NO RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) AIDS THAT TRIGGERED THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY IS THU…
HAFS and GEFS guidance is only available for storms in the US/NHC domain (Atlantic & East/Central Pacific). For this system, the basin summary and best-track position are shown.
WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 22.3N 141.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 152 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
30W (IN-FA) WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (ULCC) BECOMING
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE EAST FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AS MODERATE (20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM. A 012144Z F-16 MICROWAVE SUITE REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL
CONVECTION ERODED ON THE WESTERN FLANK WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL MAINTAINS
A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE OFFSET TO THE WEST. A 012324Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS DEPICTED ONLY THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE WIND FIELD
MAINTAINING OVER 50 KTS, WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS THE
WEAKEST WIND SPEEDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (5-
10 KTS) DEEP-LAYER VWS BEING OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED
MID-LAYER VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND CONTINUED UPWELLING OF COOLER
(25-26 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMBINED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SPREAD OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 012324Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 012144Z
CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 012330Z
CIMSS AIDT: 66 KTS AT 012330Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 68 KTS AT 020030Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 020030Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: OCEANIC UPWELLING OF COOLER SSTS; ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL VWS
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 30W HAS BEGUN A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND
INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AS THE STEERING RIDGE COMPLEX COMPRISED OF TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST SHIFT
WESTWARD, MAINTAINING 30W WITHIN THE COL BETWEEN THE TWO AND THE
EASTERN STR SLOWLY BUILDS. BY TAU 24, A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN STR, CAUSING 30W TO TURN POLEWARD AS
THE EASTERN STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. 30W IS
EXPECTED TO BE POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS BY TAU 60 AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AT TAU 72 AS 30W APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CROSSES
THE 26 C ISOTHERM, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, 30W
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OUT TOTAU 36 AS TRACK SPEED
INCREASES, ALLOWING 30W TO MOVE OVER WARMER (27-28 C) SSTS AND ESCAPE
ITS COOL WAKE. MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FROM TAU 36 TO TAU
60 AS 30W NEARS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN STR AND OUTFLOW ALOFT IS
ENHANCED, FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS IT CROSSES THE 26
C ISOTHERM AND VWS SHARPLY INCREASES, FURTHER ENTRAINING DRY AIR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OUT
TO TAU 72 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 120 NM. BEYOND THIS POINT,
TRACK SP…
ECMWF 10-m Streamlines
This map visualizes near-surface winds from the ECMWF operational model using streamlines — continuous curves that show the direction of the wind at every point. Streamlines help us visually detect patterns of atmospheric flow, such as jets, troughs, and areas of rotation.
Forecasters at the NHC monitor 10-meter wind fields for signs of a closed low-level circulation — a common feature of early tropical cyclone formation. When streamlines wrap into a tight, circular pattern and form a closed loop, it may signal that a system is transitioning from a disorganized disturbance into a structured cyclone.
This early organization of wind flow is a key threshold in classifying an area as a potential tropical cyclone. While other ingredients like convection and mid-level humidity are also necessary, closed low-level circulation is often the first structural milestone forecasters look for.
Look for small, circular loops in the streamlines over oceanic regions — especially where other environmental factors also align for storm formation.
ECMWF Predictions
No active storm found in ECMWF data at this time.
Environmental Indicators
Hypothetical TC Drift Paths
This map displays hypothetical tropical cyclone (TC) paths projected from genesis-favorable zones identified by an environmental mask. These paths are computed using the Emanuel Beta and Advection Model, a physically based framework that estimates the motion of nascent cyclones by combining steering-level winds and planetary rotation effects.
The model blends winds from two critical pressure levels — 850 hPa (lower troposphere) and 250 hPa (upper troposphere) — weighted toward the lower level where most of a tropical cyclone's mass resides. It also incorporates a background component associated with beta drift, which arises from the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude.
Each pink trajectory represents a storm initialized from a grid cell where all five environmental thresholds were favorable: high CAPE, low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, warm SSTs, and positive low-level vorticity. Arrows darken with time, tracing the cyclone’s evolution in 6-hour steps. These tracks can move over land given the steering winds, but in reality these storms weaken quickly when no longer over warm water. This means the tracks that move over significant would likely die out quickly and are not well represented in this model.
Hypothetical storms often drift westward and poleward, steered by large-scale tropical flow and Earth's rotation — this helps forecasters anticipate where early-stage disturbances might evolve into organized storms.
Pressure & Rainfall (hPa)
This chart shows 24-hour forecasts of surface pressure (in hPa) and precipitation (in mm) for select U.S. cities.
The data comes from the Open-Meteo API,
which sources its predictions from high-resolution numerical weather models like ICON (from the German Weather Service)
and ECMWF's IFS. These are advanced general circulation models (GCMs) that solve physical equations governing the
atmosphere — including thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiation — to simulate and forecast future states of weather.
A sudden drop in pressure may signal the approach of a developing storm system. Increasing rainfall intensity often
tracks with tropical activity or frontal systems. These paired indicators help visualize evolving atmospheric instability and potential hazards.
NBDC Gulf Buoy Data
This data comes from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), a division of NOAA responsible for monitoring ocean
and atmospheric conditions using moored buoys, coastal stations, and drifting floats. These sensors play a vital role in
tracking tropical cyclone development by recording variables like wind speed,
barometric pressure, air & sea surface temperatures, and wave height — all of which
help determine storm structure and intensification.
A sudden drop in sea-level pressure or a spike in wind gusts can signal rapid cyclone strengthening.
Water temperature above ~26°C is a key fuel source for tropical cyclones. Wave and swell height give insight
into the storm’s reach and energy transfer across the ocean. Monitoring these in real time helps improve forecasts and early warnings.
Wind: ENE (70°), 9.7 kt | Gust: 11.7 kt
Pressure: 30.02 steady | Air Temp: 80.4 °F
Water Temp: 82.0 °F | Dew Point: 77.0 °F
Swell: 2.0 ft | Wind Wave: 1.3 ft
NWS U.S. Radar
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects radar data using the NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) network —
a nationwide system of over 150 high-resolution Doppler radar stations. Radar works by emitting pulses of energy
that bounce off precipitation (like raindrops, hail, or snow) and return to the radar dish. Doppler radar not only detects the
location and intensity of storms, but also their motion — by measuring shifts in frequency caused by movement of particles toward
or away from the radar site. This allows meteorologists to spot rotating storms and potential tornadoes in real time.
GOES 15-min Satellite
The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) system is operated by NOAA
and provides continuous weather observation over the Americas. Orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth,
GOES satellites deliver high-resolution imagery every 15 minutes, helping track tropical systems, cloud formation,
and atmospheric motion in real time. The Geocolor imagery shown here combines visible and infrared data
to highlight clouds, land, and sea in a natural-looking format.
GOES Band 13 – Infrared (IR) Imagery
Band 13 (10.3 µm) is one of the most important infrared channels for tropical meteorology, measuring emitted radiation from cloud tops.
Colder colors (red, yellow) signal deep convection, where strong thunderstorms punch through the upper atmosphere.
These features often indicate the early stages of tropical cyclone formation.
Most recent GOES Band 13 image. Provided by NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.
