ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 800 PM MST Mon Oct 26 2026 The structure of Vance has degraded significantly over the last several hours as the center of the cyclone has become separated from the convection as seen on visible satellite imagery. Based on a combination of the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. Vance has continued to move slowly to the west, 275/4 kt. The tropical storm is expected to make a turn to west-northwest or northwest over the next 24 h due to a weak mid-level ridge to the north of the system. By Wednesday, a broad mid-level trough near the Baja California Peninsula should force Vance to turn more to the north. The current NHC track forecast remains in good agreement with the most recent GDMI and HCCA models. There is still some model spread in the latter portion of the track forecast, however the current track still favors a more slower storm motion overall. Strong westerly to southwesterly wind shear is expected to persist and increase through the forecast period. However, given the presence of warm water and sufficient atmospheric moisture, the cyclone is currently forecast to weaken only gradually over the next several days. The intensity forecast remains on the upper end of the guidance and brings Vance to a post-tropical cyclone around 72 hours, as the convection will likely be sheared off by the aforementioned trough by that time. It should be noted that it is possible the system could degenerate into a remnant low sooner than currently forecast, however, GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite guidance indicates that intermittent convective bursts could still occur near the center during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across southern Sinaloa, southwest Durango, and coastal sections of Nayarit and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 2. Interests in southwest and west-central Mexico should continue to monitor Vance's progress. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 15.5N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 15.9N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.2N 107.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 18.8N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 22.0N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 23.5N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi NNNN

WDIO31 PGTW 270300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ARNAB) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.0N 84.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 445 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED AND SYMMETRICAL EYE SURROUNDED BY A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY BUT THE EXCELLENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT INTENSIFICATION IS STILL ONGOING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. 90 KTS IS PROBABLY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 84 KTS AT 262012Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 270000Z CIMSS AIDT: 97 KTS AT 270000Z CIMSS D-MINT: 95 KTS AT 270029Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 95 KTS AT 262330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02B CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK PRIMARILY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, INDUCING A NORTHWARD TURN OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE TRACK RETAINS ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AROUND TAU 24 AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE INDIAN COAST. RAPID DECAY OVER LAND WILL BRING DISSIPATION BY TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL FOLLOWED BY A SHARP POLEWARD TURN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS ALSO TIGHTLY GROUPED WITH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND MODELS. A FEW RAPID INTENSITY (RI) AIDS UNSURPRISINGLY TRIGGERED THIS CYCLE AND THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 12 IN RESPONSE, THEN FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST HOW HIGH THE INTENSITY CAN CLIMB BEFORE LAND INTERACTION CAPS IT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 270300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 162.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 385 NM SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 30W WITH A DIMPLE EYE FEATURE THAT REMAINS CLOUD FILLED. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STAGNANT AGAIN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT IT HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DESPITE SITTING OVER ITS OWN COLD WAKE. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES OVER 100 KJ PER CM2 ARE LIKELY PREVENTING THE UPWELLING FROM HAVING AN OVERLY DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON THE INTENSITY. RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO REMAINED FAIRLY GOOD, HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CONSTANT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES ON THE HIGHER END AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ON THE LOWER END. A 262231 METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT GALE FORCE WIND FIELD AND A VERY COMPACT, HIGH INTENSITY CENTRAL CORE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE ONLY REMAINING NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR IS THE LIKELY EFFECT OF COLD WATER UPWELLING. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF HONSHU AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS PHFO: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 270000Z CIMSS AIDT: 108 KTS AT 270000Z CIMSS D-MINT: 114 KTS AT 262304Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 104 KTS AT 270030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER DUE TO THE SLOW TRACK SPEED ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE TRACK MOTION OF TY 30W CONTINUED AT A SLOW 2 KTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR CENTERED SOUTH OF HONSHU AND A NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AND TRANSIT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE NER WEAKENS AND MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST DEPICTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THEN MODESTLY ACCELERATES TO MORE TYPICAL SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, TY 30W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH A WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND SLOW DOWN AGAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATTER WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE LATE TAUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER INCLUDES A SHORT-TERM WEAKENING TREND GIVEN HOW WELL THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SO SLOWLY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN LEVEL OFF AROUND 130 KTS. A WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AFTER TAU 72, WHERE OHC VALUES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM, WITH…